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#11
09-18-2006, 02:29 PM
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Re: Huge Hedge: ATTN: Homer Performify etc.
not to threadcrap here, but 40-1 on the twins to win the pennant was really -EV on june 25. that said, congrats on having this problem in the first place.
though you can short on tradesports, they don't really deal the volume you'd need, although i assume that would improve come playoff time. wsex is a better option for some of it, but you'd still need a lot of money to pull it off, like 75-80% of the hedge amount. re: the liriano injury, the books have already reacted and adjusted their lines. in particular, the yankees' futures payoffs dropped quickly. i'd line shop between now and october 3rd and bet the best lines i can find on each team. this may require opening a bunch of online sportsbook accounts, but that just means more bonus money, right? 
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#12
09-18-2006, 02:31 PM
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Re: Huge Hedge: ATTN: Homer Performify etc.
[ QUOTE ]
Lots of questions I guess first of all if we do not hedge and win and go cash the ticket at MGM Grand, do they give us a 1099 or a W2 or do they just give us cash? [/ QUOTE ] I'm sure for a win of that size there will be forms you have to fill out. [ QUOTE ] Secondly I dont think we will be able to get off enough action online to hedge enough so we might have to fly to vegas and hit casinos till we got enough. [/ QUOTE ] Is this because you don't have enough money online or because you don't think online books will take that much action (because they most certainly will if you spread the bets between books)? [ QUOTE ] The biggest question we have really is mathematicly what is the best way to do this? Obviously there are 1000 questions I just want to get the ball rolling. All help appreciated. [/ QUOTE ] As B00T and others said, to hedge fully will involve a lot of funds. For example, at WSEX you can sell Minnesota winning the AL (betting against them winning, basically) at 20, which is essentially -400. To hedge fully, you'd have to bet $53,760 on this (EV would be $11,840 btw). Since you can't fully hedge, maybe you'll want to at least lock in no loss. To do this, just bet $6400 on the -400 line. That way, if Minnesota doesn't make the WS you win $0, and if they do, you win $59,200. Whatever you decide to do, good luck. p.s. - I didn't look at all books, so keep in mind there's probably a better line for hedging than the one in my example.
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#13
09-18-2006, 02:32 PM
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Re: Huge Hedge: ATTN: Homer Performify etc.
I'm not much of a hedger, but here is my 2 cents. Wait till they make the playoffs, if they do play the Yanks in the first round bet the Yanks at + whatever to make the world series. then if the Yanks do beat the Twins take their opponent in the ALCS for + whatever.
But I'm a homer and wouldn't hedge cause Santana will win two and Silva will beat the yanks one time.
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#14
09-18-2006, 02:35 PM
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Re: Huge Hedge: ATTN: Homer Performify etc.
[ QUOTE ]
not to threadcrap here, but 40-1 on the twins to win the pennant was really -EV on june 25. that said, congrats on having this problem in the first place. though you can short on tradesports, they don't really deal the volume you'd need, although i assume that would improve come playoff time. wsex is a better option for some of it, but you'd still need a lot of money to pull it off, like 75-80% of the hedge amount. re: the liriano injury, the books have already reacted and adjusted their lines. in particular, the yankees' futures payoffs dropped quickly. i'd line shop between now and october 3rd and bet the best lines i can find on each team. this may require opening a bunch of online sportsbook accounts, but that just means more bonus money, right? [/ QUOTE ] They were not -ev on june 25th. Do you see why?
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#15
09-18-2006, 02:37 PM
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Re: Huge Hedge: ATTN: Homer Performify etc.
[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea what the liquidity is like now as I don't use the place (as it used to have low liquidity), but you might be able to short on Tradesports. Lori [/ QUOTE ] Them, and the other exchanges as well.
