How are these WSOP bets?

[Gotmilk]

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RWIII has been riding the variance wave the last 5 WSOPs in PLO events. He's obviously one of the better players but assuming that because he made the last two FTs he'll make this one is dumb. BTW, I don't think there is a PLO rebuy this yea

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If he's one of the better players, and there are roughly 100 players, he is clearly better than 9:1 to make the final table.

[DoubleTwentyOne]

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LotsofOuts,

RWIII has been riding the variance wave the last 5 WSOPs in PLO events. He's obviously one of the better players but assuming that because he made the last two FTs he'll make this one is dumb. BTW, I don't think there is a PLO rebuy this year.

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BTW, he did not FT in all of the EXACT SAME events.

2 years ago, he came in second to Chau Giang in the $2000 PLO event

Last year, he FTed in the $5000 rebuy PLO.

Only the $5000 is a rebuy, the others are not.

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EDIT: There are 2 PLO events. I don't think it's a bad bet at all.

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In fact there are 3 PLO, not counting H/L events.

$2000
$5000 with rebuys
$10000

[El Ishmael]

According to this there is a 10k and a 1500. Here

[Greg (FossilMan)]

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Yeah, but the thing is, Hachem is horrible at poker. I would be surprised if either of them made anything.

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And your basis for this opinion is ... ?

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[okterrific]

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Moneymaker will win more money overall than Hachem: I say yes, even money.

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FWIW Moneymaker stated on an episode of "the circuit" that he was planning to play in every (or as many possible) event at the WSOP this year. So i would take Moneymaker in that bet not knowing what Hachem's WSOP plans are.

[okterrific]

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Yeah, but the thing is, Hachem is horrible at poker. I would be surprised if either of them made anything.

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And your basis for this opinion is ... ?

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

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Because some people seem to believe that the last 4 WSOP champions are all donks that got lucky.

[El Ishmael]

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Yeah, but the thing is, Hachem is horrible at poker. I would be surprised if either of them made anything.

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And your basis for this opinion is ... ?

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

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The basis of my opinion is that I regularly play in Joe Hachem's local Melbourne home game, and he is down over $109 in 3 hours of play.

[El Ishmael]

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Yeah, but the thing is, Hachem is horrible at poker. I would be surprised if either of them made anything.

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And your basis for this opinion is ... ?

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

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Because some people seem to believe that the last 4 WSOP champions are all donks that got lucky.

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Yes, this is clearly the assumption behind my comment. Go back to your hovel.

[NickMPK]

The only bet I really like there is the # of entrants bet.

I don't like the Grinder bet very much, assuming Mizrachi is planning on playing as many events as possible. Remember that about half of the WSOP events will draw ~400 or fewer players. If he plays in 20 such events, he is at least even money to make a final table.

I have no idea who Jason Strasser is.

And I really don't like the RWIII bet. Last year, the 10K Omaha event only had 165 entrants, making a random person 15.5:1 to make the final table in that event alone. Combine the other PLO events (how many are there, three?), and I think a good PLO player like RWIII is much better than 1:10 to make it.

[NickMPK]

BTW, assuming that a random person has an equal chance of finishing in every position in a tournament (in other words, they have a 5% chance of making the final table in a 200 person tourney, and a 1% chance of making it in a 1000 person tourney), then such a random person who entered every open event at the 2005 WSOP (not counting casino employees, ladies, seniors events), would have a 65% chance of making at least one final table (where final table is defined as Top 10...not exactly accurate for Stud events).

So I think any bet in which you lay odds that someone will not make a final table is a bad one unless you are sure that they aren't playing many events.