25NL 6max: Set + OESD facing push

[ticks]

First you say...
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I doubt it's a two pair, villain seems too tight to be raising UTG with hands like 87s, etc.

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Then...
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On the other hand, he seemed pretty solid. Do you think i's likely that he'll push on a 4-straight turn without having the upper end straight?

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So you dont think he will raise with a connector UTG.
Fair enough.
That leaves ONE hand that you think he has: 99.
You cant really be that sure in this spot.
You only have 50 hands on him.
And villain sure took a strange line on the flop with his vulnerable overpair.
I think 88/66/55 is more likely.
Turn hits, suddenly the board is scary and villain hits the panic button.

[kazana]

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What likely hands are you behind: 99 (with 98/T9 a possibility). Edit: and 88 of course.
What hands are you ahead of: 55/66 are both very likely,
so is TT+.

In other words:
There are more hands you are ahead of than you are behind.
Throw in the redraw the times you are behind and this is an easy call.

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Okay, good to know.
I had him pinned on 99, but I was actually afraid of 88, too. I did call, hoping that I was wrong.

Without being results oriented: Turned out he did have 99, another 8 came to my rescue. I just had this feeling that it might've been a bad call that I couldn't shrug off, especially with 99 & 88 being in the range I thought of (together with the other set possibilities).

Thanks for the analysis, I just didn't think I'd be able to look at it objectively.

[ticks]

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Without being results oriented: Turned out he did have 99, another 8 came to my rescue. I just had this feeling that it might've been a bad call that I couldn't shrug off, especially with 99 & 88 being in the range I thought of (together with the other set possibilities).

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Except for the flop bet you played it fine.
LOL at villains weak line with an overpair.

[kazana]

Well, actually he was pushing with the made straight (also, T9 straight beating him is very unlikely). Might not have been the worst line to try to drag a 2-pair, set, or lower straight in while he's still ahead.

[ticks]

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Well, actually he was pushing with the made straight (also, T9 straight beating him is very unlikely). Might not have been the worst line to try to drag a 2-pair, set, or lower straight in while he's still ahead.

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I was talking about his flop play,
where he has a vulnerable hand which is likely to be ahead.
Basically any card in the deck (except 7) will be trouble for him on the turn.

[kazana]

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I was talking about his flop play,
where he has a vulnerable hand which is likely to be ahead.

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Oh, yeah. Maybe I got him off track with that pansy bet of mine. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[tufat23]

i would definitely assume villain turned a straight. personally i would have check called a PSB there since the 7 could be a scare card for him and unless the board pairs we don't really like the spot.

[bhudson]

I think the raise is the best thing that could have happened to you here, giving you the option of a fold. I agree with Jigsaws. If you bet the flop properly here you probably will be able to make that decision on the turn.