Big pot OOP deep

[thac]

Pokey - Do you think a solid opponent is putting much more money in when the board becomes 9876, or 9865 or T986? I don't think your implied odds are as good as you make them out to be. Also, the fish just called all-in, he can definitely just have ace high here, it's not like he's got us crushed. He had one PSB left and it went in when our opponent bet the pot.

Also, I don't see us getting a free river card very often at all if we just call and the turn is a deuce or a trey.

[KEW]

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Pokey - Do you think a solid opponent is putting much more money in when the board becomes 9876, or 9865 or T986? I don't think your implied odds are as good as you make them out to be. Also, the fish just called all-in, he can definitely just have ace high here, it's not like he's got us crushed. He had one PSB left and it went in when our opponent bet the pot.

Also, I don't see us getting a free river card very often at all if we just call and the turn is a deuce or a trey.

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If we raise the flop and BB calls are you willing to shove UI on the turn?????

[members_only]

Surely the fact that the pot is protected cuts into your equity a lot here? If it was just you vs BB, the times you make him fold, you pick up the pot and profit immediately, but here you have to beat CO as well as that

[thac]

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Pokey - Do you think a solid opponent is putting much more money in when the board becomes 9876, or 9865 or T986? I don't think your implied odds are as good as you make them out to be. Also, the fish just called all-in, he can definitely just have ace high here, it's not like he's got us crushed. He had one PSB left and it went in when our opponent bet the pot.

Also, I don't see us getting a free river card very often at all if we just call and the turn is a deuce or a trey.

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If we raise the flop and BB calls are you willing to shove UI on the turn?????

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It depends on the opponent, but with that much extra money in the pot, probably. It's still a huge call even after he called the flop bet cause there's 2 more buyins coming in on the turn, and it's exactly how I'd play a set.. so yeah.

[Pokey]

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Pokey - Do you think a solid opponent is putting much more money in when the board becomes 9876, or 9865 or T986?


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Well, that REALLY depends on what he's got. Some of his range will be sets, here -- 88/99/TT -- and some of it will be big overpairs. If we make a weak "blocking" turn bet of half the pot, villain could very easily get frisky and push over the top on a semibluff, letting us snap-call with the best of it. Alternately, we could check when we hit and hope that villain decides to value-bet his hand. Remember, we really don't need much more equity to make this +EV, but the more we get, the better.

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I don't think your implied odds are as good as you make them out to be.


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No, I'm not saying we're stacking villain whenever we hit. I'm just saying that the pot odds are nearly enough to make calling +EV. Even if we autofold the turn every time we miss, we only need to extract an extra 1/4th-pot from villain somewhere between the turn and river combined to make calling EV-neutral. I know he's a decent player and all, but I can't imagine not being able to get at least 1/4th-pot out of him. Oh, and if it were impossible for us to extract 1/4th-pot extra on this hand, then we're almost surely going to get a free card on the turn, which means we've got the pot odds to call immediately. One way or another, this is a +EV call.

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Also, the fish just called all-in, he can definitely just have ace high here, it's not like he's got us crushed. He had one PSB left and it went in when our opponent bet the pot.


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The only way I can really see fishy calling all-in with a hand that doesn't beat us is if he's got 76 or JT. The board has no flush draws and the betting has been a bit scary; do we really think fishy is calling with AJ? I mean, anything's possible, but I just don't find it likely.

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Also, I don't see us getting a free river card very often at all if we just call and the turn is a deuce or a trey.

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Villain is either aggressive enough to bet the turn and give us our implied odds or passive enough to give us a free card and sufficient pot odds to call. This "psychic villain syndrome" stuff is very tempting, but it's not realistic. After the pot is protected there is a $0 side pot; villain is going to be very hesitant to start one without a monster. Sure, if he's got 99 he's going to fire the turn, but if he's got 99 he's going to fire the turn even if we hit our straight. He can't know what we've got, so he's going to make a mistake on the turn, and whichever mistake he makes is going to make our flop play +EV.

[thac]

Pokey, I was going off of OP's assumption where he said "I am positive he has a big pair." If he has 88 or 99, yes, he'll bet the turn, but he still slows down if the obvious straight hits because even if we don't have it, we're probably not calling much more without it (MUBS syndrome basically).

Even though calling is +EV, it doesn't mean it is the most +EV line. If we call, and turn our straight in a $30 pot with $140 behind, we might make another $30-60 depending on villain.

Here are some outcomes of the hand in just pure speculation:

- If we raise to $40 on the flop it freezes up villain, and leaves us with $107 into a $90 pot. Even if villain calls here, he will sometimes fold on the turn to our overbet shove, which will net us $32.5 immediately, even without winning the main pot.

- If we turn a straight or a set after raising, we can bet like $40 or something ridiculously small and hopefully get him to call, leaving us with $67 into a $170 pot.

- If we blank on the turn and he calls our shove, we're still around 21% equity to complete our hand and if we hit, we win a $310 pot and we get all the action we could ever want from villain in future pots.


Just because calling is +EV, doesn't mean it will net us the most money in the longterm. Sure we can lose 3 buyins, but the only way to win 3 buyins is to not be scared to lose it. We want to maximize our equity with a decent hand, not limit our losses when we're taking slightly the worst of it.

[kaz2107]

i cr this hand basically everytime. this is why playin these hands oop while deep is fine. u say villian is good so if u make a not pussy raise to like 30 sumtin the pot is already out of control and basically his whole range is 1 pair hands and then a few random hands scattered in their (most of them AK type hands and then a small percent of sets and such)

never played on ipoker but a commitent villian folds here everytime give ur image and his nittyness. so then u r gettin sick odds againsts the fishes HUGE range and r in GREAT shape. looks like a pretty easy raise to me. villian just cant procede and even if he makes a bad call u have outs to the best hand n e wayz

[thac]

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i cr this hand basically everytime. this is why playin these hands oop while deep is fine. u say villian is good so if u make a not pussy raise to like 30 sumtin the pot is already out of control and basically his whole range is 1 pair hands and then a few random hands scattered in their (most of them AK type hands and then a small percent of sets and such)

never played on ipoker but a commitent villian folds here everytime give ur image and his nittyness. so then u r gettin sick odds againsts the fishes HUGE range and r in GREAT shape. looks like a pretty easy raise to me. villian just cant procede and even if he makes a bad call u have outs to the best hand n e wayz

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I agree, but you needs a spell checker.

[Jever]

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- If we blank on the turn and he calls our shove, we're still around 21% equity to complete our hand and if we hit, we win a $310 pot and we get all the action we could ever want from villain in future pots.


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But only with 50$ effective stacks.

[kaz2107]

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i cr this hand basically everytime. this is why playin these hands oop while deep is fine. u say villian is good so if u make a not pussy raise to like 30 sumtin the pot is already out of control and basically his whole range is 1 pair hands and then a few random hands scattered in their (most of them AK type hands and then a small percent of sets and such)

never played on ipoker but a commitent villian folds here everytime give ur image and his nittyness. so then u r gettin sick odds againsts the fishes HUGE range and r in GREAT shape. looks like a pretty easy raise to me. villian just cant procede and even if he makes a bad call u have outs to the best hand n e wayz

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I agree, but you needs a spell checker.

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