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#11
07-20-2006, 09:07 AM
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Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i would never fold, i might just push pf and take my chances [/ QUOTE ] Dude, I don't get it. You are up against a player where your read is super-tight, as far as you know, who raised from around front. You have a hand that's either slightly ahead or way behind. Your pot odds are OK but not great. You are far from desperate yet. You have extremely limited FE. You are presumably better than your opponents so you want an edge. Why wouldn't you just insta-muck this and find a better spot? [/ QUOTE ] We haven't seen him play a hand in 2 orbits, but I'm not willing to give him credit for being a complete nit. He's a huge stack relatively early in a 20/180. That usually is not an indicator that someone is super tight. I think you're putting way too much stress on the read. It's an easy push because we have 10xBB, we have a very slight amount of FE probably, and we don't mind it if Villain flips 2 overs here since we're short and this looks like a decent chance to double up. Villain might even call our push with a few hands we're killing like 55-88 too. 
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#13
07-20-2006, 09:19 AM
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Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
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I think pushing is the worst option as we have no fold equity whatsoever. A stop n go is ok but with your read I think folding is probably best. [/ QUOTE ] pushing = folding; pushing OR folding > stop and go Stop and go will rarely fold out the higher pairs (TT-AA). It will fold out overpairs that miss the flop, which is not a good outcome for you.
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#14
07-20-2006, 09:26 AM
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Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
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Ugh. I think I push because with that stack and those blinds I'm going to need to gamble sooner rather than later and 44% is enough of an equity to gamble. Part of the reason of why I gamble is that wining that "coinflip" gives me a stack that's twice as big as those of other 5 players at the table and will increase my ability to steal from them and will also increase my ability to steal from 3 other players who are in the 4k-6k range. So wi that said - combination of decent equity and strategic advantage if I win makes it a fairly easy push for me. [/ QUOTE ] It looks like most people are in between pushing and folding. If it makes a difference, I think the opponent is unlikely to have a tighter range than the one I made up and it's very possible his range is larger. For the people that say push, why not a stop and go? Am I just another donk misapplying this move (this is what I did)? Also I think your comment about being able to steal if I double up is interesting. I believe it's quite possible that if I were to go from say, 7.5 BB to 15 BB, my EV in the tournament more than doubles, since I then have the options of re-stealing and stealing without pushing. These two weapons can be half your game at this stage in the tournament.
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#15
07-20-2006, 09:26 AM
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Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
I'm pushing this. MP villain may or may not be tight as described. Villain may just not have gotten any "pretty" cards in the last 2 orbits. Shove it in. This is definitely +EV.
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#16
07-20-2006, 09:34 AM
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Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
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Stop and go will rarely fold out the higher pairs (TT-AA). It will fold out overpairs that miss the flop, which is not a good outcome for you. [/ QUOTE ] I don't understand, isn't this comment true for doing a stop-and-go with any pocket pair? It seems like you'd never want to do it then.
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#17
07-20-2006, 09:42 AM
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Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Stop and go will rarely fold out the higher pairs (TT-AA). It will fold out overpairs that miss the flop, which is not a good outcome for you. [/ QUOTE ] I don't understand, isn't this comment true for doing a stop-and-go with any pocket pair? It seems like you'd never want to do it then. [/ QUOTE ] You hold 44. Villain theoretically holds 77 or something. You stop and go. Flop is AKQ. Villain folds. Profit. If you pushed preflop, he'd almost certainly call and either be killing you or flipping you. But you can create the appearance of fold equity on a lot of flops where you really shouldn't be able to. But with 99, there's a much better chance Villain calls you down preflop with a hand you're killing, and a lot fewer flops where Villain could actually fold incorrectly to the stop and go. If he has a smaller pair, and he folds on the overcard board, he probably wasn't making a mistake anyway. If he has 2 overs, and folds on a low card flop, it might be a mistake depending on the pot odds but it might not be a mistake in that either, depending on whether or not your flop push gives me odds to draw at his 6 outer.
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#18
07-20-2006, 09:50 AM
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Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
I'm curious how Villian got that huge stack if he's not loose aggro.
2 orbits isn't enough for me to change my mind. I think your range for his hands is conservative. I'd put him on any pair, suited con, Ax, or K9+. That said, I think he'll call your All-in with most of his range. That's what you want. You'll double most of time, and plenty of time you'll do it when he calls with his pocket 5s.
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#19
07-20-2006, 10:01 AM
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Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
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I'm curious how Villian got that huge stack if he's not loose aggro. [/ QUOTE ] Why would you every say this? LAG is the only profitable style of play? Players don't go on heaters? This is a very risky assumption to make without any other information than his stack size.
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#20
07-20-2006, 10:07 AM
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Re: Shortstacked 99 in big blind facing raise
Isn't poker a game of assumptions and risk?
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