Tips for the new sports bettor

[Ortho]

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Great info, especially on using arbs to clear bonuses.

The thing is, it seems like you need to be able to move money between sportsbooks pretty easily in order to arb successfully because you never know which side is actually going to hit. Now that Firepay is effective going kaput on Friday, how can I arb without eventually busting out at any given site? I live in MD so Neteller is not an option.

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Never say never, but I honestly believe that it is not possible to arb a significant amount without access to neteller.

[XXXNoahXXX]

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Most people deposit $200 and wager $25 or $50 a game and go robusto in a couple weeks.

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Just so you BBVers don't get confused, he means BUSTO. Betting 1/4 of your bankroll on one game is not a good thing and will make you busto, not robusto.


One of my main problems when I started, which was only a few weeks ago, was that I am used to larger gains in poker, so it was hard to accept the fact that over the course of an entire week I was putting up like 1/2 of a buy-in, and a "great week" meant winning like $50-75 whereas a great hand in poker would get me $500.

Poker skill does not equal sportsbetting skill. You need to learn to crawl before you can walk.

But what about the sense of gambooool?


Largely, if you have this great sense of gambol and nervous energy when placing a bet, you are placing too large of a bet or at least a -EV one.

My solution has been to lay out my usual bets, I typically bet 3-4 NFL games and maybe a college game if I see a good edge, but then have one gambooool bet.

Throw a $5 8-team Parlay out there. Go ahead. Of course, its -EV. But being able to root for the big score will settle your urge to throw around more money than you should be on your normal bets.


Obviously I'm a newb and am still working my way through the initially recommended books, links, and e-books, but thats just my two cents.

[rjp]

A few tips I have:

Only buy points when you're getting a better price. A majority of the time you will not get a better price, so if you have no idea how to determine if you're getting a better price then don't buy (or sell) points.

Use a money management plan that fits in with your betting goals. I do a better job covering this in the eBook, but everyone has different goals, and just because some of us are in it for the long term doesn't mean your goals line up with ours. If your goal is to last many betting seasons without replenishing your bankroll then you should wager only 1-2% on each bet. If you just want to attempt to last an entire NFL betting season with no real intention of winning money over the long term then 4-5% will give you the gamble you desire with a decent chance at having a litle money in the end. Keep in mind that 4-5% gives you a good chance at going broke over the long term, so only use this if you can replinish if you go broke, or you don't care about going broke.

Trends are your worst enemy, and they're the sportsbook's best friend. Don't risk money based on trends with a small sample size. You'll often see gamblers quote meaningless trends that have no bearing on the specific game in question. With so many games and teams you are likely to find many of these trends. Because they're likely to happen due to natural chance you're best bet is to ignore them completely. Wong's book does a good job of covering this concept.

Understand why most NFL team's that win outright cover the point spread. You'll often hear gamblers quote something (depending on their math) 70%-90% of the teams that win outright cover the point spread. Is this earth shattering? No. Most point spreads are within 1 to 8 points, and given that the team has won they are likely to have covered the point spread. The problem? No team wins 100% of the time. These gamblers feel line shopping and buying early is useless. Don't fall into their trap.

[silentbob]

Is there a particular handicapping program/software of choice, like a sports betting version of Poker Tracker/PAHUD?

[Jibba]

Thank you. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[playersare]

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Taking a freebie shot on an event is always positive. IE manage to find -5.5 -105/+6 105 at two diff books. You run an EV of whatever the probablity of the occurence times your bet amount. High variance, but its makes your day to watch a 2k-3k side come in.

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your middle example is not a "freebie shot" nor "always positive". you're spending juice on both sides and only one side can win outright. I can't think of any sport where a game would land exactly on 6 often enough to offset the 5% vig (NFL is the closest at 4% but that still makes it statistically -EV). if you're talking about hitting 2-3K sides then that's $100-150 in commission at risk - you'll need a lot of dinky penny scalps to make up for that loss.

middles are definitely +EV when executed properly, but rarely will you find anything playable right off the rack like you would a small arb. you almost always have to take a lead and follow steam across a key number.

[Thremp]

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Taking a freebie shot on an event is always positive. IE manage to find -5.5 -105/+6 105 at two diff books. You run an EV of whatever the probablity of the occurence times your bet amount. High variance, but its makes your day to watch a 2k-3k side come in.

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your middle example is not a "freebie shot" nor "always positive". you're spending juice on both sides and only one side can win outright. I can't think of any sport where a game would land exactly on 6 often enough to offset the 5% vig (NFL is the closest at 4% but that still makes it statistically -EV). if you're talking about hitting 2-3K sides then that's $100-150 in commission at risk - you'll need a lot of dinky penny scalps to make up for that loss.

middles are definitely +EV when executed properly, but rarely will you find anything playable right off the rack like you would a small arb. you almost always have to take a lead and follow steam across a key number.

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Sorry. I left out a + to make it more clear. A better example would be NCAA football and basketball totals where you can get a side/middle/double side across numbers frequently paying no juice.

You are right about standard lines for most sports (ML, RL, spread etc.) not being able to find a middle. But as with all arbing... steam kinda makes things happen.

[Ortho]

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Taking a freebie shot on an event is always positive. IE manage to find -5.5 -105/+6 105 at two diff books. You run an EV of whatever the probablity of the occurence times your bet amount. High variance, but its makes your day to watch a 2k-3k side come in.

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your middle example is not a "freebie shot" nor "always positive".

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Why not? He's -105 on one side and +105 on the other. He breaks even unless the 6 hits. What's his downside?

[Thremp]

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Taking a freebie shot on an event is always positive. IE manage to find -5.5 -105/+6 105 at two diff books. You run an EV of whatever the probablity of the occurence times your bet amount. High variance, but its makes your day to watch a 2k-3k side come in.

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your middle example is not a "freebie shot" nor "always positive".

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Why not? He's -105 on one side and +105 on the other. He breaks even unless the 6 hits. What's his downside?

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I was unclear. He thinks I meant -105/-105 instead of -105/+105.

[Runner Runner]

Betting sports is like investing in stocks. The market is usually much more efficient in more popular sports.

Therefore, there is a lot of value in handicapping weird things like movies, singing competitions or hot dog eating contests.

Also, small dogs get the money in most sports. In tennis, big faves get nice slow money. Betting the "NO" in most props is the right side (No 4th down conversion, no overtime, etc...) If you can get 1 point better then the closing number, you will win in the long run. Don't chase steam. Fade square line moves. The long run is really long in sportsbetting. Always be either clearing a bonus or getting reduced vig (preferably both).