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#11
06-18-2006, 03:41 PM
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Re: QTo button steal
[ QUOTE ]
man, I basically get the same result (when villain has a FD, I count 8 outs him out of 44 remaining cards, because we know he has 2 hearts plus the 4 board cards and our 2 hole cards (52-2-4-2=44), but give us .85 to win. However, I'm not sure it's exactly right. See, sometimes we call a river bet when one of our "5 outs" hits, even though he was on our flush draw, so we lose 2 bets sometimes. This cuts into our EV when he is on a flush draw and we think we improve. I'm too lazy to incorporate it into the calc, but I think it gets a little more complicated. Buzz [/ QUOTE ] I actually took into account the fact that one of our 5 outs won't be best when I discounted our equity of hitting those 5 outs when he has an ace. and when he's on a flush draw it doesn't matter if we hit our five outs; except for the Th, he'll check/fold those rivers so it's the same as when we don't hit. am I missing something here? 
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#12
06-18-2006, 03:55 PM
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Re: QTo button steal
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] man, I basically get the same result (when villain has a FD, I count 8 outs him out of 44 remaining cards, because we know he has 2 hearts plus the 4 board cards and our 2 hole cards (52-2-4-2=44), but give us .85 to win. However, I'm not sure it's exactly right. See, sometimes we call a river bet when one of our "5 outs" hits, even though he was on our flush draw, so we lose 2 bets sometimes. This cuts into our EV when he is on a flush draw and we think we improve. I'm too lazy to incorporate it into the calc, but I think it gets a little more complicated. Buzz [/ QUOTE ] and when he's on a flush draw it doesn't matter if we hit our five outs; except for the Th, he'll check/fold those rivers so it's the same as when we don't hit. am I missing something here? [/ QUOTE ] Maybe I'm confused? When he is on a flush draw and misses, we planned on checking check it through. If we bet he folds. When he hits his flush draw and we make two pair, we pay off (we don't know if he is on a flush draw or has top pair or better, so our plan was to pay off if we make two pair or trips, and fold if the flush comes in.) Buzz
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#13
06-18-2006, 04:13 PM
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Re: QTo button steal
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] man, I basically get the same result (when villain has a FD, I count 8 outs him out of 44 remaining cards, because we know he has 2 hearts plus the 4 board cards and our 2 hole cards (52-2-4-2=44), but give us .85 to win. However, I'm not sure it's exactly right. See, sometimes we call a river bet when one of our "5 outs" hits, even though he was on our flush draw, so we lose 2 bets sometimes. This cuts into our EV when he is on a flush draw and we think we improve. I'm too lazy to incorporate it into the calc, but I think it gets a little more complicated. Buzz [/ QUOTE ] and when he's on a flush draw it doesn't matter if we hit our five outs; except for the Th, he'll check/fold those rivers so it's the same as when we don't hit. am I missing something here? [/ QUOTE ] Maybe I'm confused? When he is on a flush draw and misses, we planned on checking check it through. If we bet he folds. When he hits his flush draw and we make two pair, we pay off (we don't know if he is on a flush draw or has top pair or better, so our plan was to pay off if we make two pair or trips, and fold if the flush comes in.) Buzz [/ QUOTE ] actually in this case there's only one card that will give him the flush and us the 2-pair/trips (T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) so I ignored it. you're right though in the general case it will be more complicated than this.
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#14
06-18-2006, 05:13 PM
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Re: QTo button steal
Call him down.
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#15
06-18-2006, 11:39 PM
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Re: QTo button steal
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] man, I basically get the same result (when villain has a FD, I count 8 outs him out of 44 remaining cards, because we know he has 2 hearts plus the 4 board cards and our 2 hole cards (52-2-4-2=44), but give us .85 to win. However, I'm not sure it's exactly right. See, sometimes we call a river bet when one of our "5 outs" hits, even though he was on our flush draw, so we lose 2 bets sometimes. This cuts into our EV when he is on a flush draw and we think we improve. I'm too lazy to incorporate it into the calc, but I think it gets a little more complicated. Buzz [/ QUOTE ] and when he's on a flush draw it doesn't matter if we hit our five outs; except for the Th, he'll check/fold those rivers so it's the same as when we don't hit. am I missing something here? [/ QUOTE ] Maybe I'm confused? When he is on a flush draw and misses, we planned on checking check it through. If we bet he folds. When he hits his flush draw and we make two pair, we pay off (we don't know if he is on a flush draw or has top pair or better, so our plan was to pay off if we make two pair or trips, and fold if the flush comes in.) Buzz [/ QUOTE ] actually in this case there's only one card that will give him the flush and us the 2-pair/trips (T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) so I ignored it. you're right though in the general case it will be more complicated than this. [/ QUOTE ] oh yah, duh! And you made that plain and clear as day in your original message. Sorry! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#16
06-19-2006, 09:56 AM
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Re: QTo button steal
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] My god...that is the most intense explaination ive seen ina very long time on this site. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Reged: 05/23/06 [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] fwiw split suit is the guy who introduced me to 2+2 he's just not a prolific poster. and no one's told me my math is wrong, so I'm assuming it's correct.
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