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#11
07-29-2006, 06:00 PM
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Re: OESD on Turn
[ QUOTE ]
At the time I was only concerned with the possibility that he had AK. If that possibility was high then my call was a poor choice. [/ QUOTE ] Don't forget AQ, which picks up a gutshot on the turn. But, if he is holding one of these hands, why is calling the turn a poor choice? You don't have enough equity to raise for value against only 2 opponents, and thinking that a c/r will get both of them to fold is just cracker-barrel. 
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#12
07-29-2006, 06:28 PM
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Re: OESD on Turn
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] It might also be AJ. It might also be overcards that decided to stab at the turn w/ nothing. What do you think is the proper action in each of these cases? How likely do you think each is? [/ QUOTE ] Yes. That would be very possible. At the time I was only concerned with the possibility that he had AK. If that possibility was high then my call was a poor choice. I knew that his pf raising range included at least 100 hands, 16 of which are AK. I also believed it was unlikely that he would check AK on that flop. If he has a set, that would be fine because a Q or a 7 will not fill him up. At the time I thought this was an easy call. [/ QUOTE ] OK, if that's right, what do you think will earn you the most bets on the turn, and why? [/ QUOTE ] I assume you mean the river? I think that going for the c/r is is correct. The board disguises my str8 fairly well and since UTG+2 is an aggressive player, who fired on the turn, he will fire again. MP1 may very well call that bet and I get to c/r them both. I think that it is most likely that UTG+2 will bet, MP1 folds, I raise, he calls. Most likely I win 2BB. If I lead the river UTG+2 will probably fold with just OCs, call with a pair, maybe raise with a set but I am sure he will wake up to see that there is a str8 on the board, so I don't consider this likely. MP1 may or may not call if UTG+2 folds or calls but will most likely fold to a raise. I think it is most likely that UTG+1 just calls and MP1 will not overcall or that UTG+1 folds and MP1 calls. Most likely I win 1BB. Worst case: I check, everyone else checks. I bet, everyone folds.
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#15
07-29-2006, 06:41 PM
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Re: OESD on Turn
This is a pretty easy bet, IMO. I think if he's got a set, he's definitely raising you. He didn't slowplay the flop with the intention of just calling bets on the big streets. He might call you with A high, but he won't bet it. You're better to c/r if he has AA or AJ, but I think I like gamb00ling on the set, hoping for a third bet out of him.
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#16
07-29-2006, 06:45 PM
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Re: OESD on Turn
[ QUOTE ]
This is a pretty easy bet, IMO. I think if he's got a set, he's definitely raising you. He didn't slowplay the flop with the intention of just calling bets on the big streets. He might call you with A high, but he won't bet it. You're better to c/r if he has AA or AJ, but I think I like gamb00ling on the set, hoping for a third bet out of him. [/ QUOTE ] OK i'll bite. I don't get it. We're putting in money when behind in either case. It's not for value, our equity isn't that great. Esp if we bet and he raises, folding out other guy.
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#17
07-29-2006, 06:47 PM
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Re: OESD on Turn
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You don't have enough equity to raise for value against only 2 opponents, and thinking that a c/r will get both of them to fold is just cracker-barrel. [/ QUOTE ] You lost me here, Boz. [/ QUOTE ] Which part? You're putting in 33% of the money on a 20% draw, so you can't raise for value. You have 2 opponents that have each already put one bet in, so thinking that you're going to get both of them to fold is crazy ("cracker-barrel thinking"). I'll also add that raising for a free showdown is wrong, here, since you don't have anything to show.
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#18
07-29-2006, 06:49 PM
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Re: OESD on Turn
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] At the time I was only concerned with the possibility that he had AK. If that possibility was high then my call was a poor choice. [/ QUOTE ] Don't forget AQ, which picks up a gutshot on the turn. But, if he is holding one of these hands, why is calling the turn a poor choice? [/ QUOTE ] If villain had AK I would be drawing only to the ass end of a str8 of which I didn't have the right odds. If he has AQ and makes his gutshot, I don't make my str8.
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#19
07-29-2006, 06:58 PM
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Re: OESD on Turn
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] At the time I was only concerned with the possibility that he had AK. If that possibility was high then my call was a poor choice. [/ QUOTE ] Don't forget AQ, which picks up a gutshot on the turn. But, if he is holding one of these hands, why is calling the turn a poor choice? [/ QUOTE ] If villain had AK I would be drawing only to the ass end of a str8 of which I didn't have the right odds. If he has AQ and makes his gutshot, I don't make my str8. [/ QUOTE ] Wow, I'm doing a horrible job of hand reading this weekend.
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#20
07-29-2006, 06:59 PM
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Re: OESD on Turn
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] You don't have enough equity to raise for value against only 2 opponents, and thinking that a c/r will get both of them to fold is just cracker-barrel. [/ QUOTE ] You lost me here, Boz. [/ QUOTE ] Which part? You're putting in 33% of the money on a 20% draw, so you can't raise for value. You have 2 opponents that have each already put one bet in, so thinking that you're going to get both of them to fold is crazy ("cracker-barrel thinking"). I'll also add that raising for a free showdown is wrong, here, since you don't have anything to show. [/ QUOTE ] I am putting in one bet into a 5.25 bet pot on the turn. Nowhere in my original post or following posts did I ever suggest raising the turn. If I had, you would be correct.
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