Oh lord, Another AA hand. Don't kick me out of the Micros. - Page 2

Sean Fraley · #11 10-09-2006, 08:23 PM

*grunch*

Preflop: OK

Flop: I actually would have reraised him here. This is a board where someone with less than top pair or a couple of unimproved overs will raise narrow the field, or possibly steal the pot. In the event that BB has the flush, you're already beat, and BB will most likely cap the flop betting. If he does this and you decide to go to showdown, then calling the cap costs you 2 small bets more than what you would pay by calling down from here on out. On the other hand if he doesn't have the flush, you need to play your AA like you would any top pair on the flop. This first of all means protecting your hand, and your reraise will probably be enough for MP3 to fold. In addition, if BB is agressively playing something like a pair of nines, hoping that the 3 to a flush on board adds some weight to his raise, your reraise puts some good pressure back on him. He will most likely call, and then check-call to showdown, if he goes to showdown at all. In this case the reraise would cost you two small bets, the same cost as the one big bet it would cost to raise instead of call on the turn, but doesn't expose you to a reraise that you have to call for another big bet.

Turn: Since you didn't reraise on the flop, just call down here. It could get expensive to get reraised if you raise.

River. Call

Hellmouth · #12 10-09-2006, 08:26 PM

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There is a (37/47)*(36/46)=62% chance that neither the turn nor the river is a heart. Do you think we have pretty good pot equity?

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If there were no chance of a straight, which there is, and if there were no chance that villian already has a flush (which he might) then i would say that is correct. If villian has a flush or nasty low set. I think then we are drawing to two outs. (for a full house)

So does this work then? lets assign x=10% that we are behind after the flop because villian likes his hand and raised the flop.

[1-x(37/47 * 36/46)]-[x(45/47 * 44/46)]=
[.9(37/47 * 36/46)]-[.1(45/47 * 44/46)]=
[.9*.62 - .1*.91]= 55.8%-9.1%
= 46.7%

So even if villian has a 10% chance of having a good hand seems to drastically change our pot equity.

I don't know if 10% is correct and I am not quite sure about the calculation. (For example I sort of fudged the fact that we know the turn is going to pair the board so that an A will give us a Full house to beat the flush)

With a 46% equity and all the bets before and on the flop do we still have enough equity?

Greg

bravos1 · #13 10-09-2006, 08:27 PM

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This might be one of those times where you wait for a safe turn to raise. If it is, then I might c/c the flop, raise the turn.

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I hope you mean b/c and not c/c this flop right???

IMO, the turn is a pretty safe card. If the 4 helped him, then he already had you beat or crushed on the flop.

Hellmouth · #14 10-09-2006, 08:33 PM

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This might be one of those times where you wait for a safe turn to raise. If it is, then I might c/c the flop, raise the turn.

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I hope you mean b/c and not c/c this flop right???

IMO, the turn is a pretty safe card. If the 4 helped him, then he already had you beat or crushed on the flop.

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At the time I was not seriouslly concerned about the 4 because I have a hard time believing that villian would raise me with A4 on the flop. The only hand that would make sense is some junk like hand like two pair where he hit 2pr on the flop and wanted to drive out flush drawers. Two pair is possible because he is in the BB. As long as the 4 is not one of his pairs it acutally helps me.

Greg

threads13 · #15 10-09-2006, 08:38 PM

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I would definitely not reraise this flop. If a heart comes on the turn, our hand is useless.

I would raise the turn.

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This most likely knocks out the player behind us who has not bet yet. Do we want him/his money in the pot? Are we sure that we are ahead here roughly 50% of the time still?

Does raising the turn give us the opportunity to take a free showdown if the river is a heart? (I suspect not if villian has a high heart draw)

Greg

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As far as the turn raise goes. We are not wanting the other player in since this is a large pot, the raise is to protect our hand, not so much for value. Having said that, I think you can take a free SD if the river is a scare card, but I think there could also be value in a river bet.

Xhad · #16 10-09-2006, 08:41 PM

If you're going to raise this postflop anywhere, raise the turn and fold to a 3bet. If you can't fold to a reraise, raising this anywhere postflop is spewing.

I wanted to say OP's line was easily best but given the 3rd player I might raise the turn to get extra value out of a lone heart (MP3 certainly looks like he's on a draw). HU I just go into WA/WB mode immediately.

Buzz-cp · #17 10-09-2006, 08:51 PM

I don't see how this is a 'wait for a safe turn card' Our equity will probably only substantially change if a heart falls. Only MP3 is left after BB has raised, and he probably has a heart. We need to put another value bet in on this flop.

Buzz

Xhad · #18 10-09-2006, 09:02 PM

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Our equity will probably only substantially change if a heart falls

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our equity goes up quite a bit when a heart doesn't fall.

VickreyAuction · #19 10-09-2006, 09:17 PM

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I don't see how this is a 'wait for a safe turn card'

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If the turn is a heart, we have to fold. So I don't want to put another bet in on the flop if I'm going to have to fold the turn anyway.

If I wait until the turn, I can fold if it's a heart, and raise to charge FDs if it isn't.

Buzz-cp · #20 10-09-2006, 09:31 PM

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I don't see how this is a 'wait for a safe turn card'

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If the turn is a heart, we have to fold. So I don't want to put another bet in on the flop if I'm going to have to fold the turn anyway.

If I wait until the turn, I can fold if it's a heart, and raise to charge FDs if it isn't.

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You can fold if a heart falls, even if you put one more bet in here. You can't possibly be tied to the pot, unless it is the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Look at it this way: You put extra money in preflop when you have AK with an equity advantage, even though the flop will dramatically change your equity. Why not put money in here, when we have an equity advantage?

Buzz