My toughest hand of this week (9/04)

[NoahSD]

Wow.. I really hate a turn raise. Either let him hang himself or fold.

Have you seem him bluff full pot? If you've seen him bet small with marginal holdings and bet big without showing down, I'd fold thid quickly.

Also, how'd he play the QTo hand. This is really read dependent because even some maniacs pretty much always have an 8 when they c/r the flop.

[Clayton]

he bet 8, dude made it 24, he made it 40. and then called the shove.

that should help

[furyshade]

um, on flop, what hands do you beat that raise that much other than 99 or air?

[Clayton]

he will do this with 77-44 and 22 as well

however that is not the point. come the turn checkraise i am anticipating his turn action will dictate his holdings more narrowly. also i dont want to give ppl the impression i am that easy to blow off the hand.

u seem to be implying a flop fold, as I sure as hell am not threebetting this flop. that would be the appropriate time to ask what I beat.

[mj12]

Fold. And you don't have to charge him to draw if u decide to raise, its already costing him a PSB, he is never folding a J here with the way you described him. On top of that you said he led weakish with marginal hands.

EZ fold

[yellowsub]

imo against an unknown, it is a clear F, but in this case, it seems as though ur read on the villan as a lag clown was good enuf to turn ur hand into a bluff. i like it

[Gary Stevenson]

i highly doubt he's insta potting (not sure why i assume he insta bet, i bet he did though?) the turn with Jx here after c/r bluffing the flop. he'd either bet again smaller than pot most of the time, maybe check..

[Clayton]

same argument applies with an eight imo. yea he potted after like 3 seconds.

yellowsub thinks its similar to AZK's points in strasser's kings thread in hsnl

difference being in his hand villain is betting 1/3 of his stack where hero covers, and in my hand villain is betting almost 50% of my stack, where villain covers.

[Gary Stevenson]

i know donks do weird/dumb things a lot. i just dont see them making big over-the-top bluffs for semi deep stacks. though with your read on him i guess this is possible..? for some reason when these donks try to bluff like this they rarely want to make "big" bets and lose a lot of money bluffing, they'll usually fire around 1/2 pot or so from my experience.

[aceswild83]

normally I would say insta-fold but I can see him having air here. 1st off he a tricky LAG bluffer who overvalues hands and he's running real hot, sometimes people go crazy sitting with 6 buyins, so his general style fits the kind of player who might try to rep an 8, ofc that doesn't mean he doesn't have it.

2nd He c/red pretty big on the flop while in the other hand when he had QT he min re-raised with a hand he thought was best, maybe not that important though, he might play an 8 the same way. I think his bet sizing on the turn is important, why is he betting so much? he only left you with a 1/3 psb for the river if you call so he's basically putting you to the decision right now and he knows you know that if you call here you will be comitted on the riv, not sure if he knows that you know he knows that though.

an easier way for him to get all your money in the pot would be to bet around 90 and then a 1/2 psb AI on the river. with the bet size he chose it seems he is maximising his FE on the turn. 1 more thing, when everyone limps and BB raises people sometimes get crazy bc they think your stealing and they might play more agressively postflop, esp if you have done it a few times.
Your image being agressive is also important here since he will probably be more willing to mix it up with you.

Soo I don't think this is such an easy fold but it really comes down to the feel you have at the table, is he capable of running a huge bluff like this?
If you're going to keep playing I think you should raise, it's only a min raise and I think he will realise you are commited to the pot on the river and probably just check it down but just calling gives him a chance to outdraw you for free. He's never folding a J though but I don't think he has it bc if he c/r bluffed flop and hit a pair on the turn he wouldn't play it like the nutz he would probably bet smaller or even check.