Party $3/6 -- Pocket Kings Faces Pre-Flop Cap

[Poliorcetes]

The problem with bet/folding the flop is that it gives QQ too many opportunities to fold us out. (I know - results orientated, but bear with me).

When we lead and get raised, two things can happen with button: he calls it cold - meaning the chances we are beat just went exponential and we fold. Or he folds, in which case we have a big pot and a villain holding AA (3 combos), KK (1 combo), QQ(6 combos), AK (6 combos).

We have too much equity to consider folding, and I want to go to showdown.

Consider the PokerStove:

One, by just calling down (and assuming our passive will also just call with his top 30% range hand).

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

21,525,714 games 6.953 secs 3,095,888 games/sec

Board: Ac 7s 4h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 25.5932 % 23.67% 01.92% { KK }
Hand 2: 52.9251 % 50.87% 02.06% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 21.4818 % 21.21% 00.27% { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }


Go to showdown (1 bet each per street) : total pot*equity - cost = (6BB PF + 5BB)*0.25 - 2.5BB = 0.25BB

Two, by leading and getting raised (and assuming button will fold).

Board: Ac 7s 4h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.0909 % 35.97% 03.13% { KK }
Hand 2: 60.9091 % 57.78% 03.13% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }


Total - ours = (6BB PF + 3BB)*0.4 - 3BB = 0.6BB

Scenario two needs to be discounted by x% where x is the time he holds an ace. If this is more than 40% of the time then scenario one is better. Either way, I hate folding.

[Peter Harris]

[ QUOTE ]
Party $3/6. UTG raises. You don't have numbers on him but he seems fairly, but not extremely, passive and somehwat loose. Terrible calling staion cold-calls on the button. Hero three-bets KK out of the BB, Villain caps and Button and Hero call.

Flop is Ace-rag-rag (rainbow).

What's your plan?

[/ QUOTE ]

i like your c/c c/c b/f line.

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
bet out and fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are opening yourself up to being outplayed with this line.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, particularly since I don't have a very good read on villain. A decent player, tricky player or just plain wild player may well raise my flop bet with hands like QQ or JJ.

[Ineedaride2]

Ok, what does MHIG stand for?

I think it's the last acronym I have to learn.

[Scary_Tiger]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, what does MHIG stand for?

I think it's the last acronym I have to learn.

[/ QUOTE ]

My hand is good.

I really doubt QQ raises an A-hi flop versus a preflop 3-bettor. I'll continue to do my b/f, b/f, b/f line.

[kidcolin]

KK beats QQ.. now think hard!!

[shpanko]

Scary_Tiger, do you b/f every street even if the button calls both flop and turn along with the UTG player?

[Scary_Tiger]

[ QUOTE ]
Scary_Tiger, do you b/f every street even if the button calls both flop and turn along with the UTG player?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, if both call the flop I'm likely checking the turn. If capper calls and fishy folds or other way around, I'm betting the whole way.

[pokergrader]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok, what does MHIG stand for?

I think it's the last acronym I have to learn.

[/ QUOTE ]

My hand is good.

I really doubt QQ raises an A-hi flop versus a preflop 3-bettor. I'll continue to do my b/f, b/f, b/f line.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with this is a good player with QQ either raises or folds, and either way bet/folding costs you the most.