Shortstack hand from the Party Sunday Million

[r987r]

im pushing a lot more then this (any broadway)

[rwperu34]

You are getting called by the BB here 100% of the time, right?

I tend to push here and take my chances.

Just did some math. You've got about a 52% chance of not being up against AA-JJ, AJ+, KJ+. Against that range, you've got 30% equity.

If your opponents call range is any pair, AT+, KJ+ you will take the blinds 33% of the time and have 38% equity when called.

In the first scenario, a push is roughly break even. In the second, it will show a big profit. Add in the fact that the BB is calling with much less than QJs, and I like a push from a math standpoint.

[JCool]

M of 4, in the BB next hand. This is a standard push.

[Superfluous Man]

[ QUOTE ]
uh... PUSH PUSH PUSH PUSH PUSH?

[/ QUOTE ]

[A_PLUS]

I think this push is +CEV (it would take miraculous ranges for it not to be).

Even if it wasn't, I would still push. Basically pushing 6xBB now >>>> pushing 4.25xBB later

[ QUOTE ]
i'm typically way too push-happy

but i push

[/ QUOTE ]

[Imrahil]

You're going to lose so much by going through the blinds that you have to push right now.

[Riorin]

So basically when you get ITM almost nobody has M higher than 10, that kind a suks for such a big tourney?

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
So basically when you get ITM almost nobody has M higher than 10, that kind a suks for such a big tourney?

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO, there is a huge difference between an M of 4 and an M of 6 or 7 as far as these type of desperation pushes

[sheetsworld]

well as usual this is completely dependent on calling assumptions, but I think semi-fair is the assumption that utg+1 folds 95% of the time, utg+1 94%, and so on, which, wow, puts the chances u get called at 1-(.95*.94*.93 etc..)= almost exactly 50%.....

so assuming that ur avarage gain/loss is (96000*6+32463+69010)/8= 84684...and for the moment assuming chip ev is somewhat the same as $ ev...

the breakeven point usuing

a=gain from fold equity
b=gain from getting called and winning
c=loss from getting called and losing
d=% of calls
x=% winning chances




0=(1-d)a+dbx-dc(1-x)
0=a-da+dbx-dc+dcx
dcx+dbx=dc+da-a
x(db+dc)=dc+da-a
x=(dc+da-a)/(db+dc)


x=41.85%....so if qjss is going to be 41.85% against the top 8% of hands or so, then you have a small push including the fact that u will be going through the blinds next and future ev gets crushed somewhat.

so asusming the 8% (1328*.08) or 106 hands include 77+,ak,aq,aj,atss, you have about 37% which makes it a fold.

OBVIOUSLY , AS I SAID, THIS IS 100% ROUGH AND ASSUMPTION BASED BUT its a starting point to understand how brutal it is to be utg having to get through 8 people.

I think that these assumptions are close though, and the question will depend on how much u really lose by going through the blinds...


sheets

ps sorry for typos...on way out the door.