My first post

[74o_Clownsuit]

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the arrival of the jack meant that there were very few aces I was beating, and a fold should have been in order.

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Not really, he would have raised AJ, AT and probably A9 given that he has a 24% pfr.

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Ah, very good point. Thanks. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Paul Thomson]

First off, welcome to the forum.

Second, Sensei is a great player and one of my favorite posters. In fact, he was my favorite poster when starting at SSNL. With that disclaimer in mind, I'm not sure that I agree with his analysis.

Sensei says, "raise the turn and fold to a 3-bet". I think this would make sense if we could raise a reasonable amount and then be able to get away from the hand. But I don't think this works given the stack sizes.

Doing a little hand reading, this is how I see the action on the turn: The villian bet a scare card which makes it less likely that it hit him hard. Second, the size of his bet suggests either one of two hands: a draw that is trying to get a good price to see the river. Or, the common weak made hand oop with the standard line of calling the flop and leading the turn. Now given this hand reading, Sensei's line of raising the turn seems to make the most sense, but then how much to raise?

Now most bluffs and weak made hands will fold to any raise. However, with a flush draws and possible straights draws, we should raise an amount that doesn't give the opponent the odds to draw. We should at least raise to $35 in order to not give him 3-1 to draw to the river. However, if we raise this amount, then we'll only have to call $20 if he 3-bet's us all-in. Therefore, we'll be getting better than 5-1 on our money and it might be a tough laydown given that the opponent plays "very loose and very aggressive".

Since your opponent plays an aggressive style, I'd probably just call the turn and reevaluate on the river. His big river-bet is either a bluff or value bet. The straight draw got there and I'd respect the bet and fold.