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#11
05-19-2006, 02:27 PM
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Results
I did check, but it was checked around. The river came the Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and this time I bet, picking up bets from 3 queens and a confused pocket pair, so I scooped.
The results aren't important though. In this spot UTG opened with a high hand and CO cold-called 3 w/ a high hand, which isn't a typical scenario. MP1 must have held a counterfeited low hand. I do think most of the time I can expect a bet from MP1 or CO, and possibly another raise before it comes back to me. Any A2 is betting when checked to for sure, and it's reasonable for one to be out. Also, other low hands might bet, as could 2-pair. These are slightly less likely given the passive flop betting round when MP1 or CO would likely raise stuff like Q3 on rainbow board in a big pot. Giving free cards to diamonds or A5 is pretty bad though. Another option is to simply bet the turn. There's a reasonable chance that bet gets raised, and even by a lot worse high hands given the pot size and dry-ish board. Facing a heads-up raise from A2 + a diamond draw kinda blows though, and my freeroll is super-small if any sort of A2 decides to iso-raise. I also might fold hands that can make 2nd best highs on the river. Anyway, as O8 boards go this one isn't very scary. I think the turn is a check based on the most likely hands for MP1 + CO, as well as the deception I create by acting weak + possibly initiating some stealing action. Leading out again is fine, and it represents a made hand I do not have (A2) which is also deceptive, but I'd rather "tell the truth" here about my low. Convincing an A2 that his low is best helps a thinking LAG talk himself into calling or raising with a marginal high hand in a big pot, hoping to increase chances of splitting/scooping by the river. My subsequent raise/3-bet will be just as confusing, and probably force a showdown from both hands. All of this centers around 1) the rarity of this turn getting checked through given previous action + opponents, and 2) aggressive players' propensity to continue with or protect a high hand in a big pot given board texture. Unfortunately the results don't support this at all, but I don't think that necessarily disproves anything. 
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#12
05-19-2006, 02:35 PM
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Re: 75/150 I have FPS?
[ QUOTE ]
I would bet thurn but check-raise a safe river. Somebody has A2 in a 75-150 game [/ QUOTE ] But I have equity now. By waiting (given you agree with my turn parlay, which you seem to), I'm forced to miss betting opportunities on scare cards and miss extra bets from busted draws and high hands that have now become scared (i.e. A376 on the actual river card). There will also be many times when I reach the river 3-handed and my river check would look a lot like a naked A2, which forces me to bet instead. It's either turn c/r - bet river, or bet-bet, I think. Waiting for the river is worse than either (and usually is in this game, given the abundance of possible scare cards that frighten you or your opponents in passivity).
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