When The Big Blind Is Too Tight

[TakenItEasy]

[ QUOTE ]
is this a trick question? x increases because we're winning more uncontested pots.

theoretically x should increase by 33%, i think

[/ QUOTE ]

I had to think about this one but I don't think it's that simple. If your steal raise is always 3x than against the first player you are risking 3 to get his call + 3 folds or 3 to get 6. BB has a hand range of top 25% and you need a range to win 33.3% of the time vs a top 25% hand, so any 2 cards.

If BB calls 1 in 6 you are risking 3 for 3+5 so you are getting 8:3. BB has a range of top 16.7% and you need a range that will win 27% vs top 16.7% hand so any 2 cards.

Of course this assumes that the button, sb & bb won't adjust and you never get reraised and you are good at playing rags to their full potential, etc.

[LearnedfromTV]

This depends just as much on the SB and Button, because the adjustment you make by exclusively considering the BB's tendencies makes you exploitable to them.

I think 33% increase in raising hands is way too much if the SB and Button are good.

Also, there is definitely not a linear or inverse correspondence between the BB's adjustment and your counteradjustment. In other words, "he's folding 33% more hands, therefore raise 33% more" isn't thinking about the problem correctly.

Also, for those who said this makes his calling range AJ+, 77+, a) that's way too narrow, top 7% or so, b) he didn't say anything about reraising, I think we have to assume both reraise 3-4%. This is actually an important clarification question for David - does 1/4th and 1/6th reflect calls *and* reraises or just calls.

[sccrneo]

Isnt the most important factor for steal frequency depend on the loosest of the players left to act. If button or SB were to call 1/2 the time, then it doesnt matter as much that the BB only calls 1/6 of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
This depends just as much on the SB and Button, because the adjustment you make by exclusively considering the BB's tendencies makes you exploitable to them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. The best stealing strategy would balance the calling ranges of all three opponents left to ask instead of just the tight BB.

[JoseGonzlez]

i hear what your saying about weighting the 3. However, in a shallow money tournament the BB is probably going to be the most important person.
Even at the later stages of a deep stack event the stacks might be a bit too shallow for players to be overly creative this may be true

[stokken]

I agree with Gobbo, I dont see the prob
If he doesnt reraise even, hell we might get a flopp we take down as well.

Simple as that, unless Im reading something wrong.
Say we get away with a 2,5 xbb raise. Meaning that we earn 5 pots uncontested for everyone that is fought
5x 1,5bb= 7,5bb and then we have 1 occasion where we`ll loose 2,5bb somex%of the time. Ill raise any two on this guy. We would have to raise a stupid amount each time for this not to be profitable no?


Stokken

[mornelth]

[ QUOTE ]
However, in a shallow money tournament the BB is probably going to be the most important person.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you even read the question???

Anyhow - the tighter BB plays - the less respect I will give to ANY LP raiser, so assuming that the Button and SB are both awake (and think the same way) I may not change my raising frequency much at all.

Edit : I may change my re-steal frequency since I expect MP's to steal with higher frequency against 1/6 BB vs. 1/4 BB.

[Percussion]

If I raise every time (which is what I would do) Wouldnt the big blind loosen up? or the button?

I would raise every time if I can take it down 5 out of 6 times pre, and then at LEAST 50% of the time on the flop

[jason75]

[ QUOTE ]
Someone posted that Chris Bell said I was playing way too tight in the Borgata 10K tournament where I took third. He supposedly went on to say that because of that he was doing a lot more blind stealing when I was in the Big Blind and he was in the cutoff.

Forgetting about the fact that he didn't see my folded hands and his sample size was too small to be sure I was prepared to fold as many hands as he thought I would, the question arises as to his supposed counter strategy. To wit:

If all have a deepish stack, you are in the cutoff seat, the big blind calls your raises once in four, and you thus raise first in with x per cent of your hands, how does x change if a new player, at least as tough as the previous one postflop, takes over in the big blind calling your preflop raises one in six?

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming that we're not changing our raise size, ignoring calling equity and just estimating stealing success rates, we should raise an additional 8.3% of hands over our existing raising rate.

Here's why (I think):

Stealing Success Rate (SSR) = (1-Button calling/raising frequency) * (1-SB C/R frequency) * (1-BB C/R Freq)

If we hold the button and SB frequencies constant (the same players playing the same style), then this becomes

SSR = (1-BB C/R Freq) * C

So as BB C/R Freq goes to zero, SSR goes to C (dead blind situation)

As BB C/R Freq goes to 100%, SSR goes to zero (calling station in the BB)

Since (1-BB C/R Freq) is just a %, and there is an inverse proportional relationship between SR and (1-BB C/R Freq), as BB C/R Freq decreases, SR directly increases at that % rate.

So if the BB C/R Freq is 10% instead of 25%, we should now increase our raising hands by 15% over what we were previously raising.

So if we were raising 50% of hands, we should now raise 50% *1.15 = 57.5% of the time

In David's example, BB's calling/raising frequency decreases from 25% to 16.7%, a decrease of 8.3%. So we should now increase the % of hands we're raising to by an additional 8.3% of what we were previously raising. So if we were raising 50% of hands previously, we should be raising 50% *1.083 = 54% of hands.

[mornelth]

8.3% of our raising range is so small anumber as to not matter at all when you consider the changes in SB/BUT re-stealing and MP stealing frequencies. Keeping everyone else's ranges the same while changing BB is unrealistic.

[Machinehead]

[ QUOTE ]
If he really is that tight I would raise his blind 100% of the time. In a tournament if he only defends his blinds 1/6 times his ass is mine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are we assuming that nobody adjusts to us stealing 100% of the time? BB would be the most obvious to adjust, but a good player in the button or SB would notice what you're doing and play back at you.