Stealing the blinds. How often to do it, and what does it pay? (Stats)

[Smurph64]

Maybe I misread the topic, but why is it that a semi bluff against a blind is the same thing as a steal? I mean forget what poker tracker tracks. Those aren't steals necessarily.

I was in a game, a tight game and was watching one opponent who was 15VPIP 10PFR A3.5 killing the table. Everyone was
afraid of him.

I had a book on him and he had a book on me. I knew he was good, everyone knew he was good. He was that good. Well I sat down and he was 5 seats away from me on a ten seater.

Two orbits around the table everything is fine. We both stay away from each other I take a few he takes a few. Table is playing happy tight fold around text book poker. 3rd orbit in bb he raises across the pond, it folds around as it usually did when he raised, I had nothing I fold. SB next hand he raises fold around I fold, bb folds. Next eight hands from him he folds.

I am in BB again and he raises from across the table. Same result I fold, SB he raises again, same result I fold he wins again. Next eight hands from him he folds.

BB again and sure enough he raises first one in from across the table. It folds around this weak ass table and I have garbage again. I don't fold, I cap it preflop and cap the flop before he folds the turn. SB he raises again and we go at it again. I actually had a hand this time and he bailed early.

Bottom line he was playing the table like a fiddle and it took me 3 times to figure it out.

Afterwards I found out that he watched me make weak blind defensive plays for a number of hands in a row by calling the aggressor and folding to the bet regardless of what the flop hit. He knew I was defending my hands if I hit but giving up if I missed. With him I didn't even bother defending with my crap.

This guy had no problem stealing with this moves even in a faraway position. His cards were irrelevant, he just said go and took the pot because he knew the table was weak against him.

I have a gaming theory move I make all the time if the table is open to suggestion. Its card dependant but its not a good card necessarily, its the eight of spades.

When I get that card as one of my hole cards I run a checklist and if the conditions are right I make a steal move. UTG, CO, SB it doesn't matter.

Why do steals work then all the time and positional semi-bluffs continue to work when people know they are happening to them.

"I knew you were bluffing but I had nothing to call you out with."

How many times have you heard that? Heck I have said it.

They work because people think the blinds are not worth playing for. The fact is that some rocks can make a living playing poker by just taking down pots that no one else wants.

Now I am not proposing we all go out and maniacally raise from all over the place to try and 'steal the blinds'. But what I am saying is that if you open your eyes and watch a table really closely you can see many opportunities to steal more than the normal semi-bluff positional steal we all know and love.

How many times have you seen a guy raise from somewhere on the table that gets folded around and then he shows with disgust that he had KK? If he were thinking clearly about it instead of being pissed about missing a value golden opportunity disappear he would realize that conditions were so ripe that his raise could have been a steal attempt.

What conditions existed in the game that made his raise in that position at that time make people fold? Some people will say its because the table went card dead, but I don't buy it.

When I raise with AA and get called down with 3 people who are on gut shots and runner runner draws that hit, I don't believe in card dead tables as a viable reason why people fold around the table.

Start looking at a session and see how many times someone raised their hand and everyone folded around. Figure out what conditions existed to have that happen. Then use that information and try a steal when the conditions come again.

Some tables for example go dead immediately after a huge pot is won. Other tables go dead if someone raises three times in a row. I have observed some tables going dead immediately after AA wins.

Sometimes when I sit at a table, I see dead people and dead people are easy to steal against.

Multi tablers are usually dead people.

Try sitting down at a table with 9 players and 5 of them are also at other tables concurrently. Watch their play. I can guarantee 1 or two of them will fold from the blind to any raise not from the CO or Button, unless they have a very good hand. 40% of the multi tablers do this and they think nothing of it. Its the cost of doing business.

Internet poker is different than live poker now because of multi table players and this is one of the differences I have noticed. I will continue to try and exploit to improve my bottom line by making steal attempts against these opponents whenever I get the chance.

[Aaron W.]

Smurph -

You make long posts, but as I continue to read them I get the sense that you are either completely overthinking simple situations or you post much more more than you actually think.

You'll have to forgive my skepticism, but your stories and explanations don't really feel as if they add up quite right.

[Bilgefisher]

Bozlax, ya caught me there, good point. I also kinda combined semi-bluff's and blind stealing into one topic. Probably not the intent of the OP. Good discussions here...definately worth rereading down the road. Sign of a good post.

[Smurph64]

I do overthink situations compared to most players. I don't fault myself for it either. Posting this stuff is a learning curve for me here and I know I am missing the point of explanation that others are able to achieve in a more quick and concrete manner.

When I see questions such as this one I look at it seriously and see some concepts that are being bantered about carelessly. I don't believe in stock answers and sometimes it takes me a mother mountain of words to get to the point and not ramble in various alternate directions.

Obviously, this is one such case here. If I were to nutshell here I would be doing myself a disservice because I need to learn to think and express my thoughts more efficiently according to how I play.

The bottom line is I don't play poker by the book. By posting non stock rambling answers when these questions arise I am doing two things.

I am helping myself come to terms to what people are trying to say to do and at the same time I am trying to explain why I think differently.

That is a difficult task to perform. Especially for me. I respect that people won't have the time or the inclination to pay attention to what I say at some point if they haven't already reached that conclusion.

The fact is my thoughts and explanations that I write about don't add up because they are a lot more detailed than I can express and maybe with help from yourself and others like you I can reach a concensus in my mind to maintain a focus that is essential for prime poker play.

[Scary_Tiger]

Smurph, I frequently find Aaron's posts too wordy and overthought. These last two are crazy. Most multitablers don't suck at poker. 40% being nits is way high, at least at 2/4+. Even when I 12-table my fold BB to steal is under 40%.

PS I wouldn't advise bluffspewing into an UTG raise that often.

[Smurph64]

There are a ton of multi tablers out there that have no clue what they are doing. They are pretty easy to spot. At my level its 40% that don't defend unless the raise comes from CO or Button. I expect it to drop at higher levels but the craze of mting is not going away. I have 4 guys who I tag all the time with steals.

If I am at a table with 5 multi tablers its a joy.

[V4P]

[ QUOTE ]
Smurph -

You make long posts, but as I continue to read them I get the sense that you are either completely overthinking simple situations or you post much more more than you actually think.

[/ QUOTE ]