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#12
10-24-2006, 06:35 PM
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Re: Overpair, is this a WA/WB situation?
*grunch*
All comments assume that villain is not the kind of imbecile who would limp deuce-five from any position other than the small blind. Preflop: -------- No comment necessary. Flop: ----- UTG+1 bet, but didn't reraise. The only likely hands that you could be behind to are three of a kind deuces, or the remote possibility of four of a kind fives. If he has either of these, his thinking would probably be as follows: Three of kind, Deuces: Hero raised from early position, which he is unlikely to do if he has a pair of deuces or any hand with a five. This means that villain can be pretty confident that his set is the best hand right now, which naturally should be bet, especially with the two-flush on the board. This being the case, the only thing for him to consider is whether or not he is likely to get beaten on the turn or river. The only hands that make sense for hero to raise preflop from early position are big pairs, big suited Aces and Kings, AKo, and in some cases AQo. The threats that these cards pose to villain are the possibility of a big pair hitting a set on turn or river, or a flush coming on the turn or river if hero is holding big suited clubs. Hero raised the flop out of position, which makes an overpair more likely than big suited clubs. Villain's best choice here is to call, see if the card that comes on the turn is in the range that is likely to help hero. Four of a kind fives: There is no reason for him to just call your raise on the flop. The chances of you getting a better four of a kind or a straight flush clubs by the river are really damn small. If he was going to slow play this kind of hand, he wouldn't have bet the flop. Villain having this is very unlikely. Pocket Pair 66-??:In this case he finds himself holding an overpair big enough to limp in EP, but not big enough to raise, which on a flop like this it makes sense to bet. Hero raises out of position, which makes it unlikely that he is trying for a free card. This means hero most likely also has an overpair, and since he raised preflop from EP, his overpair is most likely to be larger than villains. The villain is getting 13:1 to call to two outs, so should probably fold here. The fourth option, assuming that villain doesn't play crap from EP, is that he had some smaller suited broadway, or large offsuit Aces or Kings, and limped with them. This leave him with two overs. In this situation, he might bet them hoping the flop missed everyone, but should fold to the raise from hero. These being the three likely options plus one unlikely option, coupled with the fact that the villain called instead of folding lead me to believe that hero's AA might be beat. At this point in the hand I think the villains likely hole cards are either 22, 66, 77, 88, 99. Turn: ----- Villain bets out here, which would line up with him having three of a kind. With no read on villain, I would fold here, especially since 66 lines up well with the overpair scenario from the flop commentary. A lot of people will limp any pocket pair from EP, and the 6 on the turn is quite capable of making a set for someone who had 66 as an overpair to the flop. In addition, while villain should have folded 66 on the flop due to odds, a lot of people will take an overpair to the turn for one small bet, even if the odds don't line up. At this point I have villain on Three of a Kind, Deuces. River: ------ Here is where I think that you might have gotten lucky. Villain checking can normally mean one of two things in this scenario: 1) He called the flop raise with an overpair that wasn't 66, and bet the turn, hoping you were holding overcards and would fold. I've noticed that this happens a good bit. When you don't cave, checks the river, looking to either fold or call if you bet. 2) He has three of a kind, noticed that you won't give up the big pair no matter what, so hopes to induce a bluff on the river. 
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#13
10-24-2006, 11:07 PM
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Re: Overpair, is this a WA/WB situation?
[ QUOTE ]
*grunch* Three of kind, Deuces: Hero raised from early position, which he is unlikely to do if he has a pair of deuces or any hand with a five. [/ QUOTE ] Me being a nit - He would have a full house, not three of a kind, deuces.
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#14
10-24-2006, 11:08 PM
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Re: Overpair, is this a WA/WB situation?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] *grunch* Three of kind, Deuces: Hero raised from early position, which he is unlikely to do if he has a pair of deuces or any hand with a five. [/ QUOTE ] Me being a nit - He would have a full house, not three of a kind, deuces. [/ QUOTE ] This is not nitty. It's basic board-reading.
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#15
10-24-2006, 11:21 PM
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Re: Overpair, is this a WA/WB situation?
