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#11
10-25-2006, 01:04 PM
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Re: 2/4: I\'ve got middle pair against a LAG and a fish
Given your play, call the river. CO easily has air. And you often have Button beat. Button calls here with Ace high quite often or with a pair of 6's or 3's.
I would have check raised that flop, and taken it from there. Betting the flop is also good. But with CO being a LAG, I probably would have gone for the check raise. Your hand is best quite often, and you want to fold out UTG+1 who is now getting 7.5 to 1 to call, and make Button and CO pay some more bets to see the turn. Waiting and raising a safe turn card isn't that great of an option here, because well, there aren't that many safe turn cards. 
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#12
10-25-2006, 02:31 PM
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Re: 2/4: I\'ve got middle pair against a LAG and a fish
Why would you want to checkraise this flop? You'd be giving anyone with two higher cards correct odds to call and they'd be correct to call a bet from you on the turn also.
And why do you want to put yourself in check/call mode? In what way is that superior to betting out?
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#13
10-25-2006, 04:26 PM
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Re: 2/4: I\'ve got middle pair against a LAG and a fish
[ QUOTE ]
Why would you want to checkraise this flop? You'd be giving anyone with two higher cards correct odds to call and they'd be correct to call a bet from you on the turn also. [/ QUOTE ] How is 3.5-1 correct odds to call with overcards, especially since one of them may be a Jack? Personally, I lead on this flop because I'm doubt button will bet, but if you're sure that the CO will definitely bet then go for the c/r.
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#14
10-25-2006, 04:37 PM
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Re: 2/4: I\'ve got middle pair against a LAG and a fish
[ QUOTE ]
How is 3.5-1 correct odds to call with overcards, especially since one of them may be a Jack? Personally, I lead on this flop because I'm doubt button will bet, but if you're sure that the CO will definitely bet then go for the c/r. [/ QUOTE ] Even if Button stays in? What do you estimate my equity on this flop is if it's 3-way (Me, CO, Button) and if it's HU (Me and CO)? I think I'm probably sitting around 25-30% 3-way and 60% HU hence why I'd raise if Button folded but just called when Button called. I estimate that Button has about 6 outs on me, and he could very well be ahead too because he's probably not going to raise with a better hand.
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#15
10-25-2006, 04:46 PM
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Re: 2/4: I\'ve got middle pair against a LAG and a fish
Okay, I now understand TomBrooks' thought now. Button would have odds to call both the flop and turn if you c/r CO. So for that reason, donking is best.
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#16
10-25-2006, 05:53 PM
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Re: 2/4: I\'ve got middle pair against a LAG and a fish
[ QUOTE ]
I estimate that Button has about 6 outs on me, and he could very well be ahead too because he's probably not going to raise with a better hand. [/ QUOTE ] Why wouldn't button raise with a better hand? He'd have a chance to knock out two players with a raise there as played. If CO is the type of LAG that might raise the flop a lot with weak pairs, weak draws or air, betting out and having him raise would help you to knock out two players.
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#17
10-25-2006, 07:35 PM
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Re: 2/4: I\'ve got middle pair against a LAG and a fish
[ QUOTE ]
Why wouldn't button raise with a better hand? He'd have a chance to knock out two players with a raise there as played. If CO is the type of LAG that might raise the flop a lot with weak pairs, weak draws or air, betting out and having him raise would help you to knock out two players. [/ QUOTE ] You're thinking far too much for Button. He hasn't shown a single act of aggression so far and seems like a full-ring fish (i.e. even more passive than typical loose-passive). Anyways, why would betting and letting CO raise knock out two players? That would only give an opportunity to knock out Button, and the opportunity of Button folding to 2 cold is less than the opportunity of UTG+1 (no read) folding to 2 cold.
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