QJo in the BB vs potential steal-raise

[Christian_Peters]

I didn't realize it was 5 handed. Sorry. I thought it was a full ring game. I never play short tables so I don't know what PF calling standards become.

[Aaron W.]

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I didn't realize it was 5 handed. Sorry. I thought it was a full ring game. I never play short tables so I don't know what PF calling standards become.

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Even in a full ring game, I think QJ is too much of a hand to pass in a blind against blind situation. However, it is generally true that you need to worry less about aggro blind steals in full ring games... but that doesn't mean it doesn't happen.

[Donkey Kong]

[ QUOTE ]
My point is that you have to factor in that the pot is small, sometimes you don't get your free card and often he has at least one of your outs and/or has you dominated. The EV of this play overall is difficult to estimate, but I suspect it's close to neutral.

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I agree that I'd have to take into account the fact that the pot is small. Its also true that I'd sometimes not get the free card I wanted. Lets have a look at our options:

Flop preflop? I think we've established that a fold is out of the question here. After all, we're not pushovers and we want to have the opportunity to outplay our (suspected?) poor opponent.

So when the flop hits and he makes the standard continuation bet are we going to roll over and assume he hit his hand or be certain he has a better preflop hand? We could have as many as 10 outs if we are behind (although probably not that many), but we might also be ahead: we cant discount that possibility even though its slim. We certainly have 4 outs to the nuts. I'd say folding is clearly wrong.
What about a call? Calling, as usual, doesnt gain much information. If we call we'd have no clue as to what he's holding and we'd be leaving him in charge of the hand. I really hate calling in these situations, which leaves us with only one option, raising.

If he had donked the turn I'd give up on the hand. When taking the free card i was planning on folding to a river bet unimproved.

Thanks guys for all the feedback. I havent posted in a while, so its good to have to start thinking again. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Absolution]

I agree, I was just trying to analyze it from an EV standpoint because I was interested. I would play it the same most likely. I wasn't taking into account that you generally win another bet (although, your overcard outs probably aren't always clean) on the end on average when you hit and lose no more when you don't, so that makes a big difference. With a better read I could definitely see an argument for betting the turn as a freeshowdown/semi-bluff or 3-betting preflop.

[onthebutton]

Christian Peters,

Your avatar makes me want to hurt my computer. Please, make it go away.

OTB

[onthebutton]

Donkey Kong,

I think this looks good. I don't play much short-handed, but what about a 3-bet pre-flop?

OTB

[johnnytt]

I think this hand is good. However, I am tempted alot of times to 3-bet preflop here.

Does anyone ever bet this turn after the flop raise and try to take the pot right there or should we generally take the free card on the turn?

[Buckmulligan]

the turn check is really bad and I'm a little surprised that a lot of posters haven't picked that out. I really like the flop raise but only when you're willing to use the fold equity it earns you with a bet on the turn. You've got to give his Ax or Kx a chance to fold here.

[johnnytt]

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the turn check is really bad and I'm a little surprised that a lot of posters haven't picked that out. I really like the flop raise but only when you're willing to use the fold equity it earns you with a bet on the turn. You've got to give his Ax or Kx a chance to fold here.

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I am with you here. I assume that the flop raise is semibluff. Setting up another one one the turn to steal this pot. If you take free card on the turn and miss on the river then you just get stuck folding to villians river bet.