Theoretically, How Deep Before I Consider Folding This?

[Ness3]

[ QUOTE ]
The people saying fold are either a) being sarcastic b) being useless because they provide no reasons! I'm alright w/a) but b) just suxorz.

I call - if he's got all the deuces, good play.

[/ QUOTE ]

VILLAIN HAS AK!!!!

[OHFreak]

Alright so it was a).

But if he DID he WOULD hit an A on the riv.

[Three Sigma]

Clearly he turned up 22 or you wouldn't be posting. There are about 45 possible hands left with a king and one hand left with 22. You have to call up to about 45 times half the pot or $600.

[Gordon Scott]

Call and hit your Queen on the river.

[Roadstar]

Why should we be checking turn, against a passive player with the second nuts, I'm trying to build the pot and hope to be paid off by any pocket pair 33-JJ?!

As for the considerations, I'll try to quantify this a little:

bluff freq - I say probably 5%

Combos - behind 1 combo, split with 15 combos (KQ, KJ-K9 lets say).

So 5% pick off bluff, 6% against 22, 89% chop chop

So EV = 0.05(200)[bluff], 0.89(0) [chop chop], 0.06(-100)[lose]

EV = +4 so essentially breakeven or slightly negative after rake?

I guess a bigger allin would skew the probabilities a bit more to 22?

Thoughts welcome! Thx

[ QUOTE ]
a few considerations....

opponent's bluff frequency
your odds of hitting your one-outer (if you are in fact behind)
actual pot odds (assume you are splitting)

probably somewhat results oriented but you're usually better checking the turn here - get value from hands you beat when you bet the river.

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[asherpuppy]

I don't think you ever could fold this. If you think it's a chop, you would obviously call for your 50% equity on the existing pot. So the only question is comparing how often you are ahead to how often you are behind. People at this level tend to make ridiculous moves, I think it's much more likely you are ahead than behind after he pushes. He's more likely to raise a smaller amount with 22, more likely to try something really stupid like pushing with a weaker hand.

[Roadstar]

O RLY? I know where the BBV forum is if I were looking to post for sympathy. And how did you get **45** combos with a king? Please do share.

[ QUOTE ]
Clearly he turned up 22 or you wouldn't be posting. There are about 45 possible hands left with a king and one hand left with 22. You have to call up to about 45 times half the pot or $600.

[/ QUOTE ]

[MikeyPatriot]

D00ds, did you guys miss this hand in BBV???

Seriously, though, this is such a fast call. You'd have to be so deep that calling this would [censored] up your bankroll pretty bad.

You should be checking or check/calling the turn here because only the very worst idiots are calling without a K or 22 here. This will either get your river value bet called more often or will allow you to induce a bluff.

[Roadstar]

Thanks for the responses - basically we're never folding is the msg! And no this wasn't a bad beat. I thought about it for like 3 seconds and called expecting to chop.

Villain shows 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] MHIG and says "I just didn't think you had it this time..." and leaves

I was shocked to see villain pull a move like this on such an obvious board...

[Roadstar]

Spot on.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you ever could fold this. If you think it's a chop, you would obviously call for your 50% equity on the existing pot. So the only question is comparing how often you are ahead to how often you are behind. People at this level tend to make ridiculous moves, I think it's much more likely you are ahead than behind after he pushes. He's more likely to raise a smaller amount with 22, more likely to try something really stupid like pushing with a weaker hand.

[/ QUOTE ]