Daliman's NFL wong teasers: Week 6 - Page 2

dawade · #11 10-12-2006, 02:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
YTD:
Teased Games: 19-2 (90.48%)
2 team teases: 28-5 (84.85%)
3 Team Teases: 1-0 (100%)
4 Team teases: 6-1 (85.71%)
+4149

Well gang, as it stands, there is only one teasble game, Miami/Jets, so unless something changes, no teasers this week. None of the straddle games look good to me, so I'm not using those as it stands. Just figured I should put the thread up at least since I have been every week. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Figures the one week I want to start doing these I can't.

Matthader · #12 10-12-2006, 08:51 AM

I don't have the book, but is Wong saying that the stats say the true line needs to be a closer matchup (ie +2,+2.5)rather than a 3 point game, for the strategy to prevail? (with the better EV)

sfwusc · #13 10-12-2006, 09:13 AM

Basicly you need to wong the true line. The true line is usually very close to pinny kickoff line.

Ok if the true line is +2.5, but currently +3 then you are better to wong the game now. It is still wongable bc the true line is +2.5, and even more EV+ bc the line is actually wrong by 0.5 pts.

Also remember that as the line moves off -110 it changes the EV as well b/c the teaser removes that part of the payout. Ex +2.5 -125 is closer to +3 than +2.5 -110. You have to consider that as well.

-SFWUSC

Performify · #14 10-12-2006, 09:52 AM

Too bad you guys couldn't grab Chicago when I posted Sunday afternoon on it, it was -9.5 early, that was a sexy teaser for the week [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

As to Wong'ing the kickoff line if it moves against you, I am in favor personally: i agree with what sfwusc/etc are saying: the profit comes from adjusting the true line beyond the two key numbers, and even if a line moves from -9.5 to -8.5 I agree that the teaser then has that value that its worth placing despite the line moving against you.

Daliman · #15 10-12-2006, 11:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Too bad you guys couldn't grab Chicago when I posted Sunday afternoon on it, it was -9.5 early, that was a sexy teaser for the week [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

As to Wong'ing the kickoff line if it moves against you, I am in favor personally: i agree with what sfwusc/etc are saying: the profit comes from adjusting the true line beyond the two key numbers, and even if a line moves from -9.5 to -8.5 I agree that the teaser then has that value that its worth placing despite the line moving against you.

[/ QUOTE ]

-9.5 to -8.5 is the line moving FOR you, no? +3 to +2.5 is moving against.

Thremp · #16 10-12-2006, 11:48 AM

Dali,

You are right. But the value comes from crossing those numbers and from getting even pricing. Lines sharpen over the week and right before kickoff would be the ideal time to place teaser bets. I'd say anything after Fri/Sat. night would be more or less fine if you can't Sunday morning.

Performify · #17 10-12-2006, 11:49 AM

Yeah it depends on your perspective on the move. Normally you're right a move from +3 to +2.5 would be against us if we were betting the underdog.

But on a teaser I'd look at it as a line moving from -9.5 to -8.5 would be a move against my teaser, in that money (most likely sharp money) is coming in on the other side and moving the line. If the line is already heading the direction i'm going to be teasing I'd say that's a move against, in relation to a teaser.

Daliman · #18 10-12-2006, 02:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Dali,

You are right. But the value comes from crossing those numbers and from getting even pricing. Lines sharpen over the week and right before kickoff would be the ideal time to place teaser bets. I'd say anything after Fri/Sat. night would be more or less fine if you can't Sunday morning.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough, maybe I'll start posting them on fridays or so then.

greg44 · #19 10-12-2006, 02:39 PM

The difference between 8 1/2 and 9 is virtually nothing. I'd wait for the 2.5 since those teasers are more profitable in the long run.

I like the 10 teamer in:

Chicago
San Diego
Washington

silentbob · #20 10-14-2006, 01:16 AM

The Chargers/49ers line has dipped back to -9.5, which makes a 7-point teaser quite appealing now. Thing is, I can't seem to find a good pairing. Neither the Lions +1 nor the Dolphins +2 are particularly appealing. Should I take one of the +3 teams even though some of the Wong value is lost? The ones that I'd consider most are the Panthers and Rams.

I should probably be patient but part of me thinks the Chargers will be -10 when I wake up tomorrow.