AQs headsup against a TAG reraise

[Badger]

I didn't have a good feeling about how to play this hand, so I pokerstoved it:

Board: As 8s 3s 7s

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 34.2476 % 25.16% 09.09% { AhQh }
Hand 2: 65.7524 % 56.66% 09.09% { JJ+, AQs+, KQs, AKo }

I think that's a pretty accurate 3-betting range from a tag.

Boz- why is this not WA/WB at the turn? If he's got a hand we're afraid of we're drawing dead. If he doesn't he's drawing to a 1 out to win.

What is the villain calling the flop with? I think he may have decided he's going to showdown with AK,AQ or he's calling with a spade draw- Probably Js at the worst.

The turn call seems he's getting fancy with the Ks, doesn't like his Qs or Js or is continuing his call down with an A. None of these are good situations for us.

So I'm with OP on c/f here. I think villain would have a hard time bluffing at this pot with a hand we beat. Boz- are you advocating b/f to try and take this pot down without a showdown against a better hand, hoping for a call from a worse hand, or not wanting to have to c/f against a bluff. Or something else?

[McNeese72]

[ QUOTE ]
damn that flop donk is nasty

you realize that if you check call the flop he can put you on quite a wide range of hands right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm here to learn. Please expain and what do you recommend doing on the flop?

Thanks,
Doc

[milesdyson]

do you think this player ever checks this flop with a hand that 3-bets preflop?

what are you going to do if your flop bet gets raised?

couldnt you check call this flop with a huge range of hands? think KQ with a spade, any pocket pair with a spade, etc.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Boz- why is this not WA/WB at the turn? If he's got a hand we're afraid of we're drawing dead. If he doesn't he's drawing to a 1 out to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

If Vill is anywhere near decent, we are nowhere near equally likely to be ahead as behind. Further, if we're ahead Villan hasn't enough outs to a full win and if we're behind we don't have enough outs to a full win.

[McNeese72]

Villain ended up having TT with the Ts.

Doc

[Gray_Stork]

<Grunch>
Preflop is standard and flop looks okay, too. As weak as it may sound though, I would consider checking this turn. It is quite likely that you're now way behind, or actually drawing dead. Betting here does provide you with enough information to safely check-fold the river, since he calls again. But still, I don't think villain would try to steal the pot on the river even if you checked on turn, indicating weakness. And I think it's very likely that all the worse hands will fold to this bet whereas better hands will raise. AK w/o the spade is the only better hand he might fold against aggression.

Edit: If villain checks behind on turn, definitely bet the river.

Just my thoughts,
Gray_Stork

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Betting here does provide you with enough information to safely check-fold the river...

[/ QUOTE ]

It does? Would you say the same thing if Hero had bet the river and Vill had folded?

[ QUOTE ]
And I think it's very likely that all the worse hands will fold to this bet whereas better hands will raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Two pair or a set would be insane to raise on a four-flush board without a piece of it.

[ QUOTE ]
AK w/o the spade is the only better hand he might fold against aggression.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm actually quite surprised that Vill didn't fold his T-high flush.

[ QUOTE ]
If villain checks behind on turn, definitely bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because nobody ever slow-plays a made flush with position on the turn, right?

[johnnytt]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain ended up having TT with the Ts.

Doc

[/ QUOTE ]

This is kind of what I figured . . . I was thinking JJ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I dont think he calls turn bet with a hand that does not contain a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

However, I still have no idea how to play this hand.

[Buckmulligan]

OP-

Oh, good. You're the guy who has been inexplicably donking flops into me after I three bet preflop.

[johnnytt]

[ QUOTE ]
OP-

Oh, good. You're the guy who has been inexplicably donking flops into me after I three bet preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what do you recommend as a course of action for this hand?

c/c flop? check/raise flop?