Daliman's Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2

[B-Man]

Daliman,

What percentage of wong teasers (the teams, not the bets) typically cover over the course of a season?

Based on my voodoo math, if there are 4 wong-able teams each week, thus 6 2-point teasers, you need 3 out of 4 to break even, 4 out of 4 to make a profit, right? So over the course of the season you need > 75% to make money? How often does this happen?

Is 4-5 wong-able teams per week typical?

Good luck.

[Bishop22]

[ QUOTE ]
Daliman,

What percentage of wong teasers (the teams, not the bets) typically cover over the course of a season?

Based on my voodoo math, if there are 4 wong-able teams each week, thus 6 2-point teasers, you need 3 out of 4 to break even, 4 out of 4 to make a profit, right? So over the course of the season you need > 75% to make money? How often does this happen?

Is 4-5 wong-able teams per week typical?

Good luck.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to SSB the break even point for a +100 6-point tease is 70.7%. Wong predicts 74-75% is the actual number of covers, although the Wong teases were only running at 71% since 2000 (insignificant sample). IIRC the break even point doesn't factor in pushes so there is more ev than it may seem.

[sublime]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Daliman,

What percentage of wong teasers (the teams, not the bets) typically cover over the course of a season?

Based on my voodoo math, if there are 4 wong-able teams each week, thus 6 2-point teasers, you need 3 out of 4 to break even, 4 out of 4 to make a profit, right? So over the course of the season you need > 75% to make money? How often does this happen?

Is 4-5 wong-able teams per week typical?

Good luck.

[/ QUOTE ]

According to SSB the break even point for a +100 6-point tease is 70.7%. Wong predicts 74-75% is the actual number of covers, although the Wong teases were only running at 71% since 2000 (insignificant sample). IIRC the break even point doesn't factor in pushes so there is more ev than it may seem.

[/ QUOTE ]

does wong calculate vs -110? i think he does.

while +100 is a lot harder to get this year, its still available and so is -105.

[Bishop22]

-110 breakeven is 72.4%, I just assumed most people were betting at Mansion since the promotion.

[JJguy]

[ QUOTE ]
First, we're talking about teasers. You link two games, move the spread by six points in your favor in each. So if you tease Chicago and Seattle you end up with: Chicago -2.5 and Seattle -1 as the lines, with the tease paying Even Money (or -110 on Bodog).

The most important value in these teasers is to cross the 7 and the 3, which is the system Daliman is playing here (he's playing all teasers that cross both the 7 and 3, and he's possibly playing those that end on 3/7.

I'm not commenting on Seattle -7 at this time, but I love Seattle -1 and I love Chicago -2.5, so I love the teaser.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I took the teaser on Seattle/Chicago for even money on mansion. My first time experimenting with a teaser bet, so I'm kind of stoked for this Sunday [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


There is no way I could include Green Bay in this. In fact, my second bet was on New Orleans -2 because I'm fairly confident that Green Bay really really really really really really really sucks.

hopefully these picks work out...

[sfwusc]

I think that is smart. If you are like moving the line six points doesnt make me good, then you likely should take the other side.

Ex

Green Bay +8 I will Pass
N.O -2 Must be atleast interesting.

-SFWUSC

[sfwusc]

I think I am going to take the 3 for one teaser and place around 2- 2.5 units on it.

Assuming 75% of each game is won. It should it 42% of the time. Then again I am throwing out the game I think is a loser...so maybe I am 100% to win [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

-SFWUSC

[Homer]

I took Seattle -1 & Vikings +8, but not any of the other permutations...just doing this for fun.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that is smart. If you are like moving the line six points doesnt make me good, then you likely should take the other side.

Ex

Green Bay +8 I will Pass
N.O -2 Must be atleast interesting.

-SFWUSC

[/ QUOTE ]

Non-wonged teaser bets are inherently -EV; probably even more so than regular bets. If you like N.O., take them straight up.

[Artdogg]

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Non-wonged teaser bets are inherently -EV

[/ QUOTE ]

you positive that teasing small dogs is better then teasing 6-6.5 point favs?