At what odds would you bet Alan Cunningham to win WSOP ME FT?

[Eleusis]

I voted 4 but seriously I wouldn't bet it without more like 6-1.

Guess I'm just not much of a sports gambler.

[zaxx19]

Take 3.5:1 or better....just my opinion/.

[pete fabrizio]

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I dunno dude, betting on a dude who has publicly stated he doesn't want to win, who apparently has blatant tells, and probably little experience at headsup doesn't seem wise.

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First, I think Gold was just BSing to maximize publicity.

Second, my reasoning was that, although Cunningham is clearly a better player than Gold (and if it got heads up with a chip ratio similar to what they have now, it might be even or better), I'm not sure Cunningham will have a much bigger edge against the rest of the table than Gold.

After all, Gold has the best possible table image: Lucky-ass LAGtard. In my experience, people adjust very poorly to this kind of player when they have a lot of chips, trying to make ill-advised moves and "fight fire with fire," etc, so a LAG strategy (which is already well-suited to tournament play) can become dominating. If Gold gets even a few good cards in key spots, he may run away with this thing.

On the other hand, Cunningham has the image of "best player at the table," and everyone will at least attempt to play their best poker when involved in pots with him. He also has a very solid image, which means he will probably pick up more than his fair share of small pots -- but in a fairly deep-stacked tournament, this may not accumulate chips as well as getting all your good cards paid off.

The biggest disadvantage to my side of the Gold bet is that I'm sure Cunningham will play against him very well, and there's a decent chance that Gold's LAG style may lead to AC trapping him for all or most of his chips at some point. But I figured Gold's chip lead going in, and what I see as a very good chance that he will be able to continue building his stack as people try to pick him off, more than make up for this. May I be proven wrong.

[pocketjesuits]

I got a bit of Allan Cunningham at 3.55, aka +255, aka 2.55:1

Going by chip-stacks, he should be at 4.95, but I think his skill, experience, the stack-sizes, and weakness of the field improves his chances of winning more than 50% over what his chip-stack would dictate.

And he is definitely the favourite at this point - taking Gold in a last longer at this point is insane. With them both having big stacks, skill and experience is huge here.

Here are his final table finishes since 2000:
$1000 NLHE - 1st
$1000 NLHE - 1st
$3000 NLHE - 1st
$10000 NLHE - 4th
$3000 NLHE - 1st
$1500 NLHE - 1st
$1000 NLHE - 1st
$2000 NLHE - 9th
$2000 NLHE - 6th
$2000 NLHE - 4th
$10000 NLHE - 8th
$3000 NLHE - 3rd
$10000 NLHE - 7th
$2500 NLHE - 2nd
$2500 NLHE - 7th
$5000 NLHE - 1st
$2500 NLHE - 2nd
$1000 NLHE - 1st
$1500 PLHE - 5th
$10000 NLHE - 4th
$5000 NLHE - 2nd
$5000 NLHE - 7th

8/22 wins, and 6 of his last 7.


My other bets were:
Doug Kim @ 12.98
Michael Binger @ 44.44
Dan Nassif @ 44.44
Cunningham over Gold @ 2.02
- I had taken Gold over Cunningham a couple days ago when he had way more chips. Now I've hedged against that and will lose nothing if Gold lasts longer yet gain if Cunningham lasts longer)

Friberg @ 9.16
- mainly to hedge against my American and field bets of a couple days ago)




My bets from the other day didn't go so well unfortunately (O'Donnell KK v. AA was tough). If the following players win, these will be my net results:

Gold: -$7000
Cunningham: +$2500
Fridberg: -$2000
Kim: $6,000
Binger: +$50,000
Nassif: +$800
Anyone else: -$1700

Obviously I am cheering heavily against Gold - not that I wouldn't have been anyways.

[dlk9s]

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On the other hand, Cunningham has the image of "best player at the table," and everyone will at least attempt to play their best poker when involved in pots with him. He also has a very solid image, which means he will probably pick up more than his fair share of small pots -- but in a fairly deep-stacked tournament, this may not accumulate chips as well as getting all your good cards paid off.

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One reason Cunningham is so awesome is that he actually DOES get paid off on his good hands.