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#12
08-07-2006, 11:52 AM
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Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
I think you are wrong. Especially the whole 3 million chips not being worth 3 million part cause you just lost 5 million. If you want to make such assumptions we can include a million other factors, like the big stack being nervous cause he is a favourite to win, or the small stacks being nervous to bust and therefore playing worse?
The advantage of a big stack is no one can bust you, that's a pretty huge advantage in a tourney. 
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#13
08-07-2006, 11:54 AM
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Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] That has to be wrong. The chip leader can take at least as many chips from any player in the field as any other player in the field. It doesn't matter how that stacks as a proportion of his stack (i.e. he can't double up). He has more earning potential than any other player. [/ QUOTE ] Maybe you are right mathematically, I'm not sure if I'm confusing % chance to win with $EV. At least in a $EV sense a runaway chiplead is rather benefitting the short stacks. In a psychological sense, a runaway chiplead in my opinion isnt worth its full value. See this scenario: Player A: 8 Million Chips Rest of the Field: 5 Million Chips Case A: Player A doubles up against another player --> His extra chips dont help him there, he can only gain 5 Million from each player... Maybe his extra chips can help him make a marginally correct call he wouldnt have been able to make if he was in danger of busting out. Maybe they can cause him not to play his A game anymore, because he feels the pressure that he has to win... Case B: Player A loses allin against another player --> His extra chips benefit him there big. Every other player would be out, while he still has 3 Million chips left. However I think after such a big loss, few players can play their A games, especially in a tourney like the WSOP, so his 3 Million chips are not really worth 3 Million chips anymore. Thats why I believe a runaway chiplead isnt worth it's exact percentages, an average stack seems to be much better in a sense of achieving optimum performance. I could be flat out wrong though. [/ QUOTE ] But then there's Case C, where everyone is afraid to go up against you because you have the stack to bust them, and you bully them out of pot after pot. If the tournament truly were an all-in fest, where your stack essentially did a random walk, I defer to the theory gurus but I suspect your chance of winning would be exactly equal to the percentage of chips in play that you hold. A large chip lead will always be worth somewhat less, in dollar terms, than your percentage of the chips in play would indicate, because you can only win one prize. For example, you could have half the chips in play, but it's mathematically impossible for you to win half of the prize pool. By the same token, having 5% of the chips in play with 45 left wouldn't quite be worth 5% of the prize pool.
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#14
08-07-2006, 12:06 PM
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Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] or you can go "each way" and get 1/4 the price: [/ QUOTE ] Explain further please. [/ QUOTE ] Each way in this case if you think it'll make the top 4, that way you'll get 1/4 the odds. Using Gold as an example, and each way bet would pay 7/4.
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#18
08-07-2006, 01:02 PM
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Post deleted by Mat Sklansky
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#19
08-07-2006, 01:21 PM
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Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
i found these odds at bet365. are they any good?
Each-way 1/4 1-2-3 Jamie Gold +600 Bet Erik Friberg +800 Bet William Thorsson +900 Bet Rhett Butler +1000 Bet Allan Cunningham +1100 Bet Jeffrey Lisandro +1200 Bet Michael Binger +1200 Bet Siddharth Jain +1400 Bet James Routos +1400 Bet David Einhorn +1400 Bet Robert Betts +1400 Bet Kevin Aaronson +1400 Bet Ricki Nielsen +1400 Bet Dan Schmiech +1800 Bet Andrew Schreibman +1800 Bet Lee Kort +2000 Bet Humberto Brenes +2000 Bet Paul Wasicka +2000 Bet John Magill +2500 Bet Prahlad Friedman +2500 Bet Eric Lynch +3300 Bet Rob Roseman +4000 Bet Mark Garner +4000 Bet Mitch Schock +4000 Bet Kevin O'Donnell +4000 Bet Mikael Thuritz +4000 Bet Paul Raeburn +4000 Bet Eric Molina +4000 Bet Weikai Chang +4000 Bet Richard Lee +5000 Bet Doug Kim +5000 Bet Marc Friedmann +5000 Bet Others On Request
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#20
08-07-2006, 01:34 PM
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Re: WSOP Day 6 Main Event Thread
[ QUOTE ]
Who was the crazy player in Seat 9 of Rizen's table that he talks about in his podcast? He said he was drinking Jack & Cokes all day and making some crazy plays. [/ QUOTE ] I think that would be Eric Molina, the kid who threw his all in button at the chip leader.
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