Live 1/2 Flop bottom set, coordinated board, strange play - Page 2

DougieG · #11 09-23-2006, 05:26 AM

yes well giving too much credit to bad players is a good problem to have I spose. You guys really seem to think JJ-AA is calling pf from the sb here huh? I just don't see that being the case...I feel like this is the same thing, giving too much credit where it isn't due. I don't think many players are cagey enough to play an overpair like that...I could be wrong, it has happened before, but I don't think he is flat calling after another caller with JJ-AA often enough to consider it a likely holding at all.

wheatrich · #12 09-23-2006, 05:32 AM

They aren't being cagey when they do that. You had to think SB had 1010 or 99 because I think you had odds to fill up against J8. 109 would do that as well. He really could have had JJ or QQ btw. A lot of people don't reraise those preflop.

Tablerat · #13 09-23-2006, 05:34 AM

Was this a home game?

[ QUOTE ]
Why would anybody push into that dry sidepot without any sort of made hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

You may have given your opponents too much credit for their plays - you're displacing their motives with your experience and analysis, at the expense of +EV situations. Maybe this is just your wording, but replace "anybody" in the quote above with SB, and make sure that you keep it player/situation specific. You may be out-thinking yourself here, especially with the dry sidepot issue. Many, many players would not even factor that into their action.

DougieG · #14 09-23-2006, 05:38 AM

??? this is part of the problem. I don't know a hand that I can beat. Perhaps 9T? 9T makes sense. flat calling from the sb with JJ-AA is not standard to the avg player IMO. It is possible, but doesn't seem likely. If you don't factor in the dry sidepot then his range opens up considerably, but if you figure he has to have at least UTG+2 beat with some sort of pair at the very least I don't like my chances.

I think 99 and TT are the most common hands seen given the c/r all in on that flop into a dry sidepot. Without a dry sidepot the hand plays out differently and I don't think we can assume SB is just a moron and therefore isn't taking the lack of a sidepot into consideration.

DougieG · #15 09-23-2006, 05:43 AM

Tablerat just saw your post. I think part of the problem was the 'tells' SB was giving off. He seemed quite comfortable with his hand. I don't know why when he had Q high but he seemed like he was very content with getting all his money in.

I did find out immediately after the hand that he was stuck 700 at Blackjack before he started playing poker, knowing this i would call immediately because he would have much more incentive to gamble and his reaction of "Ok well I'm all in too" wouldn't appear as fabricated.

Proofrock · #16 09-23-2006, 06:02 AM

(NOTE: I've seen the results, so this isn't an analysis, just a comment)

You've incorrectly referred to the dry side pot a few times here. You haven't called UTG+2 push yet, so your bet could be a CB or it could be AT,JJ+, hands that may reasonably fold to his isolation push.

By the way -- if he just calls and you push (which you'll probably do with a set), he's about a 3 to 1 dog. He's getting 2.6 to 1 to call, so he'll be compelled to call unless he figures you range is exactly a set.

If SB decides to stick with it on the flop, then pushing seems like the best choice, as the result will be the same when you have a set but he will fold a lot of your weaker hands that currently beat Q high.

DougieG · #17 09-23-2006, 06:15 AM

I understand that Proofrock. You referred to his 'isolation push'. I knew this is what he was doing, I know that there is no side pot yet and he has no idea what to put me on. Obv he isn't putting me on a set, probly is just putting me on AK or so, but why would you isolate with Q high?

I didn't think there was any way it was an isolation push with a draw...as that doesn't make sense. This is what I was referring to with the dry side pot, if he had a draw he would want a sidepot since it's highly unlikely Q high is good right now.

Proofrock · #18 09-23-2006, 06:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I understand that Proofrock. You referred to his 'isolation push'. I knew this is what he was doing, I know that there is no side pot yet and he has no idea what to put me on. Obv he isn't putting me on a set, probly is just putting me on AK or so, but why would you isolate with Q high?

I didn't think there was any way it was an isolation push with a draw...as that doesn't make sense. This is what I was referring to with the dry side pot, if he had a draw he would want a sidepot since it's highly unlikely Q high is good right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

What range do you figure for UTG+2?

QJ on a 7 9 T board is not bad -- OESD + two overs means he's coinflipping with TPTK. His overcard outs aren't so good if you're in there, so by pushing he hopes to buy some more outs. If you're willing to fold bottom set to that action, what about JJ+?

He's not pushing because he thinks Q high is the best hand now, but because it will develop into the best hand much more often when you're out of the hand.

SimonAllan · #19 09-23-2006, 07:47 AM

A lot of villains will not shove with a set here, because you are unlikely to call over two all-ins, and they want your stack as well. Also, giving opponents too much credit is not a good thing if you want to make money.