[ QUOTE ]
*grunch* All comments assume that villain is not the kind of imbecile who would limp deuce-five from any position other than the small blind. Preflop: -------- No comment necessary. Flop: ----- UTG+1 bet, but didn't reraise. The only likely hands that you could be behind to are three of a kind deuces, or the remote possibility of four of a kind fives. If he has either of these, his thinking would probably be as follows: Three of kind, Deuces: Hero raised from early position, which he is unlikely to do if he has a pair of deuces or any hand with a five. This means that villain can be pretty confident that his set is the best hand right now, which naturally should be bet, especially with the two-flush on the board. This being the case, the only thing for him to consider is whether or not he is likely to get beaten on the turn or river. The only hands that make sense for hero to raise preflop from early position are big pairs, big suited Aces and Kings, AKo, and in some cases AQo. The threats that these cards pose to villain are the possibility of a big pair hitting a set on turn or river, or a flush coming on the turn or river if hero is holding big suited clubs. Hero raised the flop out of position, which makes an overpair more likely than big suited clubs. Villain's best choice here is to call, see if the card that comes on the turn is in the range that is likely to help hero. Four of a kind fives: There is no reason for him to just call your raise on the flop. The chances of you getting a better four of a kind or a straight flush clubs by the river are really damn small. If he was going to slow play this kind of hand, he wouldn't have bet the flop. Villain having this is very unlikely. Pocket Pair 66-??:In this case he finds himself holding an overpair big enough to limp in EP, but not big enough to raise, which on a flop like this it makes sense to bet. Hero raises out of position, which makes it unlikely that he is trying for a free card. This means hero most likely also has an overpair, and since he raised preflop from EP, his overpair is most likely to be larger than villains. The villain is getting 13:1 to call to two outs, so should probably fold here. The fourth option, assuming that villain doesn't play crap from EP, is that he had some smaller suited broadway, or large offsuit Aces or Kings, and limped with them. This leave him with two overs. In this situation, he might bet them hoping the flop missed everyone, but should fold to the raise from hero. These being the three likely options plus one unlikely option, coupled with the fact that the villain called instead of folding lead me to believe that hero's AA might be beat. At this point in the hand I think the villains likely hole cards are either 22, 66, 77, 88, 99. Turn: ----- Villain bets out here, which would line up with him having three of a kind. With no read on villain, I would fold here, especially since 66 lines up well with the overpair scenario from the flop commentary. A lot of people will limp any pocket pair from EP, and the 6 on the turn is quite capable of making a set for someone who had 66 as an overpair to the flop. In addition, while villain should have folded 66 on the flop due to odds, a lot of people will take an overpair to the turn for one small bet, even if the odds don't line up. At this point I have villain on Three of a Kind, Deuces. River: ------ Here is where I think that you might have gotten lucky. Villain checking can normally mean one of two things in this scenario: 1) He called the flop raise with an overpair that wasn't 66, and bet the turn, hoping you were holding overcards and would fold. I've noticed that this happens a good bit. When you don't cave, checks the river, looking to either fold or call if you bet. 2) He has three of a kind, noticed that you won't give up the big pair no matter what, so hopes to induce a bluff on the river. [/ QUOTE ] Sean, While the detailed post style is good, there are a lot of mistakes in your thinking. It would take me a long time to go through all of it but basically: You are giving villain way way way way way too narrow a range and way way way way too much credit for being a thinking player throughout your analysis, especially on the turn.
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#16
10-24-2006, 11:24 PM
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Re: Overpair, is this a WA/WB situation?
[ QUOTE ]
I raise this turn, and call down if 3 bet. Value bet that river. [/ QUOTE ]
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#17
10-25-2006, 12:30 AM
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Re: Overpair, is this a WA/WB situation?
Sorry, I had about three things going on around me when I was posting, one of which involved a five year old. I really should have waited until I was able to concentrate more.
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#18
10-25-2006, 12:31 AM
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Re: Overpair, is this a WA/WB situation?
[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, I had about three things going on around me when I was posting, one of which involved a five year old. I really should have waited until I was able to concentrate more. [/ QUOTE ] Not a personal criticism at all. Life circumstances totally understandable. Don't worry about it.
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#19
10-25-2006, 12:39 AM
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Re: Overpair, is this a WA/WB situation?
[ QUOTE ]
While the detailed post style is good, there are a lot of mistakes in your thinking. It would take me a long time to go through all of it but basically: You are giving villain way way way way way too narrow a range and way way way way too much credit for being a thinking player throughout your analysis, especially on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] That's kind of why I'm making detailed posts. I probably have a lot of flaws in my thinking. I'm posting rather detailed bits in hopes that some people will start pointing them out. If anyone is willing to PM me with a scathing critique, it would be appreciated. NOTE: I used to teach guitar to teenagers who wanted to be Kirk Hammett in less than a month. I'm quite used to giving students some hard truth, especially the ones who really wanted to be good players but had gotten some wrong ideas about how to master a musical instrument. Due to that, I'm quite willing to take such critique myself.
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#20
10-25-2006, 12:42 AM
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Re: Overpair, is this a WA/WB situation?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] While the detailed post style is good, there are a lot of mistakes in your thinking. It would take me a long time to go through all of it but basically: You are giving villain way way way way way too narrow a range and way way way way too much credit for being a thinking player throughout your analysis, especially on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] That's kind of why I'm making detailed posts. I probably have a lot of flaws in my thinking. I'm posting rather detailed bits in hopes that some people will start pointing them out. If anyone is willing to PM me with a scathing critique, it would be appreciated. NOTE: I used to teach guitar to teenagers who wanted to be Kirk Hammett in less than a month. I'm quite used to giving students some hard truth, especially the ones who really wanted to be good players but had gotten some wrong ideas about how to master a musical instrument. Due to that, I'm quite willing to take such critique myself. [/ QUOTE ] If you seriously want this, PM me and I'll take apart your above post bit by bit.
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