Lost on the Bubble (Yet Again)

[Uppercut]

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I think this is a fold as shorty is to your right

On edit... how short is shorty

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As I already mentioned, shorty has 1,800.

[mornelth]

Jam that format somehow into SNGPT and calculate your calling range (assume villain puts you all-in).

$5 says A9o is NOT in the +$EV calling range almost regardless of villain's opening range... +cEV - maybe, but +$EV - not....

[d240t]

If villain has as wide of a raising range as you suggest, then calling is definitely +cEV. Whether it is +$EV or not, I'm still not sure. My gut says no, but my brain is questioning due to a few reasons.

1) You are not guaranteed to even get the other shortstack all in on the next hand and going to showdown. Without that, you are in a fold-fest hoping to squeeze into the money because...

2) You will have to open push anything decent on the next hand if the Shorty does not open push, but the UTG bigstack will be the bb and should call with a wide range of hands. (If he's been loose at raising, he'll probably be loose calling your small all-in raise on the next hand)...

So, without doing any calculations it seems that, if you think open pushing with a wide range of your hands on the next hand is +$EV (say 22+, A2+, K2+, Q2s+, Q9, T8+, 67s+,78+ or something like that), it seems unless the amount of $EV you gain with the possibility of the shortstack open pushing the next hand and losing is significant, then you should call.

In other words, I am wondering if you should just go all in here with a decent hand with showdown value but no FE (a decent offsuit A), or wait till the next hand when you have a worse hand but a very small amount of FE (you'll also have one ante less in chips of course, small, but not negligible).

It seems like the possibility of the other shortstack open pushing the next hand needs to be high for you to fold this. Alternatively, you need to be folding a wide range of your hands on the next hand and be hoping to just squeeze into the money.

[phrosty]

Did everyone miss the fact that he has an M of less than 2? Given your read, and assuming you're not playing to squeek into the money, I'm pushing. If the big stack had been playing patiently and raising with good values, yes I wait to be first in and push with any two.

[Uppercut]

One other point I hadn't mentioned before is that the short stack had folded about 30 straight hands preflop at this point. Thanks for all the responses. I ended up shoving my A9o and of course the big stack auto-called. (I knew that I had no fold equity, but I thought there was a good chance that I was ahead in this hand.) As someone mentioned, my M was less than 2 and I would've jumped to 3rd in chips had I won the all-in. I am trying to be more aggressive on the bubble, and I was only 400 chips ahead of the short-stack, so I didn't think I could just wait him out.

PS Villian had KQo. Of course, he hit a King on the flop and I went BUSTO.

[d240t]

Does anyone have any counterpoints to my ramblings?

I've thought about this more and I still think its a good time to gamble. I'm pretty sure in the heat of things, I would not be folding this.

ICM calculations do not take into account all the things in my analysis. Is that a limitation of ICM? Am I overthinking it?

Did anyone do an ICM calculation? How about comparing it to the likely next hand if we fold? (I can't do these calcs at right now.)

[CybrPunk]

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Does anyone have any counterpoints to my ramblings?

I've thought about this more and I still think its a good time to gamble. I'm pretty sure in the heat of things, I would not be folding this.

ICM calculations do not take into account all the things in my analysis. Is that a limitation of ICM? Am I overthinking it?

Did anyone do an ICM calculation? How about comparing it to the likely next hand if we fold? (I can't do these calcs at right now.)

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Yes, actually I do have a counterpoint.

The big difference here is this is a multi-table SNG with only the top 5 getting paid versus a MTT where a lot more people get paid but the prizepool distribution is such that making it into the money shows little to no significant increase. In other words, in a MTT you barely make your buy-in back by sneaking into the money versus a SNG where the pay increases are a significant percentage of the prizepool. Barely making it into the money guarantees someone 8% of the prizepool. The increases from there are not very significant until you get to third place. 4th only stands to get 2% more than third. Third place adds another 7% locking up 17% of the prizepool total. ICM calculations are based on how much real money you stand to win or lose by making a play and, in this case, you stand to lose real money by calling and losing this hand. It's a much different analysis than in a MTT where you need to gamble on the bubble shooting for enough chips to go deep and make it to first. There's no going deeper here except making it into the money and, consequently, shooting for first from there on out.

In a SNG like this there is still a good chance of getting first place even with a smaller stack. ICM would consider a player with his chipstack as having a certain percentage of the prizepool in value but by calling and losing this hand he loses all of that real money. This would almost certainly cause any ICM calculation to show this as a -$EV play, especially with another short stack in the equation. That 8% increase just sneaking into the money is enough to justify a fold here. This is not like a MTT where the player who barely survives the bubble gets 0.095% of the prizepool.

This is where the idea of playing only for first does not apply 100%. In a MTT you always shoot for first because of the high variance involved inherently for MTT players. The ITM bubble in a MTT is much different than in a SNG because of the actual value of the chipstacks at this point in the tournament. SNG variance is not quite as high as in MTTs and the smaller cash prizes are still a significant portion of the prizepool as opposed to in a MTT where a player who sneaks into the money doesn't stand to profit much.

I'm still of the opinion that playing for first is the right way to play in all situations, but that doesn't necessarily mean putting your chips in the pot in a -$EV spot such as this one. If you're really playing to win I think this is a fold.

[AceLuby]

Squeezing in the $ here is ok because this isn't a large field MTT. It's a 3 table SNG. ROI for 1st is 900% and ROI for 5th is 100%. That isn't that much of a difference as compared to, say, a 180 man where ROI for 1st is 5000% and squeezing into the $ is 100% ROI. This is one reason why SNG's are so profitable for the tighty mc tight tight because squeezing into the $ is not so bad.

[TyFuji]

I agree that squeezing into the money isn't bad, but in this kind of tournament you can come back and get into a dominating chip position much faster than in a large MTT. I think it really depends on how likely you think UTG is to be stealing. You have him committed, and it'll be hard for anyone behind you to call, so I think that a push is +$EV here.

[CybrPunk]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that squeezing into the money isn't bad, but in this kind of tournament you can come back and get into a dominating chip position much faster than in a large MTT. I think it really depends on how likely you think UTG is to be stealing. You have him committed, and it'll be hard for anyone behind you to call, so I think that a push is +$EV here.

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A push here is +cEV but definitely -$EV. There's no way in the world this could be a +$EV push unless the bigstack in this hand is opening with a very wide range.

Just for fun I input this hand into SNGPT taking educated guesses as to what the remaining chipstacks were here. I also treated the original raiser as having pushed because there's zero chance he folds for 400 more chips. Versus a somewhat loose range of [22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs] it's a neutral $EV call, any tighter of a range and it's -$EV and with a wider range it's only slightly +$EV. You'd have to be sure the original raiser is opening very light here for this to be a good spot to get your chips in. It's marginal at best and with the short stack coming up on blinds before you I think this becomes an even easier fold.