A234 spot

[flexus]

If this is not an auto-fold I have to seriously reevaluate my postflop play.

[donger]

I think this kind of depends on how your opponents play. If this is a pretty wild and aggro game, it's probably a fold since you'll probably end up sticking in 4 SB on an installment plan and ruining your effective odds.

I had thought this was an easy fold, but I've been messing around with twodimes and you probably have an equity of somewhere around 18-20%. You're getting nearly 10:1 to cold call this raise, so if the flop bettor donks a lot and isn't necessarily looking to jam here, I think I take one off.

here's a couple of sample twodimes crunches:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1779469 16% vs two other A2s, top 2 and a set

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1779466 21% vs one A2, top 2 and a set

[Scott Y.]

The flush draw is a problem, since it's getting multiway and you'll be jammed by a nut diamond draw which is a likely hand. But if you can see the next card for 2SB, I'd be shocked if it were a bad call otb.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Buzz could give some real numbers but I just dont see the equity as you are going to probably have to call 2+ bets on the turn as well

[/ QUOTE ]Station - I'm not sure what you want. Low will be possible here one hand out of four (25%). Hero will always have the nut low when it is possible. It's very difficult (impossible) to know how many other players will hang around to possibly share the low with Hero, should it become enabled. I don't think anyone plays this flop for low, especially to a double bet on the flop, but someone might coincidentally end up with the nut low, same as Hero. If any of the players who saw the flop with Hero and who could end up with the nut low continue, then Hero will split the low about one third of the time - but that's not realistic because nobody will continue here just going for the low.

I did run a series of simulations. 100,000 runs for the first, non-folding one and 10,000 runs for the rest. Low was possible very close to 25%. (That's what it calculates to be too). Hero made a flush about 7.8% and a straight about 14.3%. The flush won 3300/4500 while the straight won for high about 3800/14300 in the 100,000 run seven handed non-folding simulation.

Although seven players saw the flop, fewer continued. Looks to me as though three, not including Tex (Hero), continued. But since six of Hero's opponents saw the flop, and since those who have a flop fit are more likely to continue after the flop than those that do not, to get a more realistic picture of Hero's chances, I ran the non-folding sim against six opponents. Hero makes the flush or straight just as often regardless of the number of opponents, but Hero doesn't win as often against more non-folding opponents.

Wilson's simulator (the one I use) enables different line-ups for the simulation. In addition to a non-folding line-up, there are various loose, average, and tight line-ups. Using both six opponents and three opponents, I tried about a dozen different line-ups and in every single case, Hero was the big loser.

I was surprised. It looked to me, before running the series of sims, as though with a loose enough line-up, because of the money already in the pot from the first betting round, Hero could show a profit by seeing one more card and then folding if the turn was not a low card, and if all three opponents would continue to the showdown without raising. But evidently none of the various Wilson characters, even the loosest and most passive, played that poorly.

At any rate, against either three or six (or any other number of opponents I tried), the hand/flop ended up losing money.

Therefore I think the best thing to do is dump the hand to the double bet after the flop. (Playing against fools I'd see one more card for a single bet with this hand after this flop, but the double bet is too much).

Buzz