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#16
09-18-2006, 02:39 PM
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Re: Huge Hedge: ATTN: Homer Performify etc.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] not to threadcrap here, but 40-1 on the twins to win the pennant was really -EV on june 25. that said, congrats on having this problem in the first place. though you can short on tradesports, they don't really deal the volume you'd need, although i assume that would improve come playoff time. wsex is a better option for some of it, but you'd still need a lot of money to pull it off, like 75-80% of the hedge amount. re: the liriano injury, the books have already reacted and adjusted their lines. in particular, the yankees' futures payoffs dropped quickly. i'd line shop between now and october 3rd and bet the best lines i can find on each team. this may require opening a bunch of online sportsbook accounts, but that just means more bonus money, right? [/ QUOTE ] They were not -ev on june 25th. Do you see why? [/ QUOTE ] This is gonna go off on a big tangent in a minute when others respond to this, but... On June 25th, I'm sure reasonable estimates had them at higher than 40-1 to make the WS, meaning a 40-1 bet is -EV. What you're saying is kind of like taking 4-1 on guessing on the roll of a die, someone saying it's -EV and you saying "no it wasn't, bc I won".
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#17
09-18-2006, 02:40 PM
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Re: Huge Hedge: ATTN: Homer Performify etc.
Funds are not a problem online or in vegas. It will just be hard to do it online because:
3 different people have this bet. Real money no strings is worth a lot more than online money. It will be hard to split it up. I figured it would be hard to bet 20k on the yankees at a decent price as it looks like only pinny and a couple other books will have decent odds (ie. there 11-10 on SB) We almost will surely wait till the playoffs start to pull the trigger as obviously a lot of things can happen in 14 games. But say the Twins go to yankee stadium. Is the way to do this bet the Yankees right than and there and dont bet the other 2 teams? What if the Twins win though? Then we have to bet another huge chunk on the A's/Detoriot at prolly -110. Yuck.
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#18
09-18-2006, 02:45 PM
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Re: Huge Hedge: ATTN: Homer Performify etc.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] not to threadcrap here, but 40-1 on the twins to win the pennant was really -EV on june 25. that said, congrats on having this problem in the first place. though you can short on tradesports, they don't really deal the volume you'd need, although i assume that would improve come playoff time. wsex is a better option for some of it, but you'd still need a lot of money to pull it off, like 75-80% of the hedge amount. re: the liriano injury, the books have already reacted and adjusted their lines. in particular, the yankees' futures payoffs dropped quickly. i'd line shop between now and october 3rd and bet the best lines i can find on each team. this may require opening a bunch of online sportsbook accounts, but that just means more bonus money, right? [/ QUOTE ] They were not -ev on june 25th. Do you see why? [/ QUOTE ] This is gonna go off on a big tangent in a minute when others respond to this, but... On June 25th, I'm sure reasonable estimates had them at higher than 40-1 to make the WS, meaning a 40-1 bet is -EV. What you're saying is kind of like taking 4-1 on guessing on the roll of a die, someone saying it's -EV and you saying "no it wasn't, bc I won". [/ QUOTE ] Obviously I did a little bit of research on this before I made a $1600 bet. At the time of the bet the Twins were out 11.0 of div and 9.5 of WC if I recall. Pinny had them at +3000 to win the AL pennat and I felt they should have been more like +1800-2100 as they were by far the best team in baseball. I was going to bet them on Pinnacle the next day but I was in Vegas for the WSOP and walked into the MGM Grand sportsbook. The Twins were 40-1 to win the Pennant. I said well thats cool. I scan down the sheet. The Indians are 12-1 to win the AL Pennant. Well On June 25th the Twins were up 6 games on the Indians and had gained about 10 games in 15 days. GG MGM Grand. Edited to fix #'s on the games up on CLE and back of CHI DET
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#20
09-18-2006, 02:51 PM
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Re: Huge Hedge: ATTN: Homer Performify etc.
[ QUOTE ]
Funds are not a problem online or in vegas. It will just be hard to do it online because: 3 different people have this bet. Real money no strings is worth a lot more than online money. It will be hard to split it up. [/ QUOTE ] This should make it easier, actually, if only you want to hedge. Just pretend you have $533 at 40-1 and take care of hedging your portion of the bet. It doesn't change the fact that if this cashes, you'll get 1/3 of the payout. [ QUOTE ] We almost will surely wait till the playoffs start to pull the trigger as obviously a lot of things can happen in 14 games. But say the Twins go to yankee stadium. Is the way to do this bet the Yankees right than and there and dont bet the other 2 teams? [/ QUOTE ] You can't fully hedge right there, because if the Yankees win the series, you'd have to rehedge. To fully hedge now, you either have to bet on the Twins to lose the AL, or on all of their opponents to win (differet amounts, obviously).
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