To bet or not to bet the turn... that is the question - Page 2

MrWookie · #11 10-08-2006, 05:09 PM

If we get a free card, it's overwhelmingly likely that we didn't want to give it.

Buzz-cp · #12 10-08-2006, 05:13 PM

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Villain is of the LP variety.

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He may have flopped a gutshot or a flush draw, and so we we'd be betting for value. He usually has a hand in other ways (small PP or hit the flop/turn). We can't figure we are usually ahead, and the bluff value of a turn bet is pretty much non-existent. ergo, we take a free card.

Buzz

Buzz-cp · #13 10-08-2006, 05:16 PM

I want to add, that if we miss pairing on the river, this villain will probably check to us, and we can take a free SD. He is usually not betting unless he has a hand. Note, I probably would call a river bet by any tricky/solid/laggish player.

Sushiglutton · #14 10-08-2006, 05:16 PM

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If we get a free card, it's overwhelmingly likely that we didn't want to give it.

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That depends on the definition of LP I guess, but u have a point. I think some LP will give s FC with any pair < top pair.

Buzz-cp · #15 10-08-2006, 05:18 PM

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If we get a free card, it's overwhelmingly likely that we didn't want to give it.

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Sorry, but this seems contradictory. You are saying that if villain checks to us, we are giving him a free card? I don't follow...

Sushiglutton · #16 10-08-2006, 05:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
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If we get a free card, it's overwhelmingly likely that we didn't want to give it.

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Sorry, but this seems contradictory. You are saying that if villain checks to us, we are giving him a free card? I don't follow...

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Villain could have either a made hand or a draw. If he has a draw we are ahead and do not want to give a FC. If we check he will (here's where I disagree) bet his better hands and check behind with the draws. So if he check we are in fact giving him a FC.

Buzz-cp · #17 10-08-2006, 05:21 PM

holy crap we are oop...meh.

as such disregard my advice. I still don't like betting teh turn tho. We can c/c.

detruncate · #18 10-08-2006, 05:25 PM

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If we get a free card, it's overwhelmingly likely that we didn't want to give it.

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Depends on Villain. Lots of passive types will check behind with a pair < TP. Overall agression level matters some. I assumed a generally passive micro game LP.

Sushiglutton · #19 10-08-2006, 05:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If we get a free card, it's overwhelmingly likely that we didn't want to give it.

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That depends on the definition of LP I guess, but u have a point. I think some LP will give s FC with any pair < top pair.

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After giving the hand some thought I change my vote to betting. We have too much equity here not to bet.

Str8Fish · #20 10-08-2006, 05:47 PM

This is how I understand the conversation that Wookie, Smurf, and I had about betting the turn:

If we are behind on the turn, most likely our A outs are good a majority of the time, maybe giving ourselves 2 out of 3 outs. Q outs are very reduced, maybe giving us 0.5 outs to them at the most. We obviously have a majority of our 8 outs to a straight, maybe we can reduce it to 6 outs for the times the flush hits for the villain. I wouldn't take it lower than that though (and probably should be something like 7 outs). So we have ~8.5 outs for the times that we're behind (4.5:1, 18% equity when behind). We were also noticing that at this level, many of the loose/passives were peeling the flop loosely, which makes it a good chance that we do have the best hand at the moment, so we do have a lot of equity in this hand. So if we bet, we either take down the pot there, or get raised. At the time of the bet, we're assuming we have the best hand a majority of the time against this opponent. If we're raised, we're obviously behind, but we have odds to call and see the river. If we were to check, we could give a worse hand to our opponent a chance to catch up to us when we could have taken it down by a turn bet. We also induce a bluff on the river by checking, which we can avoid by betting on the turn. I'm probably missing something else in there as well, but I think that's enough reasons to bet the turn.