NFL Week 7 Picks

[Shipwreck]

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There are NO LOCKS in the NFL. The line is never off by like six points.

I'm indifferent on the first two, lean the other way on Arizona-Oakland, and took the other side on Pittsburgh-Atlanta.

Your picks seem like the top four candidates for this week's BSP specials.

BSP=Bar Stool Pundit, which is essentially what the (non-expert) public believes about a game. They're the teams that random guys in bars will tell you are ABSOLUTE LOCKS!!!! Last year, going against the BSP picks was very profitable, starting something like 13-1. I believe natedogg is the creator of the term BSP. Search may tell you more.

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If I got on the forum and said I was 13-1 in the NFL all of the more experienced posters would tell me that's hardly big enough of a sample size to justify that I'm doing correct decisions. I'm not saying going against BSP is wrong becuase it's not, I'm just saying that just because a pick is a BSP does not mean it's wrong.

[paperchamp]

I don't think going against BSPs would have done you very well this season.

[CCx]

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Philadelphia -4 vs TB (Phi.)

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Good. If they dont destroy Tampon Bay like they should I'll crap on a plate and eat it.

[kdog]

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My locks for this week are:

San Diego -5 vs KC (SD)
Philadelphia -4 vs TB (Phi.)
Eagles won't lose to a mediocre team after losing to NO
Arizona -3 vs Oakland (Arizona)
Arizona looked good last week, much better than Oakland. Leinhart is coming along.
Pittsburgh -1.5 vs Atlanta (Pittsburgh)
Over/Under for the game is 37.5...I'm taking the under
Pittsburgh looked really sharp last week. I expect a low scoring game where they come out on top 13-10.

Well, that's all for now. Discuss.

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Hmmm, 4 road favorites. Historically NOT a proven recipe for success. Personally the only one there I like is the Eagles. For Ccx's sake, let's hope were both right on that one. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[JJguy]

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My locks for this week are:
Arizona -3 vs Oakland (Arizona)
Arizona looked good last week, much better than Oakland. Leinhart is coming along.


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I took AZ -3 as well. I think Leinart has performed very well. Despite their dissapointing loss to CHI, I think they're more pissed than demoralized. I don't know if this is "a lock" but I like it a lot.

[JJguy]

Speaking of BSPs lol..

GB in Miami? GB is a 5 point dog according to the lines, but every ESPN analyst has picked them to win? explain

[easternbloc]

miami has looked pretty bad all season, losing to houston and falling behind to the jets 20-3 last week before coming back late to push the spread. two of green bay's top recievers are at least less than 100% according to reports. green bay's defense is second-worst in the league in front of houston, so if there is any game where harrington can 'get healthy' this is probably it. miami on the other hand is ranked top-10 in the league (5th and 7th iirc) against the pass and the run, so their pass defense should be able to take advantage of the situation considering those recievers might be hurt. it's really probably going to be an ugly game overall, but if i had to put my money somewhere, I would say green bay. I just don't like the idea of joey harrington laying points to anyway.

[MacGuyV]

Many of the same experts hyped them to death all offseason. I would strongly consider taking Miami in my survivor pool if I hadn't used them already, but I think the 5pt line is about right.

[GiftGiver]

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My locks for this week are:
Arizona -3 vs Oakland (Arizona)
Arizona looked good last week, much better than Oakland. Leinhart is coming along.


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I took AZ -3 as well. I think Leinart has performed very well. Despite their dissapointing loss to CHI, I think they're more pissed than demoralized. I don't know if this is "a lock" but I like it a lot.

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"The Raiders are the NFL’s lone winless team, but teams that are winless at 0-5 or worse are actually good bets as underdogs or pick, going 90-50-4 ATS with wins last week on Tennessee and Detroit. I’d take the Raiders since they are a better team than the Cardinals. Oakland is a bad offensive team, rating at 0.7 yards per play worse than average in 4 games with Andrew Walter at quarterback (4.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team), but Arizona is 0.7 yppl worse than average offensively in Matt Leinart’s 2 starts (4.1 yppl against teams that would allow 4.8 yppl) and the Cardinals are 0.6 yppl worse than average offensively for the season (4.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average attack). So, the offensive units are actually about even and the Raiders have a huge edge defensively in this game. Oakland has yielded just 4.8 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average team and they should have no trouble limiting the Cardinals in this game. Arizona’s defense played well last week, but they have allowed 5.6 yppl in 6 games to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team, so the Raiders should show signs of life offensively. The Raiders seem worse than they actually are because they’re -9 in turnover margin in their 5 games, but they’re not likely to be as bad in that category going forward – which gives us line value on their side. I can’t imagine how the Cardinals will be able to pick themselves up emotionally after blowing a 20 point lead to the Bears on Monday night."

The above is not my analysis but I defy anyone to post anything more prescient regarding the Raiders/Cardinals game. This is the difference between being a sharp and a BSP. Give a real reason to bet on the Cardinals other than "Lienart looked good"

[GiftGiver]

P.S. - I am a BSP