Final table, KK UTG raises and is re-raised allin ...

[FredBoots]

As you can imagine, I took a bad beat. I call and he has 22 and flops a set. But why I posted this is because this is the second time I've destroyed my chip stack near the money when I get into a big pot with another big stack.

I'm currently running an independent chip model to see what my EV is of calling vs folding (I'll post the results when it's done). But in the meantime, I'm starting to think that folding is the correct play, no matter what he has. If one of the short stacks (ie, <24K) goes allin, I'm calling, because if I lose I'll still have enough chips to do something. He was the only person I didn't want to get involved with.

[seke2]

Unless you are down to 2 or 3 people, I don't think you can get KK to be a $EV fold here either. I did once run into a spot where I was in the final 3 of a MTT and called a push with QQ and later calculated to it to be just barely -$EV. But let me tell you what that required.

1) Big stack larger than me
2) I have a pretty deep stack and a perceived skill advantage
3) Microstack in the other spot, weak player

And even then, it was just BARELY -$EV in a very similar spot. If you find the link to my 180 trip reports, its the bustout hand of the one where I finished 3rd.

So, basically, with you having more players left, a better hand, and you being the CL, there is NO way this is -$EV.

[Art Vandelay]

Where's the bad beat police when you need them?

[JuntMonkey]

No, it's a call. The 80% of the time KK holds up, you have an excellent chance of winning it all. That more than makes up for the 20% chance that you're out, and you're not even completely out anyway.

Your stack is nowhere near big enough to be worrying about this either - it's only 10xBB, and if a "shortie" with 25K doubles up (somewhat likely), lo and behold, we have a new chip leader.

[seke2]

Link to my post where you can see just how rarely you will find a spot where folding a premium pair is correct, and what was actually required for something to be just barely -$EV.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rue#Post5376340

See hand 322, bustout with QQ.

[RichC.]

I dont fold KK unless its a satellite and all i need to do is hang on at the bubble. This is an instacall, no thinking involved.

[0evg0]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm currently running an independent chip model to see what my EV is of calling vs folding (I'll post the results when it's done).

[/ QUOTE ]



DURRRRRRRRR

[jason75]

If you think there's a way you can fold this, you're not going to see many more final tables. . . . .

I don't really understand your "need" to find out how to fold this. The dude turned over 22 and got lucky. Deep down, in places people don't like to talk about at parties, You want this situation, you need this situation!

You want answers? You want the truth?

Fact is that you got exactly what you wanted except he sucked out. . . .

[Nez477]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm currently running an independent chip model to see what my EV is of calling vs folding (I'll post the results when it's done).

[/ QUOTE ]



DURRRRRRRRR

[/ QUOTE ]

NH man.

And Fred, I don't have any words to sum up how bad your post was on folding KK here. But you need to know that it was horrible, and you need to see why before you ever touch another poker chip. Seriously.

Brad

[betgo]

Is this a joke?

The only thing I can say is you raised 3.5xBB without regard to the stack sizes. Open push, miniraise, or limp.

Also, villain's play is a little strange, but he maybe thought he could get you to fold to the other big stack.