Look death in the eye and laugh. $77 reg, AQ hand, late.

[AMT]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, so my title is melodramatic, but here is a common spot, you've raised a large hand on the bubble and someone has repushed. Reads are important. Even while ten tabling, I saw that this opponent used to have a huge stack that he was pushing around on the bubble, about 1.75 times per orbit (like a little less than two out of three spots that he could). The guy to his left doubled up through him a few hands ago. Also, I just restole by pushing all in off the guy to his left two hands ago and I get the vibe off him that he is frisky and wants to be active on the bubble. By not pushing here, he may take that as weakness.

So without further ado:
PartyPoker $77 Regular Tournament, Big Blind is t600 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t2308)
Hero (t5470)
SB (t6018)
BB (t6204)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t1600</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to t6018 (All-in)</font>, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>

Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

1) adieu is spelled wrong. its french.

2) very valid comments so far that im too lazy to directly quote. dont raise yourself into a corner. with your own read you should be insta-calling as played but in general you should be pushing PF. i can even see a limp PF to induce a push but i dont like the line.

[vinyard]

[ QUOTE ]
1) adieu is spelled wrong. its french.

[/ QUOTE ]
Umm, wrong ado. That's always a risk to being a nit and correcting other folks' grammar on the internet.

[billxo1b]

[ QUOTE ]
$-EV wise, you honestly should fold this now, even if he were to turn his 75s face-up on the table.

[/ QUOTE ]

huh? the call against 75s is +1.4%

[UMTerp]

Fine then, T9s or K3s or whatever. I gave a bad example without looking at the math. I was just trying to illustrate how important it is to push rather than raise less, which remains true.

[billxo1b]

actually it is +ev against any non-paired hand except AK

[Ditch Digger]

[ QUOTE ]
actually it is +ev against any non-paired hand except AQ/AK

[/ QUOTE ]

Who cares about EV? I care about money, calling here is giving away a ton of cash.

Not shoving initially is pretty bad. Side note, if SB is doing this with 75s he's a bigger donk.

[MadScientist]

Quote:"Fine then, T9s or K3s or whatever. I gave a bad example without looking at the math. I was just trying to illustrate how important it is to push rather than raise less, which remains true."

Which translated means: I don't have a [censored] clue what I'm talking about because I didn't look at the math.
Look EV is not something you have a feeling about. It is a well defined quantity which you calculate.

I think the responses to my post have been thought provoking , but they are almost all wrong.

This call (with a huge pot already) only needs to have a winning percentage of 55.6 to be profitable.
Against K3s, AQo is 60.8% for a nice profit!

Bill Poker's analysis was correct. AK is the only non pair to be concerned about.
Against the top 20% of hands, which is less than what I put him on, the call is correct.
In addition, stacks are still deep enough that I am flat called occasionally. In addition, I can make this raise with hands that I would throw away here and so I can steal the blinds more often.
I find it interesting that so many people assumed they could guess the mathmatically corrrect answer and did not bother actually calculating anything.
I also think that I would fold this push if it was the BB who was making it. This fold would be very profitable. His range is TT+, AK. A normal, tightish range.
This is why I think the raise is so much more profitable.

[uminchu]

[ QUOTE ]
dont raise yourself into a corner. with your own read you should be insta-calling as played but in general you should be pushing PF. i can even see a limp PF to induce a push but i dont like the line.

[/ QUOTE ]

[MadScientist]

limping pf is totally different. You then have to be a 64.2% favorite which you can not be. Then the call is horrible.
limping &lt; pushing &lt; raising

The real reason that people like pushing is so they do not have to play post flop poker.

[cha59]

[ QUOTE ]
limping pf is totally different. You then have to be a 64.2% favorite which you can not be. Then the call is horrible.
limping &lt; pushing &lt; raising

The real reason that people like pushing is so they do not have to play post flop poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow. thats all I have to say. wow.