10/180 AA on Dangerous Flop

[alanbrown]

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Looking for perfect situations for a call is a good way to go busto.

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agreed entirely. I have a leak in my game here which I must confess. The fact that my analysis leads you to seeing it is telling.

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I would venture to say that both would call given the action w/ 77 or 99

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Maybe, but only for set value, and I believe we're bumping up against stack sizes here so are probably not getting set value for the pre flop call.

The reason I was suspicious of the made flush is in part because the nature of the flop prevents many of the suited connectors.

Also, I would Love to be facing AsKd here of course. Or KsJc (very long shot).

I agree there are lots of ways this hand could be beaten.

However, I still suspect that with the pot odds and the many ways this hand *might* work out for us, that this isn't a bad call.

Not that I think it's a bad fold. Just that I thought a dissenting voice was in order.

In this situation I'd be thinking there's a good chance they're fighting for the same bit of the pot (ie. they've both got a single high spade) so I'd probably lean (reluctantly) toward the call.

And when it's close I tend to call 'cos it's sends a Don't Push Into Me Without The Nuts message that has it's own value.

I think I'd fold if the stacks were bigger.

[0evg0]

i probably call.

expect sb to have QQ/KK/AA the majority of the time.

BB has JJ/AsKx/AxKs like all day too.

this is a gigantic pot, and getting a gigantic stack in these is pretty money.

also, reraise more preflop

[FortunaMaximus]

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However, I still suspect that with the pot odds and the many ways this hand *might* work out for us, that this isn't a bad call.

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Uh?

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And when it's close I tend to call 'cos it's sends a Don't Push Into Me Without The Nuts message that has it's own value.

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More along the lines of "He Won't Let Go Of AA!"

You realize this is AhAc, not AhAs?

OP, chiding me about position awhile ago...

Use position here and be glad you have t1270 behind to continue at 10/20 and 20/40.

[mornelth]

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i probably call.

expect sb to have QQ/KK/AA the majority of the time.

BB has JJ/AsKx/AxKs like all day too.

this is a gigantic pot, and getting a gigantic stack in these is pretty money.

also, reraise more preflop

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Hero's not looking too hot with your ranges...

Board: 7s 9s Js
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 18.7698 % 18.04% 00.73% { AdAs, KK-QQ }
Hand 2: 22.8090 % 22.08% 00.73% { AcAh }
Hand 3: 58.4212 % 57.69% 00.73% { JJ, AdKs, AsKd }

[0evg0]

those aren't the only hands in their ranges. it's a 10/180.

i'm just saying those are the hands of note.

what kind of equity do we need to call here though?

i'm guessing like 27% would be more than enough.

[AceLuby]

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[ QUOTE ]
i probably call.

expect sb to have QQ/KK/AA the majority of the time.

BB has JJ/AsKx/AxKs like all day too.

this is a gigantic pot, and getting a gigantic stack in these is pretty money.

also, reraise more preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero's not looking too hot with your ranges...

Board: 7s 9s Js
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 18.7698 % 18.04% 00.73% { AdAs, KK-QQ }
Hand 2: 22.8090 % 22.08% 00.73% { AcAh }
Hand 3: 58.4212 % 57.69% 00.73% { JJ, AdKs, AsKd }

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Yeah, if you add AsKs in that range for either and we're really screwed.

[Jeff76]

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also, reraise more preflop

[/ QUOTE ]To how much? I honestly figured we were going to get it all in PF when I put the third raise in, so I figured a little more than 4x his re-raise was enough. Obviously I wanted to isolate the SB, but it's hard to do because once the SB calls the BB is going to get priced in more easily.

[0evg0]

you raised even less than 4x.

he reraised to 140, bb called, i reraise to like 600-700

[radiihead]

you have to be insane to call this, even with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] most of the time you're gonna have to hit to win this pot. Fold.

[0evg0]

you guys are dumb if you dont realize how little equity we need to make this +ev.

we have 1/3 of our stack in there already.