1/2: 109s straight flush draw - Page 2

car ramrod · #11 05-01-2006, 02:59 PM

I think you played it well. I am calling this river, you may see a boat here so I wouldn't raise.

Just saw that you were asking about 3betting the turn. No reason to. Calling is good.

yellowbluebus · #12 05-01-2006, 03:40 PM

You equity on the turn is not as big as it was on the flop. I would roughly estimate it at 24% (9 hearts + 3 jacks). If all 4 players stay on the turn you contribute 25% to the pot. A call on the turn is good. Well played.

Swax · #13 05-01-2006, 04:11 PM

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You equity on the turn is not as big as it was on the flop. I would roughly estimate it at 24% (9 hearts + 3 jacks). If all 4 players stay on the turn you contribute 25% to the pot. A call on the turn is good. Well played.

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24% is our equity on an unpaired board. To calculate our equity here, we have to reduce the 24% by whatever chance we think that BB already has a boat (i.e., if we think BB has a boat 25% of the time here, our equity drops to 18%). Not to mention we really have only 8 hearts (I'd be hard-pressed to think that the three of hearts, which double pairs the board, is really an out here).

Honestly, I don't really think that raising the turn is a good play here even with an unpaired board (it's not a value raise, and as a semi-bluff it sure ain't folding anybody given that pot size and action). When you add the board pairing on top of that, the play goes from bad to really bad (not OP's play, which I think is good, meaning the play of raising the turn like in OP's original question).

Andy Ross · #14 05-01-2006, 04:20 PM

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So this will rub some people the wrong way, but just call the river.

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It's still a pretty benign board. I could agree with you if the board was something like KQQJ8, but Q8843 just doesn't have the right texture to make me expect to see a boat more often than not. The reasonable holdings that have us beat are 33 and Q8, and I suppose 84. We beat a lot more hands than beat us.

I think that the river is a clear value raise, but getting 3bet would not be good news.

yellowbluebus · #15 05-01-2006, 04:34 PM

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24% is our equity on an unpaired board. To calculate our equity here, we have to reduce the 24% by whatever chance we think that BB already has a boat (i.e., if we think BB has a boat 25% of the time here, our equity drops to 18%). Not to mention we really have only 8 hearts (I'd be hard-pressed to think that the three of hearts, which double pairs the board, is really an out here).

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I didn't count the outs carefully and didn't discount them either for the possible boat. Good eye.

Swax · #16 05-01-2006, 04:48 PM

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So this will rub some people the wrong way, but just call the river.

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It's still a pretty benign board. I could agree with you if the board was something like KQQJ8, but Q8843 just doesn't have the right texture to make me expect to see a boat more often than not. The reasonable holdings that have us beat are 33 and Q8, and I suppose 84. We beat a lot more hands than beat us.

I think that the river is a clear value raise, but getting 3bet would not be good news.

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Hmmm - I've mostly been foucsed on the turn, but you do raise an interesting point about the river.

Normally I'd agree that this is a very non-threatening board, but were talking about the BB in an unraised pot, so 33, Q8, 83 are all well within the realm of possibility.

Not to mention, look at the action. BB 3-bet us on the flop - no biggie, many players will do this with just top pair. However, the 2nd 8 hit the turn and MP3 donked, BB still raised. To me this shows that BB isn't scared of trips. I've seen people bust out some serious FPS with AA or KK at this level for some odd reason, but barring that, I really doubt that BB is dicking around raising that board with some crap like Q10 or something. Although you are definitely correct that there are more hands that we beat than beat us, I just don't see most of those hands being played in this manner.

I would be a lot more inclined to make a value raise here if I thought that MP3 would call it and we would be getting 2-to-1, but considering his donk-and-call play is so indicative of trip eights that he's not really happy with, I don't think he's calling this raise here with a flush card hitting. Therefore, I'm thinking that we're only getting even money on a potential raise, and hence I'm not real thrilled about busting it out.

Shillx · #17 05-01-2006, 05:05 PM

Raise preflop

Nice hand

I don't see why you want to 3-bet the turn with a draw and just call the river with a flush. Just doesn't make sense dude. I would much rather raise the river then 3-bet the turn.

Swax · #18 05-01-2006, 05:16 PM

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Raise preflop

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Care to explain this?

I'm not disagreeing with you - I actually don't think I make this type of play enough...I get stuck in that "drawing hand - goal is to see cheap flop" mode - but how many players do we need to make this a good raise?

rjacobs003 · #19 05-01-2006, 05:50 PM

I like the intial raise on the flop but I wouldn't cap it. I'd just call the 3-bet. From there its a call-down for me - think you have the pot odds for it.

xJames2112 · #20 05-01-2006, 10:08 PM

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Raise preflop

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That's not a bad idea. I do make this play with Axs many times when I have the button and lots of donks limping in.

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PS - nice avatar. I still have difficulty with the fact that there will never be another Bungle album.

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Yeah me too. I had a bad enough time when Faith No More broke up.