Odds for online poker are not realistic.

[matt2411]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure you win them 90-95% of the time, just like the rest of us.

[/ QUOTE ]

last 2 months (100k hands) is a big enough sample size to disagree.

10k hands? pfft. 40k hands, eh, still small. 75k? good. 100k? large enough sample size to draw conclusions from.

[numeri]

Matt,

It's not the number of total hands. It's the number of those 90-95% favorites that matter. It still sounds like you're basing your comments on emotions and memories - not data.

[Edge34]

Thank you, come again!



EDIT: So you're on Ultimate...meh...

[ghostface]

[ QUOTE ]
sorry, i'm not realistic

[/ QUOTE ]

fyp

[p-i]

I was feeling like this all last week. I wish I could take my pot equity (even at a small discount) instead of having to play a bajillion hands.

[otis_nixon]

You've played 100,000 hands and you are still stuck at $25 NL? Well, ummm there's your problem right there sir.

And geez you aren't winning at 25 NL this whole time? I think it's either time to invest in a coach or move to Ghana where you can be a pro at $2 NL and sending spam e-mails with Idi the Nigerian.

[mlagoo]

matt2411,

ARE YOU SUGGESTING WHAT I THINK YOU'RE SUGGESTING?

[alphatmw]

matt, since you obviously have PT or something to track these results, show me definitive proof that over 100K hands, you're W@SD rate is 20-40% with 9-1 or better all the money going in on the flop and i'll pay you whatever your current bankroll is.

[matt2411]

No, i used to be a winning NL400 player for quite awhile (worked my way up from NL25 and 10k later... i was playing NL400)

Played there for a few months, was doing well, then i got hit with the whammy. everything turned to crap, nothing held up, my won @ showdown was in the high 60s, but i was posting 3-4 losing days a week, as opposed to 1 a week to 10 days before. Nothing changed regarding my play. I had to cash out about half my roll (4.5k) and i dropped down to NL200 again with around 3.7k or something. Played there for awhile, still posting more losing sessions than winning sessions, i was losing more days t han winning, as I was winning a lot of small pots, but every big pot i was losing whether i was a 3-1 4-1 or 10-1 favorite.

this all happened as i switched to RB. I was very weary of what was happening so i switched sites. Still losing money (breaking about even with bonuses tho).

when my bonuses ran out, i started getting whittled away, slowly but surely, i made some donk decisions namely taking a shot at a higher limit, lost to a couple failed bluffs, and a few 8-1 suckouts, and redeposited for the first tie in a year.

from then on i cant seem to win at any limit because im running so ridiculously bad. the swings in my BR were ridiculously large, even playing as super tight as i was (i was something stupid like 12/4/2 at full ring.

i would have 8 Buyin swings semi regularly, always down (because of setup hands or missed draws, or just freakish suckouts) because people were calling anything and everything at NL50/NL100. and after a couple losing weeks, i decided to move back up to 2/4

so i decided i was going to play NL400 underrolled, because i can actually play poker there. well that didn;t go well. .. and i busted... again. redeposited (again), started playing 6max to exploit weaker players and play a bit looser and outplay my opponents more often and force them into making mistakes.

same deal though, i would grind away all day, winning small pots. then get all in for 200+ BB pots as a big favorite on turn/flop, and get outdrawn, and be back to even or negative on the day. that would occur a number of times, and i would be a small winner or a big loser on the day.

i stopped playing 6m last night, and switched back to full ring (with a big deposit bonus/rakeback) -- so i could play a bunch tighter, and wait for nuts/2nd nuts and reduce variance overall-- at NL25 and NL50 after losing the remainder of my roll at NL50 and NL100 in the span of 2 hours as a 5-1, 8-1, 7-1 and 19-1 favorite (4 big hands), and busted... again.

upon resuming play at full ring, i went negatively rather quickly losing 2 all in pots to runner runner, but reclaiming lost $$ that as i got my money in with the villain drawing dead.

today... about the same story. started my 1st 150 hands down 4 buyins as I lost 2 all in pots... one to runner runner, the 2nd to a 2 outer on the river. Reclaimed some of that as i got my money in with quads and flush vs made straight, and picked off a few people's all in bluffs on broken draws.

Yes, I whine. yes im a crybaby. But as far as im concerned, its my god given right to [censored] over the internet, after running ice cold (and having the worst beats/luck of my life) for 2 months straight and being a losing player even at the lowest limits, losing time and time again to the biggest donks on the planet, after being a steady winner for so long, and now not even being able to win at the lowest limits is the most frustrating thing ever.

[los_toros]

W-0-W