Is the pot too big to lay this down? - Page 2

theblitz · #11 05-30-2006, 09:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
what do u guys think of my raise to $15 on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm probably making it at least $25.
This would make your decision easy after the re-raise.

jetsetboy · #12 05-30-2006, 09:43 AM

Instacall :

Button can make this play with any set, any 2 pairs or any draw. I think 4:1 is close to the money there (because you will find some draw, some dumb players with KQ/KJ/QJ/AJ here enough often). You'll have some outs against two pairs. The worst case scenario is a draw + a set and will not happen so often. Every other scenario will induce give you the odds to call here. Calling here will losen your table image and later they might think twice about trying to semibluff with draws.

I don't like the 15$ raise. It's weak. The pot is $27 at this point. You're giving the odds to call to any player with a FD and you're giving them odds to raise AI with any NFD. IF you want to fold later because this a scary board AND you haven't hit your set AND you think you might be behind you should call the first bet and fold to the reraise. I think you have only 2 options :
_ C/F and evaluate on the turn if there is no reraise (and if the turn is checked to you bet strongly/PSB or PSR any blank card on the turn if you're HU against donk, call a scary card).
_ Raise at least $20 (and may be $25), but if you raise here you should be ready to go broke.

ValarMorghulis · #13 05-30-2006, 09:46 AM

Pot sized raise is to $37, so your raise to $15 is very small. If you made a proper raise it would be an even easier call.

I dunno where everyone is finding a fold from. If you remove UTG's actions from the equation, (given OP's read on him) the action on the flop is hero bets $15, button raises to $45, then it's an easy call for hero with AA.

djoyce003 · #14 05-30-2006, 09:49 AM

you should have been able to reraise preflop....his reraise was over half a bet, therefore you should have had the option to reraise...are you sure you didn't?

DXX · #15 05-30-2006, 09:53 AM

i raised to $3 he raises all in for $5.32...i can't reraise

djoyce003 · #16 05-30-2006, 09:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I dunno where everyone is finding a fold from. If you remove UTG's actions from the equation, (given OP's read on him) the action on the flop is hero bets $15, button raises to $45, then it's an easy call for hero with AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

retarded or not, button is facing a lead, AND a raise...he's gone all-in over the top of that and UTG called...now granted he's a retard, but retards sometimes have hands. Hero probably has 1 ace out, and maybe 3 other 2 pair outs. I think he's behind at least 2 pair here...maybe a set, and I think it's very likely that even if he IS ahead (which I think is highly unlikely) then the retard probably is drawing live. Best hero can hope for is that button slowplayed kings like a retard, but I wouldn't count on it. More likely is that button is on a combo draw which is a coin flip, and retard has something like KJ that he thinks is good.....worst case hero is TOAST. I think I fold here. As shown by twodimes, hero's about equity neutral against the combo draw and retard with a pair.

Combo draw example

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1755810
pokenum -h ad ah - jc kc - 9s as -- 8s js th
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Js 8s Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 290 32.12 598 66.22 15 1.66 0.328
Kc Jc 106 11.74 788 87.26 9 1.00 0.121
As 9s 492 54.49 396 43.85 15 1.66 0.551

AA/KK/QJ example

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1755813
pokenum -h ad ah - jc qc - kd kh -- 8s js th
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Js 8s Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 524 58.03 379 41.97 0 0.00 0.580
Qc Jc 296 32.78 607 67.22 0 0.00 0.328
Kd Kh 83 9.19 820 90.81 0 0.00 0.092

Check out hero's awesome equity againt a set and a flush draw (I think the most likely of the scenarios). If you change it froma set to two pair...hero's equity is still only 15%.

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1755816
pokenum -h ad ah - 8c 8h - 3s 2s -- 8s js th
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Js 8s Th
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 55 6.09 830 91.92 18 1.99 0.068
8c 8h 600 66.45 285 31.56 18 1.99 0.671
3s 2s 230 25.47 655 72.54 18 1.99 0.261

vulturesrow · #17 05-30-2006, 10:04 AM

I think that calling here is nuts. UTG lead into a preflop raiser in a protected pot, OP raised and got two all-in behind him. You are either slightly ahead or way behind.

DXX · #18 05-30-2006, 10:20 AM

Hero calls $29.93 (All-In).

Turn: ($190.52) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players, 3 all-in)

River: ($190.52) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players, 3 all-in)

Final Pot: $190.52
Main Pot: $21.28, between UTG, Hero, CO and Button. > Pot won by Hero ($21.28).
Pot 2: $135.54, between UTG, Hero and Button. > Pot won by Hero ($135.54).
Pot 3: $33.70, between UTG and Button. > Pot won by UTG ($33.70).

Results in white below: 
UTG has 9d Td (two pair, tens and eights).
Hero has Ad Ah (two pair, aces and eights).
CO has Tc 9c (two pair, tens and eights).
Button has 9s As (one pair, eights).
Outcome: Hero wins $156.82. UTG wins $33.70.

Fallen Hero · #19 05-30-2006, 10:22 AM

vulturesrow is proven right.

JimmyB13 · #20 05-30-2006, 10:31 AM

I take two lessons from this hand...

(1) Be aware of the shortstack's stack size and cater your preflop raise amount if necessary so that if he pushes it's a legal raise and you can then threebet.

(2) Never underestimate how retarded some ssnl players are.

btw, I'm glad you raked this monster pot...but I'm pretty sure from the fact you posted that you know the correct play here is almost always to fold given this action. Do you make this call if you don't have a read on utg as "retard."