Flopped set, interesting Turn action. Please comment on all streets.

[Xhad]

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These results are going to shock the living crud out of everyone who responded:

Both players had A2 for a straight. MP3 and BB split the pot.

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You'll notice I did account for that possibility, but that it was just a small part of Villain's range.

Essentially, my argument goes like this:

-If he's a decent player, he has 33 or QT. Nothing else makes sense.
-If he's a typical bad player, he has 45s, 34s, 67s, A2, 33, QT, maybe 44
-If he's a really bad player, he has any straight, any two pair, any set, maybe even less if he's a LAG.

You're ahead way more often than not against all of the above ranges.

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I was on the same line as everyone else, thinking two pair was the most likely holding (54s is what I put MP3 on). But there are a lot of players who will peel one off for a gut shot, and that was in the back of my mind the whole time. Also BB cold calling everything was highly weird IMO, which also made me start to think someone MIGHT have a straight.

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I don't care what BB has because he's playing badly; there's no hand that makes sense to play this way because bad hands should be leaving, there are no reasonable draws and good hands should realize that obviously you like YOUR hand so let's do some value betting. When a fish is calling along you should think "dead money" and concentrate on what the other players have.

If BB had check/3bet at any point then you could probably shut down.

[basco]

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I don't care what BB has because he's playing badly; there's no hand that makes sense to play this way because bad hands should be leaving

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Give BB credit, I think playing A2s (as long as they're not diamonds) in this manner isn't bad. He gets a free look at the flop, has an inside straight draw, an overcard, and a backdoor flush for like, 8 outs, and getting 7-1 from the pot he calls. Hits his hand on the turn, but still faces heavy action... when the action is to him, he would fear that a re-re-raise would push hero out of the hand, and that it would give MP3 a chance to cap it with the better hand. On the river he goes for the overcall from hero.

If they weren't suited, then my argument falls apart, and he certainly APPEARS to be a complete calling station, but I think his play is alright.

[Xhad]

I wasn't talking about BB's flop play; you're right that calling A2s with a BDFD isn't too bad (though pretty much all of his outs except the flush are tainted, so I wouldn't say 8 outs...but he only needs around 6-7 to make the call closing the action)

There is no reason to cold-call the turn. With a weak hand, he's beat and there's no hand that should see a river getting 3.5-to-1 not closing the action. With a strong hand: Obviously two people really like their hands and the pot is shorthanded. There's only one more round of betting and the bets have already doubled. Even if he somehow talks himself into slowplaying the turn, what is he waiting for on the river? Does he think hero is going to bet at every opportunity on the flop and turn and then suddenly fold to a river 3bet? Or is he planning to wake up if the sixth card is a blank?