Stars 2/4 - J9s that didn't go as planned

[kazana]

UTG+1 could have made his flush and was going for a c/r on the turn. Otherwise, I'd have to assume he's got AT/KT (after calling the flop raise) or was calling the flop raise with an OESD.

CO's hand could be an overpair or simply two high cards (QQ+, AJ+, KQ). I think overcards are more likely than an overpair.

Overall, I see the chance of being ahead greatly reduced.

It's a check/fold for timid little me.

[ackid]

Aaron,

Why did you raise the flop? Did you think your hand was good or were you trying to knock out UTG?

[skillzilla]

i think river is a check/call
CO most likely have two big cards and might have been on a straight draw
by checking we can induce a bluff and of course we might be terribly beaten

[btspider]

Aaron,

Why did you raise the flop? Did you think your hand was good or were you trying to knock out UTG?

both, he expects the PFR to be c-betting overcards some % of the time.

[Kwaz]

I just bet/fold the turn.

[The.Accountant]

Grunch:

Your outs to two pair and trips need to be heavily discounted. They're no good at all if you're facing 99 or TT, and the [club]'s are no good either.

The one card straight draw is also weak, you have 3 outs that are only clean if no one else holds a J, and that's if there isn't already a set out.

There's no way you're ahead here unless the CO has AK, so I'd c/f.

[Xhad]

I was going to bet/fold until I realized that the spade might have scared UTG1 from betting a T. I don't think he has a flush because the bettor acted before him and checked.

I think CO has us beat approximately never, if he calls the river I put him on AK. Consequently I'm certainly calling a bet from him and his calling doesn't change whether I call UTG1 or not.

Actually, the more I think about it we're probably not ahead of CO's range, but we may get him to call in those situations where he has something like 98s, plus if he doesn't call CO might call with his Ahigh, and he's betting or raising his better hands anyway. So I bet/fold but I don't really like it.

[Aaron W.]

I checked the river and it got checked through. Then I saw the showdown hands and realized I dodged a ton of bullets:

Final board: 9c 4s Ts 7s 3c
UTG+1: Kd Qs
CO: Ac Jc

I take the pot with a pair of 9s and avoided the 17 cards which kill my hand (the 9 spades, 1 losing non-flush two pair jacks, 2 non-flush aces, 2 non-flush kings, and 3 non-flush queens).

Just for fun:

On the flop...

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1753298
pokenum -h jd 9d - ac jc - kd qs -- 9c 4s ts
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Ts 4s 9c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jd 9d 454 50.28 424 46.95 25 2.77 0.517
Ac Jc 157 17.39 721 79.84 25 2.77 0.188
Qs Kd 267 29.57 636 70.43 0 0.00 0.296

On the turn...

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1753290
pokenum -h jd 9d - ac jc - kd qs -- 9c 4s ts 7s
Holdem Hi: 42 enumerated boards containing Ts 7s 4s 9c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jd 9d 22 52.38 17 40.48 3 7.14 0.560
Ac Jc 2 4.76 37 88.10 3 7.14 0.083
Qs Kd 15 35.71 27 64.29 0 0.00 0.357

As far as I can tell, this was the *WORST* turn card possible where I kept the lead. Not only are the flush cards bad, but the 3 nonflush 8s turn this into a chopping hand.