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#12
06-25-2006, 11:50 PM
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Re: correct my EV calculations
[ QUOTE ]
What you calculate, 6.5x + (1-x).7554 is the EV of betting. That EV is positive, because of the pot-size. You have to compare it to the EV of checking, (9.5/46)*6.5 (assuming no further action). So for betting to be right: 5.7446x + .7554 > (9.5/46)*6.5 => x > ( (9.5/46)*6.5 - 0.7554 )/5.7446 = 10% The chance that both players fold must be more than 10%. [/ QUOTE ] nice! this thread makes me happy in the pants 
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#13
06-26-2006, 01:43 PM
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Re: correct my EV calculations
Some additional things to think about: first, you can't count eight outs for your OESD because there's a flush draw out there. You have discounted your ace outs, but you may have to discount them even more because your kicker no longer plays if an ace hits the river, increasing the likelihood of a split. If you bet and it folds a bare ace you have just helped yourself, so a bet doesn't necessarily have to fold both opponents to have merit.
Sushi's analysis seems to make sense.
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