Not scared of Monsters. - Page 2

Losing all · #11 07-31-2006, 06:05 AM

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Has anyone factored in the EV of hitting the bad beat jackpot on these tables? (Note: I suck at math) I'm thinking the extra 50 cents hurts a lot less than people are making it out to be.

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Sure, if you only play M tables after the fools have built it to 300K+ (or whatever) you've got an edge. Good luck cashing in on that long run though.

PokerStorm · #12 07-31-2006, 06:30 AM

What a load of crap - taking account of the of EV of hitting the bad bead jackpot. Who care if it's plus EV, when it's a pure lottery that you are extremely unlikely to win. If someone said, I'll let you use $1K (of your 5K bankroll) to buy $2K worth of tickets for a gazillion to 1 shot in a huge lottery would you take it as you are getting great EV?

MannyIsGod · #13 07-31-2006, 06:33 AM

The BBJ may be +EV when it reaches a certain level at LIMIT tables, but I doubt the same applies for NL tables.

RikaKazak · #14 07-31-2006, 06:41 AM

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The BBJ may be +EV when it reaches a certain level at LIMIT tables, but I doubt the same applies for NL tables.

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Well...there is still a "level" for NL 6 max games...it's just CRAZY HIGHER!!!!!!!!! Probably like 4-5 times higher.

So for NL 600 6 max probably have to be over 1 million to be nuetral/+EV

Directrix · #15 08-01-2006, 04:14 PM

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Well...there is still a "level" for NL 6 max games...it's just CRAZY HIGHER!!!!!!!!! Probably like 4-5 times higher.

So for NL 600 6 max probably have to be over 1 million to be nuetral/+EV

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Why would it be higher for NL? Serious question, because I don't know how to do the math, and I figured the bigger pots in NL would make up for it. If we pretend for a second that I'm a good player against a table of fish, that means I'm winning bigger pots more than I'm taking down smaller ones.

On the other hand at a fixed limit table you're consistently winning significantly smaller pots in comparison to the blinds/rake. How does that not hurt more?

Mogobu The Fool · #16 08-01-2006, 05:18 PM

At the lower bad beat limit stakes, you will see a jackpot at your table roughly every 100k raked hands. It takes roughly one million raked hands, on average, to hit the jackpot.

Of course, there's no guarantee you'll hit one JP every one million hands. The variance on a one-in-a-million event is enormous; playing three million and never hitting is not really that unlikely.

Because you are at the whim of variance, with virtually no chance of playing enough hands to even approach the "long run," most analysts prefer to treat this JP drop as a straight cost when considering JP tables.

When there are fewer players involved, the likelihood of hitting drops - the bad beat requires two very unusual hands at the same time, so the more players, the more likely it is to happen. Short handed (6-max) games have fewer players hit the flop. Likewise, NL games tend to have fewer players hit the flop. In addition, because NL players can scale bets, they can prevent their opponents from getting proper odds to draw to their potential jackpot hands. Mind you, this is smart play in poker, but it makes the jackpot less likely to happen.