A couple live hands from the Taj 300 + 40

[jon_1van]

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does the difference between 14.5k and, say, 3.7k make a big difference to you?

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Yes.

[seke2]

I don't think the first one was a fold. With blinds and antes, we've got something like ~1700 in the pot preflop (I'm sorta splitting the difference since you didn't know what blinds were). Then a player leads for 2k, then another pushes 5.5k. So it's about 9k in the pot when you act, and it's very likely UTG is going for 3.5k more since he bet such a big portion already. So effectively, I think you've got 12.5k in the pot and it's a bit under 5k for you to call (since you're a blind).

So you need roughly 28-29% equity to call. I gave UTG and MP some semi-reasonable ranges for your descriptions.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.8161 % 23.67% 06.15% { AcKd }
Hand 2: 33.4373 % 30.06% 03.38% { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hand 3: 36.7466 % 32.42% 04.32% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

In other words, it's pretty marginal, but I'd call. If you lose, you still have 7.5k. If you win, you've got a monster stack and can really push other people around.


And I really don't think Hand 2 is that close or interesting, I just don't see a rationale to call....but if you truly believe in the range you gave him, you can make a very marginal call.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.4757 % 43.25% 05.23% { Ac9d }
Hand 2: 51.5243 % 46.30% 05.23% { 22+, A2s+, KJs+, A2o+, KJo+ }

Whether or not you are LP or the blinds would make a significant difference, since that could swing the pot odds to make this a call if you've already invested part of that 100k you have to call. But I think your range is really wide for him, I'd tighten it a bit and it'd be enough for me to fold. He's risking quite a bit since it sounds like at least 2 players have a lot less chips than he does.

[adanthar]

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Here is the payout structure
1st - 14.5k
2nd - 7.5k
3rd - 3.7k
4th - 2.2k
5th - 1.2k

A few hands ago 4th and 5th place stacks had 2 BB each. We discussed a deal in which the places would pay 10k (ME) , 7.5k , 7.5k , 2.5k , 2.5k (we wouldn't play it out).

A small stack wanted 3k. I wouldn't entertain that. Because that takes 1k from 1st-3rd. We played on.

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Next time insist on 10K, it'll work out somehow (likely from the 7.5K stacks when they realize the difference is $167 each). Also, if the money is important, take the deal anyway.

As it stands, fold, the edge (if any) isn't worth it.

[jon_1van]

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I don't think the first one was a fold. With blinds and antes, we've got something like ~1700 in the pot preflop (I'm sorta splitting the difference since you didn't know what blinds were). Then a player leads for 2k, then another pushes 5.5k. So it's about 9k in the pot when you act, and it's very likely UTG is going for 3.5k more since he bet such a big portion already. So effectively, I think you've got 12.5k in the pot and it's a bit under 5k for you to call (since you're a blind).

So you need roughly 28-29% equity to call. I gave UTG and MP some semi-reasonable ranges for your descriptions.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 29.8161 % 23.67% 06.15% { AcKd }
Hand 2: 33.4373 % 30.06% 03.38% { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hand 3: 36.7466 % 32.42% 04.32% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

In other words, it's pretty marginal, but I'd call. If you lose, you still have 7.5k. If you win, you've got a monster stack and can really push other people around.


And I really don't think Hand 2 is that close or interesting, I just don't see a rationale to call....but if you truly believe in the range you gave him, you can make a very marginal call.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.4757 % 43.25% 05.23% { Ac9d }
Hand 2: 51.5243 % 46.30% 05.23% { 22+, A2s+, KJs+, A2o+, KJo+ }

Whether or not you are LP or the blinds would make a significant difference, since that could swing the pot odds to make this a call if you've already invested part of that 100k you have to call. But I think your range is really wide for him, I'd tighten it a bit and it'd be enough for me to fold. He's risking quite a bit since it sounds like at least 2 players have a lot less chips than he does.

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I think overall this is good analysis.

