[LONG!] A year has passed: Time for status (old Irieguy post)

[pineapple888]

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- The selection bias point is a good one, but his estimate of the number of players who are winning is RIDICULOUSLY low.

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Note that the percentages he gave were of *all* players, not just 2+2ers. I'd be very surprised if more than 5% of *all* players are significantly beating the rake over time, although there are probably a bunch hovering around break-even.

[Irieguy]

I think that my post from a year ago was more accurate in terms of what was actually going on than almost any other discussion at the time.

Still, I don't think the numbers were that far off. The best $215ers and higher are still earning single-digit ROIs with few exceptions.

The problem most people have with my assertions is that they know of people who are doing and have done better. So do I. I also know of people who have gone broke or underacheived. I know of even more who have blown massive bankrolls.

Some of the posters participating in that discussion are still around, and some aren't. More people are getting "rich" from poker now than I thought would be possible last year, and that makes me happy.

BOTTOM LINE UPDATE:
1. I think that a higher percentage of players are long term winners than I thought last year.

2. I think that a great player may be able to do a little better than I suggested, but not much. (Remember that the whole discussion was about great players, not the 10 best in the world or anything.)

3. I think that for the most part people overestimate their earning ability when they contemplate a career as a SNG pro.

So many changes have occured lately that it is very difficult to make one-to-one ROI comparisons from this year to last year.

Also, there is just a ton more money to be made playing different games. The edge is much thinner in SNGs than in other forms of poker.

I haven't played a SNG since the WSOP.

Irieguy

[Irieguy]

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DISCLAIMER: The discussion about WHAT irieguy says, can be found in the archive (link below), so its not a new discussion we wan't, but solely a empiric hindsight to whether he had a point or not.

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By the way, what you are asking for is not possible and speaks to the selection bias I mentioned in my original post. The people who legitimize the points in my post are the losers and the players on heaters who have cooled. Those people don't post here very often, but they are legion.

For the most part, this is a forum for winners and heaters. Halelujah.

Irieguy

[microbet]

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DISCLAIMER: The discussion about WHAT irieguy says, can be found in the archive (link below), so its not a new discussion we wan't, but solely a empiric hindsight to whether he had a point or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

By the way, what you are asking for is not possible and speaks to the selection bias I mentioned in my original post. The people who legitimize the points in my post are the losers and the players on heaters who have cooled. Those people don't post here very often, but they are legion.

For the most part, this is a forum for winners and heaters. Halelujah.

Irieguy

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You know there are only like 25 people posting here. I have 40 or so accounts, Yugo has about 100, and SFB has most of the rest of them.

cue forumbot

[Misfire]

Woohoo, I'm still here.

[good2cu]

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Irie,

I think you forgot to mention
By the way, what you are asking for is not possible and speaks to the selection bias I mentioned in my original post. The people who legitimize the points in my post are the losers and the players on heaters who have cooled. Those people don't post here very often, but they are legion.

For the most part, this is a forum for winners and heaters. Halelujah.

Irieguy

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Irie,

I think you forgot the ten best sng players in the world.

[Apathy]

I think Good2cu dismantled all of your points one by one...

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I can't spell, my grammer is no good, and i get defensive when your replies insult me. Can I still be a poker god?

No.

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Esp this one [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]


I think I said in that thread I'd stil be around and I am, so are basically all of the people, Raptor, Deuce, Bonafone etc etc that you were referring to.

[good2cu]

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I can spell, my grammer is good, and i always take other people's advice to hear. Can I still be a poker god?

No.
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FYP Craig [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].