How smart does one need to be... - Page 2

madnak · #11 10-09-2006, 12:48 PM

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I should have included that those numbers were from a university that I taught at.

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The stats at one university aren't necessarily indicative of the stats throughout the population. Especially where acceptance rates are concerned.

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Let me add that the acceptance rate is closer to 30%, and I am of course referring to calculus for engineers and scientists which is the only calc. course that would apply since we're talking about future statisticians.

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No, we're talking about who could be a statistician if they wanted to and had the necessary work ethic, resources, etc.

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My point is this.. It ends up being a small percentage OF these entering freshman students that pass calculus.

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Did you mean 70% fail, and 30% pass? You said it the other way around. If 70% of the people in a freshman calc class are failing, something's wrong and it isn't the students.

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Now, OF the WHOLE population of 18 year olds, this number is of course EVEN SMALLER.

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Not by as much as you're making it out to be. Plenty of people who never go to college could have passed a calc class if they had gone. You can't make the blanket assumption that anyone who doesn't go to college is a failure at math.

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When I was in HS, by the time we were seniors, in a class of 250, there were 30 students who took either AP Calc, or Calc, but not AP. This is roughly 10%. Now, figure we lost 60 or so idiots who either dropped out, or went to vocational school.. This is less than 10%. Now, of those I went to school with , I would say maybe 15 of them could have gotten a stat degree. This is about 5%.

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My high school had very different statistics. Even if it didn't, not taking calculus in high school isn't the same as being unable to get a stat degree. And "what you would say" isn't particularly relevant.

If the mean IQ among PhDs is 120, the average IQ is 100, and the standard deviation for IQ is 15, then what does that tell you about how many people have a sufficient IQ score to become PhDs? This isn't a matter of your impressions.

southerndog · #12 10-09-2006, 12:58 PM

What is your %age then?

Look, my point is that it is not 50%. Its not close. Its not 20%. Its not 15%. Its probably not 10%, but somewhere in between 5-10%.

You have NO IDEA what you are talking about. I worked in Academia. I have an advanced degree in statistics. I have taught college students. I have tutored GRADUATE STUDENTS.

I don' tknow about your avg. Q of 120 for a Ph.D. But, we are not talking about an avg. phd. either. Aside from a few engineering disciplines, and physics, this is about as difficult of a ph. d as you can get. I know people who could not pass a 101 level stat class that are getting phd's in education.

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Let's keep it civil, folks. -Rduke55 </font>

madnak · #13 10-09-2006, 01:40 PM

You're right. Based on the US Employment Service General Aptitude Test Battery and various IQ studies 120 is probably too low for the average PhD and PhDs in mathematics and physics average in the 130-140 range.

madnak · #14 10-09-2006, 01:43 PM

By the way, OP, that means 1 or 2 in 100 people will have what it takes. You'd need to be comfortably clear of the top percentile to really succeed.

Darryl_P · #15 10-09-2006, 02:19 PM

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By the way, OP, that means 1 or 2 in 100 people will have what it takes. You'd need to be comfortably clear of the top percentile to really succeed.

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Are you saying that if you were offered a billion dollars to take a 16 year-old kid with an IQ of 105 and have him get a masters in stats within 10 years, without cheating of course, that you couldn't do it?

madnak · #16 10-09-2006, 03:09 PM

Well, that's a question of nature versus nurture. Whichever is responible for the trend, very few seem to make it. I don't believe I could get most 16-year-old kids through, but of course with a billion dollars I'd have good odds.

I'm also assuming that all else is equal - for example, if the kid has a superhuman work ethic and is really genuinely interested in statistics, then I'd give him a much higher chance of success. Even if you just say a motivated 16-year-old, my answer would change.

Darryl_P · #17 10-09-2006, 03:23 PM

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Well, that's a question of nature versus nurture. Whichever is responible for the trend, very few seem to make it. I don't believe I could get most 16-year-old kids through, but of course with a billion dollars I'd have good odds.

I'm also assuming that all else is equal - for example, if the kid has a superhuman work ethic and is really genuinely interested in statistics, then I'd give him a much higher chance of success. Even if you just say a motivated 16-year-old, my answer would change.

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OK fair enough. I am assuming that you could use a portion of the billion dollars to get just about any 16 year-old very motivated indeed, but it's true that even big money fails to motivate some.

madnak · #18 10-09-2006, 04:04 PM

I'm not so sure. For the first month, yeah. Maybe the first year. By the time he's in grad school? I doubt he'll be putting his full energy into it, or anything close. Sufficient discipline would get him around that, but then we're adding another requirement.

guesswest · #19 10-09-2006, 04:28 PM

I have no idea what kind of IQ range stats phds fall into. But it does occur to me that even if you establish this number it doesn't necessarily speak to who could do this. It may well be that lower IQ ranges could, but simply don't get off on it, because a lack of motivation is dictated by their experience of the subject. Advanced statistics might be boring to someone with a low IQ in the same way action painting might be boring to someone who is colour blind.

chezlaw · #20 10-09-2006, 04:44 PM

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I have no idea what kind of IQ range stats phds fall into. But it does occur to me that even if you establish this number it doesn't necessarily speak to who could do this. It may well be that lower IQ ranges could, but simply don't get off on it, because a lack of motivation is dictated by their experience of the subject. Advanced statistics might be boring to someone with a low IQ in the same way action painting might be boring to someone who is colour blind.

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I agree, its fairly meaningless. Generally only the better students get to take PHds but that doesn't mean the lessor students couldn't pass them. I suspect most could given enough time, dedication and support. Not sure how this proves anything about anything.

There's some good prop bets here. I reckon I could train anyone who is numerate and motivated to pass freshman calculus. Very few brain cells are required.

chez