Did I misplay this hand completely and get lucky?

[TomBrooks]

flop call bad I think

[DING-DONG YO]

PF is fine. I complete out of SB with another Cold caller here in front.

When you missed the set on the flop, it should have been an easy flop fold.

So, basically, yes, you got lucky.

[PotLuckPete]

[ QUOTE ]
PF is fine. I complete out of SB with another Cold caller here in front.


[/ QUOTE ]

This could very well be a leak in my own game, but I'm curious on the call here.

I understand we're getting 'decent' odds with another cold caller in front. Even if I hit the set on flop, I'm out of position the whole hand, are we going to be able to make it worth the call? With UTG raising and those stats, it's set or nothing.

[MrEngenic]

I think preflop is a fold and the flop is a very very clear fold.

[Dagger78]

Fold pre-flop, fold the flop

[raytownloc]

Yes, fold the flop.

Here's my attempt at some pretty shaky poker math.

pair flops set 12% of the time
flopped set wins pot 70% of the time
Average pot won 12.5BB (no idea really, just using this hand as an example. Three (or four) in for two bets pf.)

so 12% * 70% * 12.5BB = 1.05BB expectation given a 12.5BB average pot.

so how big would the pot have to be in order to make a call worth it?

12% * 70% * x = 1.5BB

x = 17.8BB

I don't think that this would be the average pot unless the table was ultra loose aggressive. So Im agreeing with the no flop call people. Although the 70% win rate I assume was estimated for full ring, so perhaps its a bit higher in shorthanded. Either way, I think its a marginally -EV call at best.

My new line= flop preflop.

Any comments on my math? (be gentle).

[Usylesses]

I actually think the decission preflop and on the flop are similar. In both cases if you know the BB is going to call behind you should call, but if he raises or folds it screws your pot odds and implied odds. I think both preflop and flop are folds.