I really dont know how to account for the bubble here....

[NoahSD]

This looks like a pretty good spot for a resteal to me. I'm also curious as to what's gonna come.

(Editted because I misread stacks.)

[registrar]

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the thing i dont like about a flat call is you still dont know if he's on a monster (unlikely) or a weak hand such that a flop that hits you may just make you second best.

I dont like a push here as theres probably a 20%ish chance that he has a monster. I think i make a bet of like 10k to get a sense of where i am. if he pushes i have no problem folding as the chances of him having a monster at least in my mind increases. Somewhat depending on your reads but i got to believe this guy has some knowledge of the bubble and that you should/would tighten up somewhat - if so, then his push tells me he has a hand. If he calls, I play it fast assuming he checks ( assume theres a 10% of amonster at this point - he may be slowplaying a set or something similar, but i risk it) , if he pushes and i totally miss i prob fold.

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You can't raise 1/3 of your stack and then fold to a push. Well, you can but it's not a good idea.

[whynot?]

i hear ya on not folding when you put in 1/3 of your stack but

if he pushes over the top I got to at least credit him with some sort of hand - top 10% i think is fair - you're a 65/35 dog to that range - the pot odds give you 19k to win 40.6 (if i did my math right) or slightly better then 2 to 1. so pot odds says its a very slight call

so then to me you need to factor in strategic factors and this is where making the money versus getting a big stack come into play - notionally the right answer is to play for a win - i agree - but many (albeit most?) would take the $50bucks or so.

I do agree that if youre going to call the raise you better off pushing -

[NHFunkii]

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If you jam, are you pushing because you think you are ahead of his range, or because you are restealing?

I don't think you are ahead of his range, and restealing here has more risk, so just call.

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umm... jamming because you're 'ahead of his range' is meaningless unless you're ahead of his calling range (hint, K9 is not ahead of his calling range)

so yeah, it'd obviously be a resteal, but I think it's a pretty easy one and one that is certainly +cEV, probably +$EV (bubble blah blah, I personally never pay attention to the mtt bubble except in extreme circumstances because I generally don't care in the least about cashing, but I digress), and probably more +$EV than calling. I just think you're folding to a cbet a ton here and I think a ton of those times he would have folded to a reraise preflop.

that said, I'm curious where this hand is going

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Restealing would be +EV and so that is always an option here. However, hero clearly didn't and I would like to know whether all of his raises pre-flop were min and, if not, what hereo thinks that a min here signifies.

Funkii, nice simple logic that villain folds a lot to a pre-flop resteals but hero folds to a lot of flop c-bets but hero is to act first. Isn't hero generally leading 2/3 pot here, if hero calls pre-flop, somewhat, but not particularly, based on the texture of the flop.

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umm... I dunno what hero is doing if he calls, but I don't think you can say that he is 'generally calling a button minraise and leading out' as that line doesn't happen very often, at least in my experience. Anyway, with that line, I think you're EXTREMELY likely to get bluff raised off of it, I know if someone called a minraise on the bubble and then led into me I would be about 90% sure that they were folding to a push. Just shove.

[A_PLUS]

He had not min-raised that I remembered before. In fact I didnt remember him raising at all, just noticed that his PA HUD stats were over 15% for PFR in something like 20 hands.

I decided not to resteal, b/c I have no real reason too. (I was deep in other events at the time, so I wast paying close enough attention). Sure, my hand is pretty good, but I am deep enough that my hand doesnt matter unless it has equity vs his call range (which it doesnt).

But, I am getting 4-1 here, and have a better than average hand. In my experience, I havent found a min-raise to mean anything consistently enough to use it here.

So I call.

Flop (7650) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero?

[AceLuby]

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You could try a reraise; it smells like a cheap steal to me. He's been winning PF uncontested; have all his PF bets been minimum raises? You could raise him to about half your stack or a little less. I don't really like the call out of position, though.

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This sounds awful.

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Agreed, really gross, I not only vomited in my mouth, a little spilled onto my computer.

[shaundeeb]

Hmm I am shocked no one noticed what is obv the best play here raising to 10-11k PF, fold if he shoves and if he flat calls which is rarely shove the flop no matter what comes.

[A_PLUS]

As for the PF play, lets not get carried away with his prior actions. 20 hands, all we really know is that he probably isnt TT+, AK tight to open. If we think a push is +EV, we are pretty much saying that for a random player, and given our hand and stack, a random hand. That is probably true, but I dont like the risk reward. This is where the bubble does come into play. Not really that I want to fold into 50$, but b/c I think having my stack size with 80 players left is worth a pretty good amount of $, and I dont know that adding 3.5xBB to it right now is worth the risk. If I knew he had opened 3x from the CO-Bu in last 2 orbits, I would jam, since I dont know, I went with the call.

[schavuit]

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Hmm I am shocked no one noticed what is obv the best play here raising to 10-11k PF, fold if he shoves and if he flat calls which is rarely shove the flop no matter what comes.

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Sounds good to me, why resteal with your whole stack, when you can do it with less.

[NoahSD]

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Hmm I am shocked no one noticed what is obv the best play here raising to 10-11k PF, fold if he shoves and if he flat calls which is rarely shove the flop no matter what comes.

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That's because this leaves us folding when getting better than 2:1 to call a push.

Folding after raising to 10k may be right (didn't check), but raising to 10k with the intention to fold is wrong because it lets him push some marginal hands that he may fold to a push.