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#11
10-26-2006, 11:23 AM
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Re: Coldcalling 55
I think this hand is well played.
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#12
10-26-2006, 01:16 PM
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Re: Coldcalling 55
You should not be cold-calling here because you have no reasonable expectation that you will get more callers behind you.
You generally need pot odds of at least 5:1 to call with this hand because it most likely has only set value. The odds of hitting your set on the flop are about 7.5:1. The chance of then winning the hand with your set is around 70 or 75%. This means that you need implied odds of over 10:1 to make your call +ev. If you make your set on the flop, after calling one bet pf, you must net over 10 SBs for the hand to make your pf call +ev. When you have to call 2 bets pf, you now must net 20 SBs to make your call +ev. You netted less than 19 SBs in a pot where you got a lot of action after making your hand on the flop. Most 4 player pots are less than 15 BBs.
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#13
10-26-2006, 01:27 PM
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Re: Coldcalling 55
[ QUOTE ]
You should not be cold-calling here because you have no reasonable expectation that you will get more callers behind you. [/ QUOTE ] What if the blinds come along? There's a non-trivial chance of other players coming along, too. [ QUOTE ] You generally need pot odds of at least 5:1 to call with this hand because it most likely has only set value. [/ QUOTE ] Show your math. [ QUOTE ] The chance of then winning the hand with your set is around 70 or 75%. [/ QUOTE ] How do you figure? I don't think this is right: Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 26,730 games 0.005 secs 5,346,000 games/sec Board: Ad 8c 2s equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 01.6162 % 01.62% 00.00% { AKo } Hand 2: 98.3838 % 98.38% 00.00% { 88 } [ QUOTE ] This means that you need implied odds of over 10:1 to make your call +ev. If you make your set on the flop, after calling one bet pf, you must net over 10 SBs for the hand to make your pf call +ev. When you have to call 2 bets pf, you now must net 20 SBs to make your call +ev. [/ QUOTE ] What? Explain your reasoning.
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#14
10-26-2006, 01:29 PM
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Re: Coldcalling 55
Also,
Aussie speaks the turn regarding this hand: It was played well, your line probably got the maximum you could from it, but don't worry too much about situations like this, they are not your biggest problem.
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#16
10-26-2006, 02:23 PM
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Re: Coldcalling 55
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You should not be cold-calling here because you have no reasonable expectation that you will get more callers behind you. [/ QUOTE ] What if the blinds come along? There's a non-trivial chance of other players coming along, too. [/ QUOTE ] I don't believe that you should make a decision here by hoping the blinds come along. You need some reason to believe that they will. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] You generally need pot odds of at least 5:1 to call with this hand because it most likely has only set value. [/ QUOTE ] Show your math. [/ QUOTE ] This is right out of any poker book and I will give you one: "The Theory of Poker" by guess who? page 55 [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The chance of then winning the hand with your set is around 70 or 75%. [/ QUOTE ] How do you figure? I don't think this is right: Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 26,730 games 0.005 secs 5,346,000 games/sec Board: Ad 8c 2s equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 01.6162 % 01.62% 00.00% { AKo } Hand 2: 98.3838 % 98.38% 00.00% { 88 } [/ QUOTE ] MrWookie's Post Plus, how about this one? 1,253,301,166 games 2842.687 secs 440,886 games/sec Board: 5d Jh Kc Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 65.4128 % 65.41% 00.00% { 5c5h } Hand 2: 13.8127 % 13.31% 00.50% { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, AQo+ } Hand 3: 11.2535 % 10.76% 00.49% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo } Hand 4: 09.5210 % 09.07% 00.45% { 66+, A5s+, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo } --- [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] This means that you need implied odds of over 10:1 to make your call +ev. If you make your set on the flop, after calling one bet pf, you must net over 10 SBs for the hand to make your pf call +ev. When you have to call 2 bets pf, you now must net 20 SBs to make your call +ev. [/ QUOTE ] What? Explain your reasoning. [/ QUOTE ] What do you not understand? For a hand that is most likely going to win once in eleven times, for you to invest one bet you need to have a net return of more than ten bets to have a positive expected value.
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#17
10-26-2006, 02:43 PM
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Re: Coldcalling 55
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] This means that you need implied odds of over 10:1 to make your call +ev. If you make your set on the flop, after calling one bet pf, you must net over 10 SBs for the hand to make your pf call +ev. When you have to call 2 bets pf, you now must net 20 SBs to make your call +ev. [/ QUOTE ] What? Explain your reasoning. [/ QUOTE ] What do you not understand? For a hand that is most likely going to win once in eleven times, for you to invest one bet you need to have a net return of more than ten bets to have a positive expected value. [/ QUOTE ] If you assume that you must net over 10 SBs when you hit to make calling one bet preflop +EV, it does not follow that you somehow double the amount you need to net because you are investing two bets preflop. You invest another bet, so to earn money you must earn exactly one more bet. So if you figure 10 SBs for a 1 bet investment than it's 11 SBs for a 2-bet investment, not 20.
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#19
10-26-2006, 02:55 PM
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Re: Coldcalling 55
With the exception of your preflop coldcall, I think you played this hand perfectly. Based on his continual betting, he had a big pair. Of course there are some morons who raise UTG w/ 44, but that is RARE. So probably QQ, since I don't think he would've felt so invincible w/ something lower all the way through the hand, considering you were betting/raising all the way.
DrModern: That math isn't correct. If you have to make 10 SB to be +EV, that means for every time you invest one bet, you have to make 10. So if every time, I invest 2 bets, I have to make 20 to be +EV. The only way I can say that 11 bets is +EV for 2 bets is if I only make that play ONE TIME. If I invest 2 bets EVERY TIME w/ 55 to see a flop, I WILL have to make 20 bets every time I win. These are ODDS, which DIVIDE the pot by number of bets; they are not subtracted.
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#20
10-26-2006, 02:56 PM
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Re: Coldcalling 55
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] You should not be cold-calling here because you have no reasonable expectation that you will get more callers behind you. [/ QUOTE ] What if the blinds come along? There's a non-trivial chance of other players coming along, too. [/ QUOTE ] I don't believe that you should make a decision here by hoping the blinds come along. You need some reason to believe that they will. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not saying, "Cross your fingers and blindly hope for them to call." I'm say, "To be fully accurate, you have include the non-zero non-trivial percentage chance that the blinds or the other players will call in your estimation of your pot odds." [ QUOTE ] Plus, how about this one? 1,253,301,166 games 2842.687 secs 440,886 games/sec Board: 5d Jh Kc Dead: equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 65.4128 % 65.41% 00.00% { 5c5h } Hand 2: 13.8127 % 13.31% 00.50% { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, AQo+ } Hand 3: 11.2535 % 10.76% 00.49% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo } Hand 4: 09.5210 % 09.07% 00.45% { 66+, A5s+, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo } [/ QUOTE ] Your ranges for the cold-callers are too narrow, IMO.
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