Trying to isolate with KJ against fish goes wrong

[johnnytt]

I dont know if I want to try and iso with KJo from MP1 either but if I am going to play KJo here I want to raise and hope to fold some hands like KQo and AJo mabye making are hand a little better. I think limping here with an easily dominated hand is not a great idea.

I think the real decision in this hand is probably on the turn. I am pretty weak and probably just check and call turn. As it was checked behind on the turn I think river bet is fine.

[Bodizapha]

Preflop - Everything looks good.

Flop - I would bet here. If your read on CO is correct then we should be ahead here. If he raises then just call.

Turn - If raised by CO on flop then I would c/c here, if he just called you on flop then I like a bet here.

River - Same as above.

[kerowo]

[ QUOTE ]
To make a turn bet, Hero would have to believe that he is ahead in this hand a good percentage of the time. Betting when behind would not be good and if he gets raised it would be even worse. We would have, at most, about a 30% chance to improve.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you can get villain to fold here to the potential flush 1 time in 9 you are making money betting this turn. If you get raised you are getting 11:1 to call to hit your flush, trips, or two pair. Against a semi-loose aggro villain I wouldn't be surprised to be ahead here most of the time and I certainly think we are still drawing live enough to warrent taking a shot. If we get raised c/c the river ui and get a better read on this guy.

[Aaron W.]

Preflop is fine. Limping is also fine if the table is passive behind you. You don't mind players limping in with weaker hands like KT or J9.

Flop is good. I'm not donking into the PFR in this spot. He's almost always going to c-bet, and you've got the best hand here a bunch of the time, but he won't be able to release his dominated overcards.

Bet the turn. I'm not worried about KQ or AQ here. I also don't expect him to bet the turn unless he has you beat. Bet out and watch him call with AK. If he folds AK, that's fine, too. You've got a good sized pot that you don't mind taking down right now (folding means turning down good odds -- getting 9:1 on a 7:1 call). Also, if he calls with AK, that's okay because you're getting value for your hand.

[Ricks]

[ QUOTE ]
fold this PF unless you have reads on the further end of the table KJo in EP is pretty marginal =[

[/ QUOTE ]

You bring up a good point. Before taking any action pre-flop, you should be aware of the opponents who are most likely to be in the hand with you. Those opponents are usually the blinds, the BB being the most likely. I don't think that I would try to isolate here with KJo if I didn't think that the BB was tight enough to fold. Also, if I thought that anyone would cc, I would be less inclined to isolate with KJo from MP1.

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think that I would try to isolate here with KJo if I didn't think that the BB was tight enough to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the BB always defends then your raise is still good!

[Ricks]

Xhad,

I had stoved this before my post because I was wondering about the point you are now making. I put the fish on a range of hands playing from UTG+1 at about 25%. I have BB defending with about 21% of his hands. If you think we should broaden or narrow these ranges, please let me know.


equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 34.3549 % 32.64% 01.72% { 55+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 29.2377 % 27.35% 01.89% { KhJd }
Hand 3: 36.4074 % 34.64% 01.77% { 22+, A5s+, K8s+, Q8s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+ }

KJo is a hand in need of help here vs a fish and BB.

I also stoved UTG+1 and Hero HU.


equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 52.8126 % 50.46% 02.35% { 55+, A2s+, K6s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A7o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 47.1874 % 44.83% 02.35% { KhJd }

Hero's hand still suffers but not by much. I went on to increase the range of UTG+1 to 35%.


equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 49.5015 % 47.55% 01.95% { 55+, A2s+, K3s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A4o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 2: 50.4985 % 48.55% 01.95% { KhJd }


To me it would seem that we do not want the BB in there. If BB folds pf, we gain equity from the dead money and we have the fish all to ourselves. If the BB defends, we have just put in two bets pf with the least amount of equity and we can not expect the BB to play like the fish.

[Ricks]

kerowo,

[ QUOTE ]
If you can get villain to fold here to the potential flush 1 time in 9 you are making money betting this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain has a better hand than JJ, I do not think a SLAG will fold nearly often enough.

[ QUOTE ]
If you get raised you are getting 11:1 to call to hit your flush, trips, or two pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we are behind to kings, two pair will not help and even though we still have a lot of outs, we just put in two BBs with about 30% equity.

[ QUOTE ]
Against a semi-loose aggro villain I wouldn't be surprised to be ahead here most of the time and I certainly think we are still drawing live enough to warrent taking a shot. If we get raised c/c the river ui and get a better read on this guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was my original point. How often we think we are ahead is what should determine whether we make the turn bet or not.

[TarHeel100]

CO is a schizo......I can't figure out what the hell he had that he would 3-bet preflop and flop, then check the turn and fold the river?

At any rate, you seem to be in kind of early position for an isolation play. I hope you had very passive players sitting behind you. Other than that, I think the hand is fine.

[Xhad]

Ricks: If you're going to assume the SB is that tight, you have to take into account the fact that when he does fold (which he will the vast majority of the time), we're playing a heads-up pot with position with 1.5 SB worth of dead money in the pot, a huge amount considering we only contributed 2SB to begin with. Plus it's not unthinkable that we might win UI on the flop or turn, plus we're going to make more when our hand is good than we're going to lose when it's not (because whether BB plays or not we're in position and will presumably be playing well after the flop).

EDIT: I still don't understand why people want to bet the turn so bad though. Villain is folding AJ or better approximately never, and if our hand is good he probably knows he's in trouble and has like 2-3 outs (except when he has the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] as I noted above). I really, really, hate it if we feel we have to show down even if he does raise.