Regarding hand 1. Your analysis in a vacuum is way this is a call. I agree 100% with the spirit of your anaylsis (but I'd tighten up hand 3 a bit)

The reason I took the slim call (and I was pretty sure I had juuuuust enough equity to call) and folded was because I had a big enough stack to threaten the other small guys at the table. And I didn't want to jeopardize my already "medium/big stack" to get a "big/huge" stack. I earned the stack I had realitively risk free and I didn't want to gamble for a significant chunch of it.

The decision was VERY VERY close for me.


Regarding hand 2 ::
I called with the A9o. I decided to call pretty quickly. However, I'm still not sure I like the call. Despite the fact that the opponent showed A7o. The reason I called quickly is that I was VERY confident he would start jamming once he got some chips. Also, there is a chance he makes a standard raise with any hand that REALLY wants action. The open push was just too "stealy" for me not to call it.

I'm not sure what to think about the call. I was very confident in my read. But is it best to make the call and accept all the risk (basically garunteeing yourself a great deal if you win) or should I have folded and waited for some of the small/medium stacks to bust each other up.


Thanks for your help.

You mentioned that his raise is "stronger" because of the presence of the small stacks. This is not the case. He was a small stack and had since doubled twice. The other small stack had also doubled once. So no one was eminetly in danger.

[jon_1van]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Here is the payout structure
1st - 14.5k
2nd - 7.5k
3rd - 3.7k
4th - 2.2k
5th - 1.2k

A few hands ago 4th and 5th place stacks had 2 BB each. We discussed a deal in which the places would pay 10k (ME) , 7.5k , 7.5k , 2.5k , 2.5k (we wouldn't play it out).

A small stack wanted 3k. I wouldn't entertain that. Because that takes 1k from 1st-3rd. We played on.

[/ QUOTE ]

Next time insist on 10K, it'll work out somehow (likely from the 7.5K stacks when they realize the difference is $167 each). Also, if the money is important, take the deal anyway.

As it stands, fold, the edge (if any) isn't worth it.

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This was my biggest regret from the tourney. I do think it would have worked out had I just insisted on 10k and let the others decide how to chop the final 20k.



FWIW to you call with A9 if you magically KNOW you are against 88- or A8-

[adanthar]

yes, very quickly

[seke2]

Gotcha.

I don't really think that Hand 3's range is overly wide in the first hand. If anything, it might be too tight, especially if blinds are 400/800. He's got a player who seems weak making a bad UTG bet for over 30% of his stack, and he's a good player. His range to get it in and try to isolate against this other bad player should be wide.

Anyway, it seems like it should have been a close decision, since it's very slightly +EV. But despite you having more chips than the rest of your table, you really don't have that big of a stack with the current blinds/antes and you can't really bully all that much.

In Hand 2, look, if you were totally convinced on that read, then go with it. That's an advantage of playing in person. If his range is as wide as you say, especially if you're in the blinds, it's a call.

But if the money matters to you, and you were willing to take the 10k, like adanthar said, you should have made that deal happen. Even if you had to give up a little bit. It sounds like you turned it down on principle.

Both decisions, from a +EV perspctive seem to have been right on the margin. In the first one, I'd take it since we're still trying very hard to accumulate at that stage in the tournament. The second one, I fold because of the $EV implications of being wrong, and in your shoes, I think the utility of the payouts also suggests that a fold makes sense.

[peterchi]

I'm folding hand 1. Your edge is small if it exists at all. For that amount of your stack I think you can pick a better spot than this. Yes the blind sizes are a decent argument for a call, but not quite enough I don't think.

Hand 2 looks really read-dependant. Looks like you knew everything you needed to know and owned him.

[peterchi]

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Both decisions, from a +EV perspctive seem to have been right on the margin. In the first one, I'd take it since we're still trying very hard to accumulate at that stage in the tournament.

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This is a good point, and I'm not sure if I can disagree with it.

[jon_1van]

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Both decisions, from a +EV perspctive seem to have been right on the margin. In the first one, I'd take it since we're still trying very hard to accumulate at that stage in the tournament.

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This is a good point, and I'm not sure if I can disagree with it.

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Me neither.