"What decision do I make now?" : Math will not get you there - Page 2

kazana · #11 06-12-2006, 11:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
historical overview cannot help you [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] So, why ever do it?

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't know about the other players here, but I've never made any maths-based decision that rely on my historical data as input.

Nevertheless, my historical data helps me a lot to find faulty patterns in my play. So, if I realize that cold-calling with 72o didn't serve me well, it may well have an impact on my decisions at the table.
I wouldn't claim that this decision is based on maths, though.

I don't quite get your point. It's as if you're comparing apples to... well... high heels or something like that.

Andrew Prock · #12 06-12-2006, 12:38 PM

I'm a bit confused by your terminology here. If neural nets aren't math, then what are they?

DrakeDerek · #13 06-12-2006, 01:41 PM

I agree that historical data is very useful. Kinda like video taping your golf swing..... doesn't help you during the swing, but afterwards you may see something or get advice about something wrong. Without understanding the past, we are doomed to repeat it.

Utah · #14 06-12-2006, 07:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a bit confused by your terminology here. If neural nets aren't math, then what are they?

[/ QUOTE ]I would say that they are AI.

Utah · #15 06-12-2006, 07:25 PM

We tried profiles to start but they were a disaster. You cant really profile someone well and they dont always play the same. If I recall, we tried doing some cluster analysis or something but we gave up.

Andrew Prock · #16 06-12-2006, 09:06 PM

What makes you think that AI isn't math?

- Andrew

Utah · #17 06-12-2006, 09:19 PM

It is a silly question of semantics. Please feel free to think of it as math if you prefer [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Siegmund · #18 06-12-2006, 09:36 PM

It's been almost exactly a year now since I saw a post from Utah, when he was first starting this project of his. I have been curious, off and on since then, whether it ever got off the ground or not. Nice to hear it's still going and has produced, well, something, even if we can't see just what.

I am, of course, a bit disturbed by the "math will not get you there" phrasing. I would word it more like this: given your knowledge about the cards and your opponents, there is a straightforward mathematical solution - calculate EVs, pick the best one. The problem is that the kind of knowledge we gain by watching an opponent (especially one who doesn't go to showdown) is difficult to represent in the kind of equation you saw in high school.

I am burning with curiosity about how you train a neural net without feeding it historical information, though. Updating the weights on nodes is not fundamentally different from updating any other statistic based on observations as they come in...

LuckyTxGuy · #19 06-13-2006, 01:45 AM

First off let me say that this thread leaves me pretty confused! [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] Utah, I understand that you are developing a new product (software?) that cannot be exposed yet. However, can you give us any idea of if and when this new product might be released for sale or viewing to the public?

Utah · #20 06-13-2006, 09:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
First off let me say that this thread leaves me pretty confused! Utah, I understand that you are developing a new product (software?) that cannot be exposed yet. However, can you give us any idea of if and when this new product might be released for sale or viewing to the public?

[/ QUOTE ]Do know yet. The product is finished for the most part and it can be fully used in gameplay now. I am meeting with the development and investors in about 2 weeks to determine next steps.