60 - KK bubble situation

[madbeetz]

I see your argument. I ran the ranges, and found I am winning between 50-55% of the time. If I win, I am guaranteed 2nd... Possibility of winning. So, say I win 60% of the time, and get 2nd 40% of the time. Over a 10 game sample. If I call, I lose around 45-48% of the time, and win 52-55% of the time. I make about 100$ more by calling the shoves than by folding...over the 10 game simulation that is.

[madbeetz]

btw, I still think this may be a fold...

Because, my t2500 in chips does not mean I get 3rd ever time. I actually retract my prior post. I simulted 10 games of me folding and getting 3rd each time. I will get 2nd, and possibly first as well. Even 1 second puts me about even with calling.

[sofere]

Wow...at first I was completely convinced that this was a call, but the math shows otherwise. If you need to be >65% to win, they both have to be on a ridiculously, absurdly HUGE range (like any 2) for this to be a +ev call. If UTG is pushing 10% and Btn is calling 10%, then you are only ~60% to win and are giving up 3.4% EV by calling


equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 20.7453 % 19.76% 00.98% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 20.7453 % 19.76% 00.98% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 3: 58.5094 % 57.73% 00.78% { KK }

.58*.4275 = .248

.248-.282 = -.034

[Sykes]

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If you had 30 more chips it would be a call. However, I think you have to fold this. These two essentially have even stacks which means the bubble is ending here or in the next couple hands.

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he has KK here. i'm not folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I gave CO a range of 40%, Button a range of 10%. Makes this a -2.12% call. I don't imagine changing the ranges will result in the +2.12% gain you would need to make this a call.

So, I stick by my: he has KK, fold.

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Tell me how you plugged this in SNGPT.

[DevinLake]

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If you had 30 more chips it would be a call. However, I think you have to fold this. These two essentially have even stacks which means the bubble is ending here or in the next couple hands.

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he has KK here. i'm not folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I gave CO a range of 40%, Button a range of 10%. Makes this a -2.12% call. I don't imagine changing the ranges will result in the +2.12% gain you would need to make this a call.

So, I stick by my: he has KK, fold.

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Tell me how you plugged this in SNGPT.

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Can't do it with SNGPT. I did it with Excel, PokerStove and an ICM calculator.

[madbeetz]

Heres some math over a 100 sng sample(estimates, but close to realistic)

I am going to win 58% of the time by calling, and lose 42%. So, in a 100 sng sample, I lose 42/100. Now, of the remaining 58, with my chip stack, we'll say I win it 70% of the time.

Thats 10,048.5
I Get 2nd 30% of the time, and thats 2583.5. So, by calling, I win $12,632.4.

Now, if I fold, I am ITM 100% of the time. Now to distribute placements. We will say I take first 12/100(2970.5), 2nd 22/100(3267), and 3rd 67/100(6,630).
for a total of 12,867.5.

Now, I was being extremely modest saying I will win 70% of the time when calling, and also, not placing first more than 12% of the time, and 2nd more than 22%(as the players ITM would have been very weak.) I firmly believe this was a fold

[Ditch Digger]

I'd fold. Puke when villains both turn over QQ.

[Sykes]

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If you had 30 more chips it would be a call. However, I think you have to fold this. These two essentially have even stacks which means the bubble is ending here or in the next couple hands.

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he has KK here. i'm not folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I gave CO a range of 40%, Button a range of 10%. Makes this a -2.12% call. I don't imagine changing the ranges will result in the +2.12% gain you would need to make this a call.

So, I stick by my: he has KK, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

If CO is any good, he's not pushing 40% here. At the very most he pushes with 25% here. BTN is not calling with 10%. He's probably calling with 99+/AQo+ (roughly 5%)

run it now.

This call is only bad if one of the turns over Ax.




equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 57.6059 % 57.51% 00.10% { KK }
Hand 2: 24.1166 % 24.02% 00.10% { A8o }
Hand 3: 18.2775 % 18.18% 00.10% { TT }


Really good if you have one dominated:


equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 75.9997 % 75.66% 00.34% { KK }
Hand 2: 05.9449 % 05.60% 00.34% { KJo }
Hand 3: 18.0554 % 17.93% 00.12% { TT }


However, if they both have Ax, it turns to a good call:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 69.2331 % 69.11% 00.12% { KK }
Hand 2: 08.9839 % 08.35% 00.63% { AJo }
Hand 3: 21.7830 % 21.15% 00.63% { AQs }


If they both have pocket pairs, it's break-even:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 65.8310 % 65.74% 00.09% { KK }
Hand 2: 16.0112 % 15.92% 00.09% { 77 }
Hand 3: 18.1578 % 18.06% 00.09% { TT }



I call.

[madbeetz]

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If you had 30 more chips it would be a call. However, I think you have to fold this. These two essentially have even stacks which means the bubble is ending here or in the next couple hands.

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he has KK here. i'm not folding.

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I gave CO a range of 40%, Button a range of 10%. Makes this a -2.12% call. I don't imagine changing the ranges will result in the +2.12% gain you would need to make this a call.

So, I stick by my: he has KK, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

If CO is any good, he's not pushing 40% here. At the very most he pushes with 25% here. BTN is not calling with 10%. He's probably calling with 99+/AQo+ (roughly 5%)

run it now.

This call is only bad if one of the turns over Ax.




equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 57.6059 % 57.51% 00.10% { KK }
Hand 2: 24.1166 % 24.02% 00.10% { A8o }
Hand 3: 18.2775 % 18.18% 00.10% { TT }


Really good if you have one dominated:


equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 75.9997 % 75.66% 00.34% { KK }
Hand 2: 05.9449 % 05.60% 00.34% { KJo }
Hand 3: 18.0554 % 17.93% 00.12% { TT }


However, if they both have Ax, it turns to a good call:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 69.2331 % 69.11% 00.12% { KK }
Hand 2: 08.9839 % 08.35% 00.63% { AJo }
Hand 3: 21.7830 % 21.15% 00.63% { AQs }


If they both have pocket pairs, it's break-even:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 65.8310 % 65.74% 00.09% { KK }
Hand 2: 16.0112 % 15.92% 00.09% { 77 }
Hand 3: 18.1578 % 18.06% 00.09% { TT }



I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

but, the thing is, if I win, I have .4275% equity. I cannot know specifically what they have. Vs 50% range shove, and a 50% range call, KK wins about 64.5% of the time. (.645*.4275)-.282 for folding, its -.6% $EV

the math justifies folding, I fold here all day.

[leftysright]

i think this is a sick joke. but if not.... INSTACALL.