Senate races at Bodog - Page 2

Ortho · #11 10-17-2006, 04:38 AM

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He's running as an independent because he lost the primary thanks to the far left democrats. The Rupublican candidate is a joke so he should get a lot of Republican and independant votes.

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This makes sense. 2/5 Lieberman looks like a gift, no? The Republican can't win, Lieberman is well ahead of the Democrat, potential Repub/Ind support, and the fact that Dem voters might have bigger bark than bite once they get into the booth on election day.

TheRover · #12 10-17-2006, 04:48 AM

It is probably a good bet, but I wouldn't go crazy about it. Lamont will get all the far left support and plenty of token "hey, look a D next to his name" support. Lieberman certainly has the advantage, but it isn't a given. imo...

I wish I could get some more money in there asap.

charlie, unless you can create another account you can't.

Ortho · #13 10-17-2006, 04:53 AM

I agree, but if super-incumbents like Hatch are 1/9 or better, it seems like Lieberman should at least be in the 1/4-1/5 range, rather than the 1/2.5 he's at.

Anyway, at $125 to win 50 I can't imagine he's not +EV.

CharlieDontSurf · #14 10-17-2006, 04:56 AM

I bet max on hawaii dude, casey, leiberman(he'll win/his opponenet is far far lefty), and trent lott

the hawaii dude is great if u need to clear a bonus

silentbob · #15 10-17-2006, 10:50 AM

The four races that I think are more or less "October Surprise"-proof but still offer decent odds are Thomas (WY), Carper (DE), Klobuchar (MN), and Lott (MS). It really is free money.

fnurt · #16 10-17-2006, 11:37 AM

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I agree, but if super-incumbents like Hatch are 1/9 or better, it seems like Lieberman should at least be in the 1/4-1/5 range, rather than the 1/2.5 he's at.

Anyway, at $125 to win 50 I can't imagine he's not +EV.

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There's too many X-factors in CT, I'd stick with the numerous races that are free money.

I don't want to get into a political argument, but these people saying the Dem nominee is "far far left" are just way off. He's a credible guy, and the real problem is that the Republican is almost certain to get much more than the 4-5% he's polling at, which takes away votes from Lieberman. Many people think the debate yesterday was actually won by the Republican, who had previously been considered irrelevant.

There's just too much potential for stuff to happen here to rank it among the other +EV opportunities.

NajdorfDefense · #17 10-17-2006, 02:30 PM

Steele could surprise, Casey has a 9-pt lead but 'lost' the debate last night to Santorum, just looked like a rank amateur {I hate both candidates equally}. I would in no way lay 4-1 on Casey, that lead could be gone by Friday.

CharlieDontSurf · #18 10-17-2006, 03:13 PM

Leiberman could def lose to the Dem...its a bit more of a gamble there but I have a lot of faith that Joe will beat him by 3-4 %.

Casey is far more likely to win in his state give people have such a strong negative view of RS. The RNC has basically given up on him and considers him dead.

Debates don't mean much for incumbents. The odds that RS can overcome a 10-15 point lead in 2 to 3 weeks barring a huge october surprise is pretty low.

There is no way his lead would be gone by Friday unless Casey comes out an announces he's gay...

claudenm · #19 10-17-2006, 03:32 PM

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I bet max on hawaii dude, casey, leiberman(he'll win/his opponenet is far far lefty), and trent lott

the hawaii dude is great if u need to clear a bonus

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You probably shouldn't have bet on politics since you have no idea what you are talking about. Lamont isn't "far far lefty" and Lieberman got destroyed by the Republican candidate in the debate yesterday. A lot of voters learned alot about Schlesinger (R) and are going to pull the lever for him instead of Lieberman.

CharlieDontSurf · #20 10-17-2006, 03:39 PM

Lol...guess my college education was a waste then

JL isn't a lock obviously but I see him pulling it out in the end given he will get many moderate Rep and indep votes that Lamont won't get.
People put way to much stock in debates.

Lamont is far left compared to Leiberman in terms of being a democrat-he's also the anti war canidate, which is always a negative...wasnt implying Lamont is a socialist.

To describe Lamont as a moderate Dem would be silly.
Of course Joe is also a conservative democrat